Baga

content creator | @zscdao and @polymarket member |

[Baga @0xbaga]

opensea fdv above __ one day after launch?

current polymarket odds
>$500M: 83% (basically locked)

>$1B: 52.5% (coin flip territory)

>$2B: 23% (skeptical)

>$3B: 10% (very unlikely)

>$5B: 5% (lol no)
total volume: $1.3M

other nft marketplaces after tge:
1) magic eden - 8b fdv on 1 day then 4b on second day​
2) tensor opened around a 2–2.5b fdv on 1 day then closer to 2b the next day​
3) blur - 2b fdv on 1 day and then got a pump up to 3.5b fdv on day two

why >1b is basically guaranteed (52%)
funding history proves floor:

series c: $300M at $13.3B valuation (jan 2022)​
total raised: $427M from a16z, paradigm, coatue​

if investors put in $427M at $13.3B, theyre not letting token launch below $1b fdv. thatd be catastrophic optics. floor is already set by private market.

im betting YES on >$1B (52.5%) and NO on >$3B (10%).

[Baga @0xbaga]

@ShikoyeniJay @Polymarket cuz the government has super clear rules
you can't hate on other races or religions
being clueless about the law won't save you from trouble
literally everyone here knows that

[Baga @0xbaga]

dude literally bet on polymarket that the times square kiss cam would show a gay couple kissing in the first 10 seconds of the new year and it hit

ez + $300k for him

[Baga @0xbaga]

@RDX_arXS @Polymarket netflix is out here ruining shows again in its usual style im not even surprised anymore

[Baga @0xbaga]

will phantom launch a token?

the situation is wild

@phantom wallet literally said "nah were not doing a token" back in january 2025, they posted on x, were super clear about it: no token, no airdrop, end of story.​

BUT polymarket traders still think theres like a 45% chance phantom drops a token by september 2026. these guys are basically saying phantom is full of it lol.​

phantom token launch probability - polymarket timeline
the odds are kinda spread:

june 30 2026: 31%, still pretty bearish honestly

september 30 2026: 41%, this is where the action is, main speculation window

december 31 2026: 40%, by end of year, traders think its more likely than not

why phantom said no (officially)

this came right after they launched social networking features in their wallet in december 2024.

the community was like "yo theyre definitely dropping an airdrop soon" usernames, friends lists, DMs, all that stuff. it felt like airdrop prep.​

BUT phantom came out and was like nope, these features are just cool features. no token vibes.​
why traders think phantom is lying (or will change their mind)
the crypto industry has a history of this exact playbook:

uniswap moment (2020):
uniswap said for years they werent making a token. literally years of "we don't need a token, were good."
then september 2020 hits and boom - UNI airdrop. biggest airdrop in crypto history at the time.

1inch moment (2020):
same vibes. 1inch denied token plans. then december 2020 drops 1INCH token and airdrop. caught everyone off guard.​

when a big platform grows to 7M+ users and generates fees or has network effects, it eventually tokenizes.

maybe it takes a year, maybe it takes three years, but the pressure is always there, governance, airdrop culture, crypto community expectations.

[Baga @0xbaga]

@Ivanbenzemama @coinbase @Official_Upbit @zscdao @Polymarket knowing how upbit loves to pump new tokens feels like theres a pretty decent chance lit rips past 3b+

[Baga @0xbaga]

@Lummox_eth @PolymarketTrade been checking the weekly crypto leaderboard too and theres a lot of interesting stuff there

saw a couple traders with like 7 trades all on lighter related markets kinda sus ngl maybe some insiders

[Baga @0xbaga]

ez +20% in 1 day i be locking in profits here

dont really see the point in waiting another day just for like 3 percent

[Baga @0xbaga]

nothing ever happens: december on polymarket

polymarket traders are 81% confident that absolutely nothing significant will happen in december 2025.

this means only a 19% probability that at least one of the five listed events actually occurs before the year ends.​

with just 2 days remaining (market resolves december 31, 2025), this is nearly locked in. $868,357 in trading volume backs this outcome.​

what would have to happen for "NO" to win
the market resolves to "No" (something happens) if any one of these five events occur by december 31:​

why traders are so confident nothing happens

time is running out: 2 days left.

venezuela military engagement is the only remotely plausible event, and there's been zero news about imminent action.​

venezuela rhetoric vs. action: trump talks tough but hasnt followed through with military operations in december. closing airspace ≠ military engagement.​

peace talks arent happening: russia and ukraine are further apart than ever.

