Olivia
Online
Badkidsfly
@0x_danf
GP@orthogonal Labs | prev. @Binancelabs
Hong Kong
Joined May 2009
5K Following
897 Followers
253 Posts
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Start my new endeavor: launching Orthogonal Labs (https://t.co/anVTsDalrj) - an evergreen crypto venture backed by seasoned builders, traders and investors from top tier companies in this space.
https://t.co/J2ToPMyUcb
Bullish - 原来所有的VC都还在看一级，并且在积极的投资，��然感觉不孤独了呢...
Totally-not-synchronized renaissance of crypto ventures
The shift in the crypto fundraising landscape the past 6 months has been insane.
Crypto VCs used to have to constantly be networking/writing/podcasting/going on spaces/promoting your thesis/getting on 10 deal flow calls a week, to get into good deals...now it's literally enough to just have capital to write checks.
Deals are being pushed rather than dug out. Inbound if people know you have money is at an all-time high.
Most firms are either 1) Out of money 2) Moved to Series A and beyond or 3) Fundraising (with no success).
Deals that used to close in 2-3 weeks now close in 2-3 months.
Firms with questionable business models or copy pasta of the latest trend are getting zero primary or follow-on funding (Good news!).
There are now realistically <20 firms writing checks in pre-seed/seed.
VCs basically have the pick of any deal they want, with more time to do DD.
IMHO 25/26 are going to be historic vintages for those who stick around.
every exploit is our industry's collective loss. reminder to never dance on someone's grave
@LeotheHorseman 昨天刚研究了下，应该是个赚钱的生意，吃到了跨境支付的核心利润。就看未来资本市场怎么定义OpenFX，是个做市商还是个infra平台。其实也是个不错的收购标的。
Finally, an agent that does more than just talk. D0 is built for high-stakes, 24/7 financial reality - not just a Twitter demo.
Impressive delivery from Donut Labs. The real work starts here. 🍩🚀
Introducing D0.
The first High-stake Proactive Agent for Financial Markets.
It monitors markets 24/7, identifies opportunities, manages risk, and executes trades, while you sleep.
Built by Donut Labs. Backed by AI experts, financial institutions and top-tier funds.
🧵👇
After a few weeks in SF, one thing stands out: AI people are more bullish on crypto than crypto people are on themselves.
There's this narrative forming in crypto that AI people think crypto is a joke. It's just not true. I keep hearing this over and over from AI people who remain bullish crypto. Hell, Sama, Jensen, Elon, Zuck, the biggest names in AI have all been publicly bullish on crypto and its convergence with AI.
Crypto's problem right now isn't that outsiders don't believe.
It's that insiders are playing scared.
https://t.co/OZN2011miA
做了半年 Donut 之后我们聚集了数百个交易员的真实数据。发现其实还没有实现正收益的大部分人，并不是看不懂行情，而是自己的交易策略不够完善。⬇️
最近我们采访了14位 Crypto 和金融的顶流交易员，聆听了他们的链上故事和经验分享，为你——币圈萌新小白/盈亏不定的玩家/总是慢人一步的钝感人群，系统化拆解了他们的交易逻辑，这篇红宝书旨在：
1、如果你是刚开始了解Crypto生态的新手小白，引导找准自身在币圈生态中的定位，帮你更全面的复盘过往的交易经验；
2、如果你是有一定经验的交易老手，带你进一步的��升信息效率和交易收益能力，在风险控制和情绪管理上更胜一筹；
一千个交易员有一千种实现正收益的解题思路，我们把其中 14 位怎么解这道题的过程写成了手册，免费送给你📕《穿越浪潮：2026年币圈顶流交易员生存手册》👉 https://t.co/0iw2ubCD8F
Building through the noise. Real substance + progress.
Private beta is now live.
Real markets are coming on-chain.
Liquid tokenized assets are inevitable.
https://t.co/clfJz8qtOG
I believe for a fund’s success, there’s always more to the story than what’s published.
That said, these takeaways are exceptionally solid, grounded, and actionable.
Respect. 🫡
https://t.co/x7wAw22WMn
Proud angel investor here. Honored to support @ballsyalchemist and @tenbinlabs since the early days.
The real breakthrough of Tenbin isn't just "putting assets on-chain"—it’s the shift from capital-heavy custody to a capital-efficient, derivative-hedged model via CME. This is how we truly bring emerging market yields to DeFi.
