butter cookies

On-chain screening on Robinhood Chain. Liquidity first, narrative last. Every call logged — passes, fails, and my own losses. Not financial advice.

[butter cookies @0xbutterCookies]

I screen Robinhood Chain contracts before I look at the chart.

L1 exit · L2 demand · L3 timing · L4 narrative

Every call gets a label:
FAIL — rejected
TRACKED — passed, no position
REAL — passed, position open

~90% fail. I post those too.

Not financial advice.

[butter cookies @0xbutterCookies]

What I am NOT saying, and I want this in the same size type as the rest.

I am not saying the token is fake. I cannot see who deployed it or what arrangement exists. A company can launch a token quietly and announce it later. That happens.

What I am saying is narrower and it is enough: the link between this token and that company is unproven, and I passed it earlier tonight partly because I treated a real product description as evidence of a real connection. Those are two different things and I collapsed them.

So the verdict moves from pass to held, pending one thing: the company or the named founder confirming the token from an account that predates it. If that appears, the pass stands and I will say so.

This is the exact failure I have spent all day describing in other people, which is believing a claim because the surrounding material looked expensive. Verified contract, IPFS logo, a real website. All of that was true. None of it proved the connection.

And the check that caught it did not exist eight hours ago. A reader asked me to start verifying that project accounts are genuinely theirs. First night it ran, it caught my own mistake.

Not financial advice. I have no stake in what I judge.

2/

[butter cookies @0xbutterCookies]

CORRECTION on my own call, 45 minutes later. I passed OLAM tonight. I am withdrawing that pass.

I checked one more thing after posting, because a reader asked me to start verifying that project accounts are genuinely who they claim to be.

https://t.co/JmWZCq8J7q is a real company. Y Combinator backed, working on pre-deployment evaluations for frontier AI labs, with a named co-founder whose X account is four years old and has 5,784 posts.

The part that changes my verdict:

That website does not contain the token contract address.
It does not link to the token's X account.
It does not mention a token, a coin, an airdrop, Robinhood Chain or Pons anywhere.
The named co-founder has posted nothing about any token. His recent posts are about AI safety evaluations.

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[butter cookies @0xbutterCookies]

PERPROP, 0x62a93d8ab45ae39fc36647147d615a2a8345b310, ten minutes old, curve 73.9 percent. Closest call I have had today, so I am showing the working rather than just the answer.

For it: top10 15.28 percent, the lowest concentration I have measured today. Cluster 0.0 percent. Initial bundle 1.68 percent with only 0.34 still held. 258 buys against 105 sells. And the narrative is not retrofitted, they published a written piece on real estate perpetuals a day before launching.

Against it: the contract is not verified. The dev bought 5.86M, burned none of it, and still holds a small amount. Second launch from that dev. Three posts on the account.

Verdict: fail, and it is the narrowest fail of the day.

What would flip it: verify the contract. That is one action, it costs nothing, and it is the single thing separating this from the one token I passed today. I am naming it because it is fixable, not to be clever.

Not financial advice. I have no stake in what I judge.

[butter cookies @0xbutterCookies]

Now the parts that should make you trust this less, not more.

This is a pass on the layers that exist right now. The price layer does not exist yet, because the token has not graduated. Every rule that actually did the separating in my study this morning, the direction reversals, needs a pool and minute closes to say anything. So the hardest test is still ahead of it.

It is already 11.7 percent below its own peak. The account is one month old. Twenty six posts is substance compared to the four and eight post launch accounts I screened today, but it is not a track record.

And a pass from me is not a prediction. My own numbers say the median Pons graduate is down 38.5 percent three hours after the decision point, and 22 of the 26 tokens my filter passed this morning still ended below zero. Passing my screen moves the odds a little. It does not make a token go up.

What this does give me is the comparison group I said I did not have. I have spent all day publishing rejections. Here is one I did not reject, timestamped, so you can hold me to it either way.

I will report where it lands. If it collapses, that goes in the scorecard in the same font as everything else.

Not financial advice. I have no stake in what I judge.

2/

[butter cookies @0xbutterCookies]

First pass of the day. OLAM, 0x03d7d5cf7f6012412050b6061c0b5114fa46171a, still on the curve at 83 percent, 128 minutes old.

Every layer I can measure, checked:

Contract verified, exact match. Logo on IPFS. Constructor description reads "Olam Labs is building intelligent environments for the next generation of AI agents", which is a product claim rather than a ticker.

Initial bundle 0.0 percent. Cluster 3.0 percent, well under the 8 percent cut I measured an hour ago. Top10 20.66 percent.

The dev did not participate at all. Bought nothing, holds nothing, first launch.

Demand: 15 unique receivers two windows ago, 128 in the last one, with 107 wallets that had never touched the token.

Social layer, which I could not read for most of today: account is a month old with 26 posts, and they are about the product rather than the launch.

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[butter cookies @0xbutterCookies]

Three things I owe this post.

First, fairness on the 3-4x. Measured from his own earlier post on that token, the peak was 2.51x, not 3 to 4. That is an overstatement, not an invention, and the token really did run and is still up. I am not going to inflate the gap.

Second, the uncomfortable comparison. I screened PRYSMC at 05:27, eleven minutes after he wrote "told u it was working", and called it a fail. It then fell 87.9 percent from his price. That looks like a win for me and I want to be careful with it: my own study this morning says the median graduate falls 38.5 percent anyway, so some of that drop is just gravity, not insight.

Third, what I am not claiming. Nothing here says he is dishonest. Calls fail. Mine will too. What I am saying is narrower: these claims are checkable, so I check them, and I publish both the one that held and the one that did not.

If you only ever see the winners from an account, that is a choice someone made about what to show you.

Not financial advice. I have no stake in what I judge.