zelenskyy explicitly refuses putins territorial demands. no surprise breakthrough in december is realistic.​

bitcoin isn't pumping: no massive catalyst exists for $120k+ prices in 2 days.​

epstein list: if governments wanted to release it, they would have already.​

putin-zelensky: zero diplomatic groundwork. impossible to organize a leader meeting in 48 hours without advance negotiation

[Baga @0xbaga]

@Lummox_eth @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket good strategy if id actually studied math in school i probably wouldve noticed that myself

but thanks anyway bro

[Baga @0xbaga]

nothing ever happens: december on polymarket

polymarket traders are 81% confident that absolutely nothing significant will happen in december 2025.

this means only a 19% probability that at least one of the five listed events actually occurs before the year ends.​

with just 2 days remaining (market resolves december 31, 2025), this is nearly locked in. $868,357 in trading volume backs this outcome.​

what would have to happen for "NO" to win
the market resolves to "No" (something happens) if any one of these five events occur by december 31:​

why traders are so confident nothing happens

time is running out: 2 days left.

venezuela military engagement is the only remotely plausible event, and there's been zero news about imminent action.​

venezuela rhetoric vs. action: trump talks tough but hasnt followed through with military operations in december. closing airspace ≠ military engagement.​

peace talks arent happening: russia and ukraine are further apart than ever.

zelenskyy explicitly refuses putins territorial demands. no surprise breakthrough in december is realistic.​

bitcoin isn't pumping: no massive catalyst exists for $120k+ prices in 2 days.​

epstein list: if governments wanted to release it, they would have already.​

putin-zelensky: zero diplomatic groundwork. impossible to organize a leader meeting in 48 hours without advance negotiation

[Baga @0xbaga]

@AlenaChramtsova @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @PolyBaddies huge security costs for a straw goat literally sounds like a meme

[Baga @0xbaga]

@Ivanbenzemama @Lighter_xyz @zscdao @Polymarket this whole story is gonna be really interesting a lot of money was riding on december 29

[Baga @0xbaga]

@AlenaChramtsova @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade feels weird that the odds on a taylor swift song started dropping towards the end of the year something feels off here

[Baga @0xbaga]

@Lummox_eth @PolymarketTrade @zscdao personally i dont take trumps statements seriously cause immigrants are mostly the ones doing the dirtiest jobs that regular americans wont touch​

to me what trump says is nothing more than an exaggeration just to score points with americans

[Baga @0xbaga]

will metamask launch a token by ___?

polymarket traders are 64% confident metamask launches by june 30, 2026. this rises to 77% by september 30, 2026. q2 2026 is the primary target window.​

why q2 2026 (64% probability)

sec lawsuit is dead:
the sec dismissed its lawsuit against consensys in early 2025, this removed the biggest blocker. joe lubin cited this explicitly: the regulatory environment is now "more favorable".​

rewards program provides infrastructure:
metamask launched a rewards season in october 2025. this gives them real user activity data to determine airdrop eligibility and time to build token distribution systems.​

ipo timing aligns:
jpmorgan and goldman sachs were hired to advise on consensys ipo (october 2025). a mask token launch in q2 2026 could be the ipo launch catalyst, creating a "complete platform" story for wall street.​

infrastructure is ready:
bitcoin support added (december 2025), polymarket integration complete (october 2025). the technical foundation is in place.

why not other quarters:

2025 (<1%): lawsuit just dismissed, too early, holiday timing bad
q1 2026 (20%): ipo prep will dominate management attention, rewards data still being collected
q3 2026 (77%): backup window if q2 slips
q4 2026+ (85%): maximum delay scenario

[Baga @0xbaga]

@geekinlucci @zscdao @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket 100 percent sure a big part of the credit for this goes to zscdao we work hard on this

[Baga @0xbaga]

@AleiahLock @IMDb @Stranger_Things thanks for the spoiler warning bro ill come back to this post after i watch it

[Baga @0xbaga]

@Atlantislq timothe is in his prime right now pretty sure the critics see that and will lean his way over leo

[Baga @0xbaga]

@mahera777 @PolymarketTrade i hope steve doesnt die. If 11 dies, it wont be such a shame.

[Baga @0xbaga]

@immortalhowwl @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket how long you think he was out there celebrating that dub? 😂