Grateful to be part of the journey alongside @glxyresearch. The future of RWA is being built right here.
LFG 🚀
I am excited to share that Tenbin raised a 7.1M seed round.
I have been working on this project in "stealth" for the past 8 months.
This is the story of why I started Tenbin...
又回到了之前和朋友讨论的话题，在Crypto的合规框架要落地的情况下，欧美的流量巨头会怎么做？
- 做一条公链，部署自己的生态；或者
- 变现流量，切入crypto的交易
看X的这一���会带来那些行业的变化
X is the best source for financial news -- and hundreds of billions of dollars are deployed based on things people read here.
We are building Smart Cashtags that allow you to specify the exact asset (or smart contract) when posting a ticker. From Timeline, users will be able to tap them to see its real-time price along with all mentions of that asset.
We're aiming to collect feedback as we iterate toward a public release next month.
@DeFi_Cheetah @Kalshi @Polymarket The answer probably is no coz it subtly changes the subject of the debates in the threads 😂
同意每一条
@bill_qian 哥，有个小小的建议，段落和段落能不能空一行，内容很筋道，但看着感觉都挤��一起了😝
也分享下vauge的观点：
- P/E的估值方法其实是对DCF的一种“偷懒”的表现方式。“懒”在: 1) 静态指标(P/E)，或者未来12个月的动态(FwD P/E)，没有对长期现金流的预测；2) earning并不是自由现金流。经典估值方法的核心还是DCF。
- 但资产一旦进入二级市场，价格基本上是有供需关系影响的，和DCF的估值方法论关系不大。价格上涨的原因其实只有一个就是“市场认为它会涨”。因为认为会涨所以会持有，所以会买入。
- “市场认为它会涨”的原因各种各样，DCF/价值投资、概念炒作、趋势投资都是。但DCF的意义在于提供一种被大部分人认同的估值共识，有了“锚”（但经常偏离）。
- Crypto市场一样，币价涨是因为“市场认为它会涨”，但crypto没有对估值的共识，没有“锚”，认为“它会涨”的理由多是技术叙事导向的情绪面。这个周期Altcoin普跌，因为“技术叙事”失效了。
- 除了短期PvP博弈外，crypto资产长期持有的理由是什么？暂时没有系统方法论，还处在“crypto DCF”发明之前的混沌阶段。但还是可以有个vague的标准 - 团队是不是经历过周期，是不是仍在hustle
- 经典的例子就是 $BNB 和 $SOL ，无论互相怎么竞争，可以看到团队在努力的push整个生态的持续和市值的增长。并且这种“push”是以user distribution为目标，强运营结果导向的，而不是自以为是的“无为而治”。
- 如果一定要找个底层的逻辑why - 或许是：只有持续的输出(marketing+traction)才能获得持续的关注(长期的)，才能获得市场的上涨预期。这里面其实还隐含一个条件，有持续的现金可以继续下去。
- 所以Vague的结论就是，在目前的crypto市场里，任何系统的估值体系都是无效的，评判的模糊标准，就是团队的状态以及是否有可持续的现金储备（对于“持有”而言，短期的“PvP”不在这个范畴内）。
每次点开发现那么长就关了，一直没读。
今天花时间读了下，体会了什么叫“听君一席话，胜似一席话”，的确够“vaguest”！
每次点开发现那么长就关了，一直没读。
今天花时间读了下，体会了什么叫“听君一席话，胜似一席话”，的确够“vaguest”！
In Defense of Exponentials
I used to tell founders, the reaction you are going to get to your launch is not hate, it’s indifference. By default, nobody cares about your new chain.
I have to stop telling them that now. Monad just launched this week, and I’ve never seen so much hate about a blockchain that just launched. I’ve been investing into crypto professionally for 7+ years now. Before 2023, almost every chain I’ve ever seen that launched was mostly met with enthusiasm or indifference.
But now, new chains are born into a chorus of hate. The amount of haters I’ve seen for projects like Monad, Tempo, MegaETH—before they even hit mainnet—is a genuinely new phenomenon.
I’ve been trying to diagnose: why is this happening now, and what does it mean about the psychology of this market?
The Cure is Worse than the Disease
Forewarning: this is going to be the vaguest blockchain valuation post you ever read. I don’t have any fancy metrics or charts to sell you on. Instead, I’ll be arguing against the zeitgeist of Crypto Twitter, which for the last couple of years, I’ve been constantly on the opposite side of.
