Nassim Taleb showed a 57-year options portfolio where a single day accounted for 80–99% of its total lifetime variation: “if you don’t get that day right, you’re not going to get anything right.”
this is him explaining why trying to predict the next black swan is the wrong game. the better setup is to make repeated bets where the downside stays small but one rare winner can pay for everything: “convexity matters a lot more than knowledge.”
for startups, Taleb turns that into one rule - keep optionality. don’t lock yourself into one business plan, make errors cheap enough that you can keep experimenting, and stay exposed to upside that isn’t capped. his point is that many breakthroughs came from people who didn’t know exactly where they were going, but could afford to be wrong repeatedly.
“you want mistakes to be small and gains to be large.”
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Nassim Taleb showed a 57-year options portfolio where a single day accounted for 80–99% of its total lifetime variation: “if you don’t get that day right, you’re not going to get anything right.”
this is him explaining why trying to predict the next black swan is the wrong game. the better setup is to make repeated bets where the downside stays small but one rare winner can pay for everything: “convexity matters a lot more than knowledge.”
for startups, Taleb turns that into one rule - keep optionality. don’t lock yourself into one business plan, make errors cheap enough that you can keep experimenting, and stay exposed to upside that isn’t capped. his point is that many breakthroughs came from people who didn’t know exactly where they were going, but could afford to be wrong repeatedly.
“you want mistakes to be small and gains to be large.”
bookmark & watch
Bill Ackman shows how $10,000 invested at 22 could become $25 million over 43 years at 20% a year - then shows how losing half your money just once every 12 years cuts that ending value to $1.8 million: “one of the most valuable assets you have today is your youth.”
this is him explaining finance through a lemonade stand, why avoiding huge losses matters more than chasing the highest possible return, and what he looks for in a business he could theoretically own forever.
“if the stock market were to close for 10 years you wouldn’t be unhappy.” Ackman says the real test is understanding how the business makes money, paying a reasonable price, avoiding too much debt, and having the stomach to do the opposite of the crowd: “in bubbles you probably should be a seller. in busts you should probably be a buyer.”
bookmark & watch the full lecture ↓
Bill Ackman shows how $10,000 invested at 22 could become $25 million over 43 years at 20% a year - then shows how losing half your money just once every 12 years cuts that ending value to $1.8 million: “one of the most valuable assets you have today is your youth.”
this is him explaining finance through a lemonade stand, why avoiding huge losses matters more than chasing the highest possible return, and what he looks for in a business he could theoretically own forever.
“if the stock market were to close for 10 years you wouldn’t be unhappy.” Ackman says the real test is understanding how the business makes money, paying a reasonable price, avoiding too much debt, and having the stomach to do the opposite of the crowd: “in bubbles you probably should be a seller. in busts you should probably be a buyer.”
bookmark & watch the full lecture ↓
Bill Ackman shows how $10,000 invested at 22 could become $25 million over 43 years at 20% a year - then shows how losing half your money just once every 12 years cuts that ending value to $1.8 million: “one of the most valuable assets you have today is your youth.”
this is him explaining finance through a lemonade stand, why avoiding huge losses matters more than chasing the highest possible return, and what he looks for in a business he could theoretically own forever.
“if the stock market were to close for 10 years you wouldn’t be unhappy.” Ackman says the real test is understanding how the business makes money, paying a reasonable price, avoiding too much debt, and having the stomach to do the opposite of the crowd: “in bubbles you probably should be a seller. in busts you should probably be a buyer.”
