Audrey Tan

Left home after graduation to build a life abroad on my own.
An unhappy marriage ended up being the start of my second chapter.
Family · Travel · Gym · Tennis

[Audrey Tan @0xaudreytan]

Today, I’m being my own queen

[Audrey Tan @0xaudreytan]

@zm2123 Drop the desire to prove yourself, those who understand you don't need an explanation, explaining to those who don't understand is useless

[Audrey Tan @0xaudreytan]

@star_okx Frankly speaking, this is a targeted circle PR marketing campaign precisely aimed at European compliance regulations and brand exposure

[Audrey Tan @0xaudreytan]

Come on, let's get to know each other.

Which camp are you in? 🤭

[Audrey Tan @0xaudreytan]

It's hilarious how obvious it is right now with the Clarity Act getting shot down and rate hikes expected. What a time to be alive

[Audrey Tan @0xaudreytan]

Wah, every time I walk past this Changi waterfall, still feels like sci-fi leh

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

Did Trump and Bessent Make a Mistake With Warsh?

Kevin Warsh must rip the bandage off. If he allows the Federal Reserve to remain captive to Wall Street’s reflexive market culture, Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will have made a massive mistake.

The latest economic data do not justify 100 basis points of additional tightening. If the Fed hikes 25bps then 100bps is on the table.

That matters because the Fed rarely hikes only once. An initial 25-basis-point move is read as the start of a campaign, 25 becomes 50, 50 becomes 75, and soon the market expects a full percentage point. The question is not whether this week’s data could justify one hike. The question is whether they justify putting the Fed on a path to 100 basis points of cumulative tightening.

They do not.

But hey, the Wall St view is Warsh is not up to the task of disappointing the Bloomberg Bros.

A full percentage point of rate increases would raise borrowing costs across mortgages, consumer credit, commercial real estate, corporate refinancing, and business investment. It would require evidence of broad inflation reacceleration, excessive demand, deteriorating inflation expectations, and monetary policy that is clearly too easy.

That evidence is absent.

A supply shock is a tax on growth. It raises costs, reduces purchasing power, squeezes margins, and weakens investment. Interest-rate-sensitive sectors, housing, commercial real estate, consumer durables, and business investment, are already in recession. The labor market is weak. More rate hikes would not fix supply. They would deepen the slowdown.

Yet the Bloomberg Bros are clutching their pearls again. Their script is simple: One hike is not enough, a pause shows weakness, and the Fed must keep hiking to prove it has credibility.

That is not analysis. It is Wall Street demanding emotional reassurance.
For more than 25 years, forward guidance has fostered this pathology. Investors parse every Fed speech, dot plot, and press conference for the next policy signal. Markets trade their forecasts of the Fed. Then Fed officials treat market moves as evidence about the economy.

The result is a wall of mirrors: Wall Street forecasts the Fed, the Fed watches Wall Street, and monetary policy becomes reflexive. Market emotion becomes the Fed’s evidence.
Warsh’s job is to change the reaction function. The Fed must respond to the data, not to Wall Street’s expectations of the Fed’s response. Objective analysis must replace the theater of forecast, reaction, and counterreaction.

Calling the Fed “data-dependent” is meaningless when officials make policy choices unsupported by the data. Real data dependence means acting on inflation, employment, credit, productivity, supply, fiscal policy, and demand, even when the conclusion disappoints the Bloomberg Bros.

Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech was a failure. Rather than confront the Fed’s Plato’s Cave culture, he gave it what it wanted, reassurance that the existing framework, models, forecasts, and market-sensitive habits would remain intact. He must now rip the bandage off.

If Warsh lets the Fed hike to satisfy the Bloomberg Bros rather than the evidence, the Wall of Mirrors will survive. Trump and Bessent will have made a massive mistake.

[Senator Cynthia Lummis @SenLummis]

If the Clarity Act fails, Democrats own what comes next: more 100 Democratic-directed changes wasted, consumers with zero federal protection, no disclosure rules, no delisting requirements for bad actors, stuck in the same unregulated system that has already cost Americans billions. They wrote the fix. They must pass it.