In 2024, I felt like what I was arguing against was financial nihilism. Financial nihilism is the belief that none of these assets matter, it’s all memes at the end of the day, and everything we’ve built is inherently worthless.
Thankfully, that’s no longer the vibe. We have broken out of that spell.
But the zeitgeist now is what I’d call financial cynicism: OK, maybe some of this stuff has value, maybe it’s not all memes, but it’s grossly overvalued and it’s only a matter of time before Wall Street finds that out. Not that all chains are worthless. But these things are all maybe worth 1/5th-1/10th of what they’re currently trading at (have you seen these PE ratios?), and so you’d better pray like hell Wall Street doesn’t call us on our bluff, because once they do it’s all getting wiped out.
You’ve got many bullish analysts now trying to conjure up optimistic L1 valuation models, inflating PE ratios, gross margins, DCFs, trying to fight against this mood.
Late last year, Solana very proudly embraced REV as a metric that could finally justify their valuation. They proudly announced: we—and only we—are no longer bluffing to Wall Street!
And, of course, almost immediately after REV was embraced, it fell off a cliff (though $SOL, tellingly, did better than REV did).
Not that there’s anything wrong with REV. REV is a very clever metric. But the point of this post is not metric selection.
Then came the launch of Hyperliquid. A DEX that had real revenue and buybacks and PE multiples. And the chorus said—look, look I told you! Finally, for the first time ever, a token that has some real profits and a proper PE multiple. (Nevermind BNB, we don’t talk about that.) Hyperliquid will eat everything because obviously Ethereum and Solana don’t make any real money, we can stop pretending to value them now.
Hyperliquid, Pump, Sky, these buyback-heavy tokens are all great. But the market always had the ability to invest into exchanges. You could always buy Coinbase, or BNB, or whatever. We own $HYPE, and I agree that it’s a fantastic product.
But that’s not why people were investing in ETH and SOL. The fact that L1s don't have exchange-like profit margins is not why people were buying them—if they wanted that, they could’ve bought Coinbase stock.
So if I’m not critiquing blockchain financial metrics, maybe you think this post is going to be chiding the sinfulness of the token-industrial complex.
Obviously, everyone has lost money on tokens in the last year, VCs included. Alts are down bad this year. And so the other half of the zeitgeist on CT is arguing about who's to blame. Who’s become greedy? Are the VCs greedy? Is Wintermute greedy? Is Binance greedy? Are the farmers greedy? Are the founders greedy?
The answer, of course, is the same as it’s ever been.
Everyone is greedy. Everyone. The VCs, Wintermute, the farmers, Binance, the KOLs, they're all greedy, and you are greedy too. But it doesn't matter. Because no functioning market has ever required anyone to act against their self-interest. If we're right about crypto, we can all be greedy and the investments will still work out. Trying to analyze a market that has gone down by figuring out “who’s greedy” is going to be about as fruitful as commissioning witch trials. I guarantee you, nobody just started being greedy in 2025.
So this, too, is not what I’m going to be writing about.
Many people want me to write a post about why $MON should be valued at X or $MEGA at Y. I’m not interested in writing this post, or advocating that you buy anything in particular. In fact, you probably shouldn’t buy any of them if you don’t already believe in them.
Will any new challenger chain win? Who knows. But if it has a material chance of winning, it's going to be priced on that basis. If Ethereum is worth $300B or Solana is worth $80B, a project that has a 1-5% chance of becoming the next Ethereum or Solana will be priced according to those probabilities.
Somehow CT is scandalized by this, but it’s no different than Biotech. A drug that has less than a 10% chance of curing Alzheimer's is priced by the market as worth billions of dollars, even if 90% chance it won’t pass stage 3 trials and will go to 0. That's how the math works—and turns out, markets are pretty good at doing math. Binary outcomes are priced on probabilities, not on run rates or moral turpitude. It’s the “shut up and calculate” school of valuation.
I really don’t think that’s an interesting question to write about. “5% chance to win? No way, that’s clearly a 10% chance!” Markets, not articles, are the best way to assess that for any individual token.
So here’s what I am going to write about: CT doesn't seem to believe anymore that chains are valuable.
I don’t think this is because they don’t believe new chains can win market share. We just saw Solana dominate market share after emerging from the ashes less than 2 years ago. It’s not easy, but of course it’s possible.