bookmark & watch the full lecture ↓
this pure masterclass from Yale professor explains investment banking, breaking down decades of studying financial crises and showing why pure investment banking was fundamentally destroyed in 2008
when Lehman Brothers collapsed after a massive bank run on repo markets, giants like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were forced to give up their pure investment banking status just to survive
this is the tape of his famous Yale lecture breaking down the brutal reality of Wall Street:
• 03:46 - how investment banking differs from commercial banking
• 12:45 - the secret principles of Goldman Sachs that built an empire
• 17:19 - how Glass-Steagall split Wall Street in 1933
• 28:06 - how the shadow banking repo run brought down Lehman Brothers
• 35:46 - what a 100 hour work week looks like for a Wall Street analyst
• 53:56 - transitioning from investment banking to Silicon Valley giant Facebook
bookmark & watch this rare lecture for free
this pure masterclass from Yale professor explains investment banking, breaking down decades of studying financial crises and showing why pure investment banking was fundamentally destroyed in 2008
when Lehman Brothers collapsed after a massive bank run on repo markets, giants like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were forced to give up their pure investment banking status just to survive
this is the tape of his famous Yale lecture breaking down the brutal reality of Wall Street:
• 03:46 - how investment banking differs from commercial banking
• 12:45 - the secret principles of Goldman Sachs that built an empire
• 17:19 - how Glass-Steagall split Wall Street in 1933
• 28:06 - how the shadow banking repo run brought down Lehman Brothers
• 35:46 - what a 100 hour work week looks like for a Wall Street analyst
• 53:56 - transitioning from investment banking to Silicon Valley giant Facebook
bookmark & watch this rare lecture for free
this pure masterclass from Yale professor explains investment banking, breaking down decades of studying financial crises and showing why pure investment banking was fundamentally destroyed in 2008
when Lehman Brothers collapsed after a massive bank run on repo markets, giants like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were forced to give up their pure investment banking status just to survive
this is the tape of his famous Yale lecture breaking down the brutal reality of Wall Street:
• 03:46 - how investment banking differs from commercial banking
• 12:45 - the secret principles of Goldman Sachs that built an empire
• 17:19 - how Glass-Steagall split Wall Street in 1933
• 28:06 - how the shadow banking repo run brought down Lehman Brothers
• 35:46 - what a 100 hour work week looks like for a Wall Street analyst
• 53:56 - transitioning from investment banking to Silicon Valley giant Facebook
bookmark & watch this rare lecture for free
Daniel Kahneman spent decades studying psychology only to prove that humans don't actually want to be happy.
They want to have good memories - and those two things constantly sabotage each other.
"We don't choose between experiences, we choose between memories of experiences."
This is the tape of his TED talk breaking down the trap behind human satisfaction.
He explains why a 20-minute glorious symphony is ruined in your mind by one screeching sound at the end.
Why extending a painful medical procedure actually makes patients remember it as less painful.
How emotional happiness completely peaks at $60,000/year while memory satisfaction keeps chasing money.
"The remembering self forces us through life just to collect stories."
bookmark & watch the full breakdown below
This pure masterclass from Steve Jobs explains turning a struggling graphics company into Pixar:
In 1985, Steve Jobs bought a tiny computer animation division from George Lucas for $5 million and spent 10 painful years funding it out of his own pocket before releasing Toy Story, the world's first fully 3D animated feature film.
"All these technology boxes and software have a life of 2 to 5 years, but the story of Snow White has renewed itself for 60 years. People will still be watching Toy Story in 60 years."
This is the tape of a rare 1996 interview where Jobs breaks down how he built Pixar into a powerhouse.
He explains why Silicon Valley relies on the carrot (stock options) while Hollywood uses the stick (strict long-term contracts).
"In Silicon Valley when you have rare talent, the hierarchy of power inverts. The CEO is actually at the bottom, working for the brilliant people on the front lines."
"No amount of technology can turn a bad story into a good story."
bookmark & watch this tape
This pure masterclass from Steve Jobs explains turning a struggling graphics company into Pixar:
In 1985, Steve Jobs bought a tiny computer animation division from George Lucas for $5 million and spent 10 painful years funding it out of his own pocket before releasing Toy Story, the world's first fully 3D animated feature film.
"All these technology boxes and software have a life of 2 to 5 years, but the story of Snow White has renewed itself for 60 years. People will still be watching Toy Story in 60 years."
This is the tape of a rare 1996 interview where Jobs breaks down how he built Pixar into a powerhouse.
He explains why Silicon Valley relies on the carrot (stock options) while Hollywood uses the stick (strict long-term contracts).
"In Silicon Valley when you have rare talent, the hierarchy of power inverts. The CEO is actually at the bottom, working for the brilliant people on the front lines."
"No amount of technology can turn a bad story into a good story."
bookmark & watch this tape
This pure masterclass from a young Elon Musk explains building PayPal and founding SpaceX:
A 31 year old Elon Musk was fresh off selling PayPal to eBay for $1.5 billion, but instead of retiring, he dumped his entire fortune into building affordable rockets - a move every investor in Silicon Valley called financial suicide for a company that is now valued at over $350 billion
"The fastest way to make a small fortune in the aerospace industry is to start with a large one."
This is the tape of his 2003 Stanford lecture breaking down how he built his early empire
"When we demonstrated PayPal, we showed people all these complex financial features and they went 'ho-hum'. Then we showed them how to email money, and they went 'WOW'."