[Audrey Tan @0xaudreytan]

@Jiangzhuoer2 Why are they so obsessed with predicting the script? Because it gives them room to both attack and retreat

[Audrey Tan @0xaudreytan]

@SecScottBessent Whether politicians wayanging for political show, or Treasury finding lobang to earn money backside, both are gong-gong reminding us hor when got power and cash already, even history memories also can pack nicely and sell like market price product one

[Audrey Tan @0xaudreytan]

@PhyrexNi Throw all the up and down inflation problem inside one geopolitical corner only, sound damn grand hor, actually like total bullshit one, confirm cannot even prove right or wrong

[Audrey Tan @0xaudreytan]

Say don't care already, then think back also damn chill one, totally no feel. But confirm will tio dream at night, got dream then got mood. Wake up liao think back again, still steady like swimming pool, nothing at all……

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent @SecScottBessent]

By identifying and reporting this suspicious activity, financial institutions have given law enforcement critical insight into the illicit actors who deliberately exploit U.S. health care benefits programs. Treasury will continue working alongside our law enforcement partners to disrupt fraud wherever it occurs, protect Americans, and safeguard the integrity of taxpayer-funded programs.

[Eleanor Mueller @Eleanor_Mueller]

NEW: I sat down with @PatrickJWitt to discuss the crypto bill before the Senate vote next week.

We talked about oustanding issues (including ethics and yields); what happens if it doesn't pass; the regulatory agenda; pending agency nominees; his military leave; and (somehow) more.

Watch in full here: https://t.co/cdT2G6OPXr

And read the story here: https://t.co/wnDsG10Mry

[Eleanor Terrett @EleanorTerrett]

The National Sheriffs’ Association was the last of the major police organizations opposing the Clarity Act to change its position, moving from opposition to neutral. But that shift is notable.

Compare the language in this letter with the one the group sent July 31, when it described the bill as “harmful,” warned of “significant law enforcement and public safety risks” and characterized the BRCA language as “terrible policy.”

While not an endorsement, the shift likely reflects significant behind-the-scenes work between White House officials and the group this summer to move it from its earlier highly critical stance to neutral.

Not expected to change their positions, I’m told, are the prosecutors: the National District Attorneys Association and the National Association of Assistant U.S. Attorneys.

Both groups have conditioned their support on significantly narrowing the BRCA’s protections for noncustodial software developers, including making it easier to prosecute them as unlicensed money transmitters for knowingly moving illicit funds. The White House, Treasury, Members of Congress and the crypto industry have made clear they are unwilling to make those changes.

Democratic Senator @SenCortezMasto aligned herself with the prosecutors’ groups in a July letter backing the proposed changes and has not publicly shifted her position since.

But the NSA’s move to neutral is generally being viewed as removing another obstacle on the path to the September 15 vote.

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

Warsh’s Monetary Surrender

Kevin Warsh has abandoned the supply side and much of what he argued before becoming a Federal Reserve chair contender.

Jay Powell might as well have given today’s speech. Yes, meet the new boss same as the old boss. Some facts for those that assume Warsh is a breath of fresh air.

His prescription mistakes inflation’s symptoms for its causes, treating supply shocks as demand excess, flawed statistics as settled reality, and rate hikes as a universal cure.
Higher rates cannot produce energy, build homes, repair supply chains or expand power grids.

Nor is every increase in oil, food, Dram, freight or housing costs or wage-increase manifest in an inflationary spiral requiring demand destruction of the interest rate sensitive area.

Warsh implicitly believes in 2nd and 3rd order effects. The Sword of Damocles, for policy makers. Investors take note!!

Rate hikes are inflationary in themselves. They raise financing costs, rents, debt service and business prices while suppressing investment in housing, power, logistics and industry.

Warsh also assumes that r*, the neutral rate, has risen more than 100 bps, but offers assertion rather than proof. Housing is frozen, credit stress is building globally, and high US rates export instability.

Warsh will fit neatly into a post-factual Keynesian Fed, where models replace evidence and financial pain is called credibility.

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

This is a classic Keynesian response.

Supply Shocks are inflationary and Supply Side growth is inflationary.

More rate hikes don’t solve supply shocks. But let’s be clear, the Keynesian Pundits all got the memo and their marching orders.

Get use to it.

We are in Lewis Carrol Through the Looking Glass world.

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent @SecScottBessent]

.@dto_rok is not only a great patriot, but an exceptional photographer. His portrait of @POTUS will now be immortalized on the new $1 coin—a lasting tribute to a President who always puts America First. Thank you, Daniel, for helping to capture this historic moment.

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent @SecScottBessent]

The American Dream belongs to every child. Today, we are equipping the next generation to claim their rightful share.

Thanks to @POTUS, eligible families can now access @TrumpAccounts. Visit https://t.co/PEeRkzlkD1 and download the official Trump Accounts app to help your child jumpstart his or her financial future.

[Audrey Tan @0xaudreytan]

@Jiangzhuoer2 This kind of time sibeh jialak with whole world supply chain all fly kite, geeting conflict everywhere, plus post covid inflation sticky until like what, history rules that used to work in certain season sure gg one