It’s more that people have come to believe that even if a new chain wins, there’s no prize worth winning. If $ETH is just a meme, if it’ll never generate real revenue, then even if you win, you won’t be worth $300B. The contest is not worth winning, because these valuations are all bunk and it’ll all come crashing down before you go to claim your prize.
Being optimistic about chain valuations has become passé. Not that nobody is optimistic—obviously there must be optimists out there. For every seller there’s a buyer, and as much as CT cool kids love to drag L1s, people are comfortable buying SOL at $140, ETH at $3000.
But there’s a perception now that all the smartest people are over buying smart contract chains. Smart people know the jig is up. If not now, then soon. The only people buying here are suckers—Uber drivers, Tom Lee, and KOLs who say stuff like “trillions.” And maybe the US Treasury. But not the smart money.
This is bullshit. I don’t believe it, and you shouldn’t either.
So I felt like I had to write a smart person’s manifesto on why general purpose chains are valuable. This post is not about Monad or MegaETH. It’s really in defense of ETH and SOL. Because if you believe ETH and SOL are valuable, the rest is straight downstream.
Defending ETH and SOL valuations is generally not my job as a VC, but fuck it, if nobody else is willing to do it, then I’ll write it.
Feeling the Exponential
My partner Bo experienced the Chinese Internet boom first-hand as a VC. I’ve heard how “crypto is like the Internet” so many times now that it doesn’t even register for me anymore. But when I hear his stories, it always reminds me how costly it is to be wrong about these things.
A story he often tells is about when all the early e-commerce VCs (it was a small group back then) got together for coffee in the early 2000s. They debated: how big is the market for e-commerce going to be?
Is it going to be mostly electronics (maybe only techies will use PCs)? Could it ever work for women (perhaps they’re too tactile)? What about food (maybe impossible to manage perishables)? These were deeply important questions for early VCs to decide what to invest in and what prices to pay.
The answer, of course, was that literally every single one of them was devastatingly wrong. E-commerce would sell everything, and the target audience was the whole fucking world. But nobody at the time actually believed it. And even if they did, it would be too absurd to say out loud.
You just had to wait long enough for the exponential to show you. Even among the believers, very few thought e-commerce would become as big as it became. And those few who did, almost all of them became billionaires from just not selling. Every other VC—as Bo tells me, since he was one of them—sold too early.
It has become passé in crypto to believe in the exponential.
I believe in the crypto exponential. Because I’ve lived it.
When I started in crypto, nobody used this stuff. It was tiny and broken and awful. TVL on-chain was in the millions. We invested into the first generation of DeFi, MakerDAO, Compound, 1inch, back when they were science projects. I remember playing around on EtherDelta back when DEXes traded single digit millions a day, and that was considered to be a huge success. It was complete dogshit. Now we routinely trade in the tens of billions on-chain every day. I remember believing it was crazy that Tether hit a billion dollars in issuance and was being written up in the NYT as a ponzi scheme on the brink of shutdown. Now stablecoins are over $300B and regulated by the Federal Reserve.
I believe in the exponential because I’ve lived it. I’ve seen it over and over again.
But you might respond—well, stablecoin growth might be exponential, maybe DeFi volumes are exponential, but they don’t accrue to ETH or SOL. The value doesn’t get captured by the chains.
To which I answer: you still don’t believe in the exponential.
Because the exponential’s answer is always the same: it doesn’t matter. This stuff is going to be so much bigger than it is today. And when it’s absolutely enormous, you’ll make it up on scale.
Study this chart.
This is Amazon’s P&L from 1995 to 2019. That’s 24 years. Red is revenue, gray is profit. You see that little blip on the end where the gray line goes up? That’s when, 22 years in, Amazon started actually making a profit.
Amazon was 22 years old when this little gray line of net income first peeled off of 0. Every single year before then, there were op eds and critics and short sellers claiming that Amazon was a ponzi scheme that would never make any money.
Ethereum just turned 10 years old. This is what the first 10 years of Amazon stock looked like:
10 years of chop. All along the way, Amazon was beset with doubters and non-believers. Is e-commerce a VC-subsidized charity? They’re selling underpriced cheap low-quality knick-knacks to bargain hunters, who cares? How are they ever going to make actual money, like Walmart or GE?