"Being obsessive-compulsive is a good thing in this context. If you don't like what you're doing, life is too short."
bookmark and watch this rare video
This pure masterclass from a young Elon Musk explains building PayPal and founding SpaceX:
A 31 year old Elon Musk was fresh off selling PayPal to eBay for $1.5 billion, but instead of retiring, he dumped his entire fortune into building affordable rockets - a move every investor in Silicon Valley called financial suicide for a company that is now valued at over $350 billion
"The fastest way to make a small fortune in the aerospace industry is to start with a large one."
This is the tape of his 2003 Stanford lecture breaking down how he built his early empire
"When we demonstrated PayPal, we showed people all these complex financial features and they went 'ho-hum'. Then we showed them how to email money, and they went 'WOW'."
"Being obsessive-compulsive is a good thing in this context. If you don't like what you're doing, life is too short."
bookmark and watch this rare video
This pure masterclass from a young Elon Musk explains building PayPal and founding SpaceX:
A 31 year old Elon Musk was fresh off selling PayPal to eBay for $1.5 billion, but instead of retiring, he dumped his entire fortune into building affordable rockets - a move every investor in Silicon Valley called financial suicide for a company that is now valued at over $350 billion
"The fastest way to make a small fortune in the aerospace industry is to start with a large one."
This is the tape of his 2003 Stanford lecture breaking down how he built his early empire
"When we demonstrated PayPal, we showed people all these complex financial features and they went 'ho-hum'. Then we showed them how to email money, and they went 'WOW'."
"Being obsessive-compulsive is a good thing in this context. If you don't like what you're doing, life is too short."
bookmark and watch this rare video
This pure masterclass from Steve Jobs explains life, career, and overcoming failure:
Steve Jobs never graduated from college, yet in 2005 he delivered what became the most famous commencement address in history, sharing three personal stories that shaped his entire life and empire.
After getting publicly fired at age 30 from Apple - the company he built from his parents' garage - he turned devastating failure into the most creative period of his career.
"Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life."
This is the tape of his iconic Stanford speech:
• 08:08 - why dropping out of college led him to a random calligraphy class that saved the Mac
• 12:18 - how connecting the dots only works looking backwards, never forwards
• 13:24 - getting fired from Apple and starting over with NeXT and Pixar
• 15:40 - why loving your work is the only way to avoid settling in life
• 17:35 - getting diagnosed with cancer and using death as the ultimate decision-making tool
• 21:17 - the story behind the legendary phrase: stay hungry, stay foolish
bookmark & watch this tape
This pure masterclass from Steve Jobs explains life, career, and overcoming failure:
Steve Jobs never graduated from college, yet in 2005 he delivered what became the most famous commencement address in history, sharing three personal stories that shaped his entire life and empire.
After getting publicly fired at age 30 from Apple - the company he built from his parents' garage - he turned devastating failure into the most creative period of his career.
"Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life."
This is the tape of his iconic Stanford speech:
• 08:08 - why dropping out of college led him to a random calligraphy class that saved the Mac
• 12:18 - how connecting the dots only works looking backwards, never forwards
• 13:24 - getting fired from Apple and starting over with NeXT and Pixar
• 15:40 - why loving your work is the only way to avoid settling in life
• 17:35 - getting diagnosed with cancer and using death as the ultimate decision-making tool
• 21:17 - the story behind the legendary phrase: stay hungry, stay foolish
bookmark & watch this tape
This pure masterclass from Steve Jobs explains life, career, and overcoming failure:
Steve Jobs never graduated from college, yet in 2005 he delivered what became the most famous commencement address in history, sharing three personal stories that shaped his entire life and empire.
After getting publicly fired at age 30 from Apple - the company he built from his parents' garage - he turned devastating failure into the most creative period of his career.
"Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life."
This is the tape of his iconic Stanford speech:
• 08:08 - why dropping out of college led him to a random calligraphy class that saved the Mac
• 12:18 - how connecting the dots only works looking backwards, never forwards
• 13:24 - getting fired from Apple and starting over with NeXT and Pixar
• 15:40 - why loving your work is the only way to avoid settling in life
• 17:35 - getting diagnosed with cancer and using death as the ultimate decision-making tool
• 21:17 - the story behind the legendary phrase: stay hungry, stay foolish
bookmark & watch this tape
Daniel Kahneman spent decades studying psychology only to prove that humans don't actually want to be happy.
They want to have good memories - and those two things constantly sabotage each other.
"We don't choose between experiences, we choose between memories of experiences."
This is the tape of his TED talk breaking down the trap behind human satisfaction.
He explains why a 20-minute glorious symphony is ruined in your mind by one screeching sound at the end.
Why extending a painful medical procedure actually makes patients remember it as less painful.
How emotional happiness completely peaks at $60,000/year while memory satisfaction keeps chasing money.
"The remembering self forces us through life just to collect stories."
bookmark & watch the full breakdown below
Daniel Kahneman spent decades studying psychology only to prove that humans don't actually want to be happy.
They want to have good memories - and those two things constantly sabotage each other.
"We don't choose between experiences, we choose between memories of experiences."
This is the tape of his TED talk breaking down the trap behind human satisfaction.
He explains why a 20-minute glorious symphony is ruined in your mind by one screeching sound at the end.
Why extending a painful medical procedure actually makes patients remember it as less painful.
How emotional happiness completely peaks at $60,000/year while memory satisfaction keeps chasing money.
"The remembering self forces us through life just to collect stories."
bookmark & watch the full breakdown below
Daniel Kahneman spent decades studying psychology only to prove that humans don't actually want to be happy.
They want to have good memories - and those two things constantly sabotage each other.
"We don't choose between experiences, we choose between memories of experiences."
This is the tape of his TED talk breaking down the trap behind human satisfaction.
He explains why a 20-minute glorious symphony is ruined in your mind by one screeching sound at the end.
Why extending a painful medical procedure actually makes patients remember it as less painful.
How emotional happiness completely peaks at $60,000/year while memory satisfaction keeps chasing money.
"The remembering self forces us through life just to collect stories."
bookmark & watch the full breakdown below
Steve Wozniak designed the Apple I and Apple II entirely by himself without a college degree, writing all the hardware and programming languages from scratch.
To raise $1,000 in seed money, Jobs sold his VW bus and Wozniak sold his HP calculator - only for HP to reject their home computer idea five times.
"Steve didn't write code or design hardware, but every time I built something cute, he knew how to sell it."
This is the tape of Wozniak breaking down the madness of building Apple from zero into a billion-dollar giant.
He explains how they built "blue boxes" in college to hack AT&T's phone network for free calls and ended up prank-calling the Vatican posing as Henry Kissinger.
Why he gave away a massive portion of his personal Apple stock to early low-level employees and high school coders when the company went public.
How Apple almost sold out to Commodore for a few hundred thousand dollars until Commodore insisted people only wanted cheap machines without color or graphics.
"I had no money, which meant I had to figure out ways to do things inexpensively that no one had ever tried before."
bookmark & watch
Steve Wozniak designed the Apple I and Apple II entirely by himself without a college degree, writing all the hardware and programming languages from scratch.
To raise $1,000 in seed money, Jobs sold his VW bus and Wozniak sold his HP calculator - only for HP to reject their home computer idea five times.
"Steve didn't write code or design hardware, but every time I built something cute, he knew how to sell it."
This is the tape of Wozniak breaking down the madness of building Apple from zero into a billion-dollar giant.
He explains how they built "blue boxes" in college to hack AT&T's phone network for free calls and ended up prank-calling the Vatican posing as Henry Kissinger.
Why he gave away a massive portion of his personal Apple stock to early low-level employees and high school coders when the company went public.
How Apple almost sold out to Commodore for a few hundred thousand dollars until Commodore insisted people only wanted cheap machines without color or graphics.
"I had no money, which meant I had to figure out ways to do things inexpensively that no one had ever tried before."
bookmark & watch
Steve Wozniak designed the Apple I and Apple II entirely by himself without a college degree, writing all the hardware and programming languages from scratch.
To raise $1,000 in seed money, Jobs sold his VW bus and Wozniak sold his HP calculator - only for HP to reject their home computer idea five times.
"Steve didn't write code or design hardware, but every time I built something cute, he knew how to sell it."
This is the tape of Wozniak breaking down the madness of building Apple from zero into a billion-dollar giant.
He explains how they built "blue boxes" in college to hack AT&T's phone network for free calls and ended up prank-calling the Vatican posing as Henry Kissinger.
Why he gave away a massive portion of his personal Apple stock to early low-level employees and high school coders when the company went public.
How Apple almost sold out to Commodore for a few hundred thousand dollars until Commodore insisted people only wanted cheap machines without color or graphics.
"I had no money, which meant I had to figure out ways to do things inexpensively that no one had ever tried before."
bookmark & watch
In 1995, Bill Gates went on David Letterman to explain a bizarre new technology called the Internet.
The host mocked him, asking why anyone needed a computer to listen to a baseball game when radio and tape recorders already existed.
"Does radio ring a bell?"
This is the tape of Gates defending Microsoft's $100 billion vision in front of a skeptical national television audience.
He explains how a high school hack scheduling his own classes to be 80% girls turned into a 20 year obsession with desktop computing.