If you were arguing about Amazon’s P/E ratio, you were in the wrong regime. That’s the regime of linear growth. But e-commerce was not a linear trend, and so every single person for 22 years arguing about P/E ratios was devastatingly wrong. No matter what you paid, no matter when you bought, you were not bullish enough.
Because that’s what exponentials do. When it comes to truly exponential technologies, no matter how big you think it’s going to get, it just keeps getting even bigger.
This is the thing that Silicon Valley has always understood better than Wall Street. Silicon Valley was raised on exponentials, while Wall Street was raised on linearity. And over the last few years, crypto’s center of gravity has migrated from Silicon Valley to Wall Street. You can feel it.
Granted, crypto growth doesn’t look as smooth as e-commerce’s growth. It’s burstier, it goes in fits and starts. This is because crypto, being about money, is deeply tied to macro forces, and it also has more violent regulatory push and pull than e-commerce. Crypto strikes at the heart of the state—money—and so it’s more unnerving to governments than e-commerce ever was.
But the exponential is no less inevitable. It's a crude argument. But if crypto is exponential, then the crude argument is correct.
Zoom out.
Financial assets want to be free. They want to be open. They want to be interconnected. Crypto turns financial assets into file formats, makes it as easy to send a dollar or a stock as to send a PDF. Crypto makes it possible for everything to talk to everything. It makes it all 24/7, global, interconnected, and open.
That will win. Open always wins.
If there’s no other lesson I've learned from the Internet, it’s that. Incumbents will fight against it, governments will huff and puff, but eventually they will give up against the adoption, the generativeness, the sheer efficiency that this technology enables. It’s what the Internet did to every other industry. Blockchains are how that same trend will gobble up all of finance and money.
Yes—with enough time—all of it.
An old saying goes: people overestimate what can happen in two years, but they underestimate what can happen in ten.
If you believe in the exponential, if you zoom out enough, then it’s all still cheap. And it should humble you that every day, the holders outlast the sellers and naysayers. Big capital has a longer time horizon than CT swing traders might lead you to believe. Big capital has been trained through history not to fade big technologies. You know, the big gushy story that originally got you to buy $ETH or $SOL? Big capital believes that story and hasn't stopped.
So what exactly am I arguing?
I am arguing that applying P/E ratios to smart contract chains (the “revenue meta,” as it’s now called), is giving up on the exponential. It means you have consigned this industry to the regime of linear growth. It means you believe 30 million DAUs on-chain and <1% of M2 is it. Crypto is just one of the things in the world. A sideshow. It did not win. It was not inevitable.
More than anything, I’m arguing to be a believer. Not just a believer, but a long-term believer.
I’m arguing that this exponential will be bigger than anything else you’ve been a part of in your life. That this is your e-commerce. That you will look back when you’re old and tell your kids—I was there when it all happened. Not everyone believed it was possible, that whole societies could change, that all of money and finance would be transformed by programs running on decentralized computers that we collectively owned.
But it actually happened. It changed the world.
And you were a part of it.
Disclosure: These are my own views. Dragonfly is an investor in $MON, $MEGA, $ETH, $SOL, $HYPE, $SKY among many other tokens. Dragonfly believes in the exponential. This is not investment advice, but is advice of another kind.
@LeotheHorseman 海王+端水大师！🤣
Thanks @infinityg_ai for the invite 🙏
New teams/builders are the upstream “assets” of the ecosystem — the variable that drives innovation and the potential new engines for the industry. They’re also the contrarians willing to go against the norm.
Always happy to see them come into the space and push things forward, even in a market this distorted.
Introducing @0x_danf, Founding Partner at https://t.co/1nv5y5fOKl, joining our mentor team for #SuperIndividual Incubation Camp Season 4!
Previously with @YZiLabs, Danny brings deep experience in Web3 venture building and guiding founders tackling bold, future-driven ideas.
Huge congrats to @Chrizhuu and the @donutai team — very glad to be doubling down.
Few teams understand crypto, product and USERS at this depth, and still keep executing this hard in this chaotic market. They’ve been relentlessly trying to ship the right product for this industry and its users, not just another one.
The last 6 months have been intense on the build side — bullish on the team and what they ship next !
🍩 🚀 🌝
For the last 6 months, we’ve prototyped Donut, with 100,000+ visionaries on the waitlist to co-create the interface for the financial internet.
Today, we're excited to announce that We raised $22M to build the world's first agentic crypto browser for trading.
Money doesn’t sleep. Keep it growing.
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