Why the internet was about to replace traditional media by letting niche communities connect around hyper-specific interests.
How he spent tens of millions building a 50,000 square foot house with digital screens showing customizable art and a dedicated trampoline room.
"Eventually we may figure out how to make the computer think, but nobody knows when that will happen."
bookmark & watch
In 1995, Bill Gates went on David Letterman to explain a bizarre new technology called the Internet.
The host mocked him, asking why anyone needed a computer to listen to a baseball game when radio and tape recorders already existed.
"Does radio ring a bell?"
This is the tape of Gates defending Microsoft's $100 billion vision in front of a skeptical national television audience.
He explains how a high school hack scheduling his own classes to be 80% girls turned into a 20 year obsession with desktop computing.
Why the internet was about to replace traditional media by letting niche communities connect around hyper-specific interests.
How he spent tens of millions building a 50,000 square foot house with digital screens showing customizable art and a dedicated trampoline room.
"Eventually we may figure out how to make the computer think, but nobody knows when that will happen."
bookmark & watch
In 1995, Bill Gates went on David Letterman to explain a bizarre new technology called the Internet.
The host mocked him, asking why anyone needed a computer to listen to a baseball game when radio and tape recorders already existed.
"Does radio ring a bell?"
This is the tape of Gates defending Microsoft's $100 billion vision in front of a skeptical national television audience.
He explains how a high school hack scheduling his own classes to be 80% girls turned into a 20 year obsession with desktop computing.
Why the internet was about to replace traditional media by letting niche communities connect around hyper-specific interests.
How he spent tens of millions building a 50,000 square foot house with digital screens showing customizable art and a dedicated trampoline room.
"Eventually we may figure out how to make the computer think, but nobody knows when that will happen."
bookmark & watch
In 1983, Steve Jobs showed up to a design conference in a tie because they paid him $60.
He predicted that computers would soon overtake books and TV, but warned the audience that every device on the market looked like trash.
"We're going to sell millions of these whether they look like a piece of shit or look great, so why not make them beautiful?"
This is the tape of his speech predicting the modern internet and mobile world 25 years before the iPhone.
He explains how Apple built Lisa to pave the way for putting a computer inside a book with a radio link.
Why software needs its own "radio station" to let users sample programs over phone lines before buying them.
How a 13-year-old kid created Aristotle Software and was making $4,000 a week selling games out of his bedroom.
"Computer programs capture the underlying principles of an experience, not just the experience itself."
bookmark & watch
In 1983, Steve Jobs showed up to a design conference in a tie because they paid him $60.
He predicted that computers would soon overtake books and TV, but warned the audience that every device on the market looked like trash.
"We're going to sell millions of these whether they look like a piece of shit or look great, so why not make them beautiful?"
This is the tape of his speech predicting the modern internet and mobile world 25 years before the iPhone.
He explains how Apple built Lisa to pave the way for putting a computer inside a book with a radio link.
Why software needs its own "radio station" to let users sample programs over phone lines before buying them.
How a 13-year-old kid created Aristotle Software and was making $4,000 a week selling games out of his bedroom.
"Computer programs capture the underlying principles of an experience, not just the experience itself."
bookmark & watch
In 1983, Steve Jobs showed up to a design conference in a tie because they paid him $60.
He predicted that computers would soon overtake books and TV, but warned the audience that every device on the market looked like trash.
"We're going to sell millions of these whether they look like a piece of shit or look great, so why not make them beautiful?"
This is the tape of his speech predicting the modern internet and mobile world 25 years before the iPhone.
He explains how Apple built Lisa to pave the way for putting a computer inside a book with a radio link.
Why software needs its own "radio station" to let users sample programs over phone lines before buying them.
How a 13-year-old kid created Aristotle Software and was making $4,000 a week selling games out of his bedroom.
"Computer programs capture the underlying principles of an experience, not just the experience itself."
bookmark & watch
Steve Jobs spent 10 years building PCs for management productivity - only to realize it was the wrong problem to solve.
After getting kicked out of Apple, he built NeXT and lost millions on a failed hardware cube that sold just 10,000 units.
"I think everybody lost. I lost, Apple lost, customers lost."
This is the tape of his 1992 MIT talk where he breaks down why he changed his entire strategy.
He explains how top companies spend the same 2% of revenue on IT, but the winners focus on custom operational software.
Why NeXT stopped building hardware prototypes for two years and treated their whole factory as a software project.
How focusing on object-oriented programming allowed tiny teams to build mission-critical apps 10 times faster than competitors.
"The code that never breaks is the code you don't write."
bookmark & watch