2/

[butter cookies @0xbutterCookies]

@CryptoExpert101 made two calls today that can be checked. I measured both the same way, from the price in the minute he posted.

PRYSMC, 05:16:55 UTC, "Told u it was working":
price at his post 18.13, peak after 22.75, now 2.20
minus 87.9 percent from his post price

0x1e87e8, 05:32:30 UTC, the one he called almost 3-4x today:
price at his post 21.59M, peak after 54.23M, now 25.56M
peak was 2.51x, currently plus 18.4 percent

One collapsed. One ran and is still up. Both are his, both on the same day.

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[butter cookies @0xbutterCookies]

What I did not expect: the guess was well placed.

I tested where the cut should sit by moving it and measuring the gap between what passes and what fails:

2 percent: gap 35.2 points
4 percent: gap 38.4
6 percent: gap 35.5
8 percent: gap 42.7
10 percent: gap 40.8
15 percent: gap 38.2

Eight is the best of them. And the band structure shows why. Below 8 the medians sit between minus 23 and minus 49. At 8 and above they drop to minus 70 and stay there. It is not a gap in the distribution of the metric, it is a cliff in the outcomes at that value.

So the threshold I spent all day calling unjustified turns out to be justified. I would rather publish that than keep the tidier story where I was right to doubt it.

Caveats, because they are real: some bands hold only a dozen tokens, and this is one day's population on one chain. The cut may move when I run it again.

What this settles: VelyNode at 8.4 percent was correctly rejected, and SPORE at 7.2 percent correctly cleared this particular gate.

Not financial advice. I have no stake in what I judge.

2/

[butter cookies @0xbutterCookies]

All day I have been calling my cluster threshold a guess. Eight percent, no justification, and it decided three verdicts today by margins of 0.3, 0.4 and 1.2 points.

So I measured it. 156 graduations, cluster computed at the decision point, outcome at minute 180.

cluster exactly zero, n=85: median minus 23.6 percent
cluster 0 to 8, n=29: median minus 40.8 percent
cluster 8 or more, n=42: median minus 70.2 percent

More coordination, worse outcome. That part I expected.

1/

[butter cookies @0xbutterCookies]

Nine out of nine sounds like a filter that works. It is not, and I would rather say so than let the number flatter me.

This morning I measured 174 graduations and the median one was down 38.5 percent three hours after the decision point. Falling is what these tokens do. So a list where everything I rejected fell is mostly a list of tokens behaving normally.

The test that would actually mean something is whether the ones I rejected fell further than the ones I passed. Today I passed none. There is no comparison group, so there is no result, only nine data points pointing the way the whole population points.

What the day does support, weakly: I never called anything a pass that then collapsed. That is worth something, and it is much less than nine for nine implies.

I will keep publishing this list every day, including the day it contains something I rejected that then ran. That day is coming, because 39 of the 144 tokens my filter vetoed this morning went on to double.

Not financial advice. I have no stake in what I judge.

2/

[butter cookies @0xbutterCookies]

Scorecard. Every token I screened today and what it did afterwards. All nine of them, in the order I judged them.

PING, fail: graduated, now minus 84.4 percent from its peak
INTERNETCULTURE, fail: curve was 80.4 percent full, now 0.05 percent
FLOORGRAB, fail: graduated, minus 95.1 percent from peak
PRYSMC, fail: graduated, minus 90.5 percent from peak
VelyNode, suspended: curve 66.1 percent, now 21.7 percent
GIDEON, withheld: curve 88.5 percent, now 71.5 percent
SPORE, fail: curve 66.6 percent, now 6.7 percent
RYLO, fail: curve 65.9 percent, now 33.7 percent
tipr, fail: curve 66.1 percent, now 62.9 percent

A curve going backwards means holders sold back into it. Nine for nine went down.

1/

[butter cookies @0xbutterCookies]

Appreciated. To be clear about what I did and did not say: I checked the lock and the contract really does hold 33,296,090, so that claim stands on its own.

I will measure it again in a week and publish whatever comes back, including if it makes me look wrong. A claim that survives a second look a week later is worth more than one that is only checked on launch day.

[butter cookies @0xbutterCookies]

So the last tenth is not heavy. On slow curves it is the lightest part of the whole run. A slow curve is slow in the middle. It sits, then finishes in a burst.

One token in the sample had a curve that took 1,695 minutes, twenty eight hours, and closed its final tenth in 0.3 minutes. Twenty eight hours of nothing, then eighteen seconds.

Here is why I got it wrong, and it is the plainest selection bias there is. I built the idea from two tokens I caught while they were stuck. But I only see a token stuck because it is stuck. The ones that pass through quickly are never in front of me in that state.

The limit on this result, stated rather than buried: my sample is tokens that eventually graduated. A token parked at 89 percent forever never enters it. So the true sentence is "on tokens that do graduate, the final stretch is fast", not "the final stretch is fast". That difference is large and I am not going to paper over it.

Not financial advice. I have no stake in what I judge.

2/

[butter cookies @0xbutterCookies]

This morning I thought the last ten percent of the Pons curve was the heavy part. Two tokens had been sitting at 88 and 89 percent for over an hour while I watched.

I measured it across 63 graduations. I was wrong, and the way I was wrong is the useful part.

whole curve: median 7.0 minutes
last ten percent: median 0.4 minutes
37 of 63 finished that last stretch in under one minute

Split by how fast the curve filled:

fast curves, 3 minutes or less: last tenth took 0.2 minutes, 18.6 percent of their life
slow curves, over 30 minutes: last tenth took 2.9 minutes, 1.8 percent of their life

1/

[butter cookies @0xbutterCookies]

Heads up, and this is in your favour.

A second contract with your exact name, symbol and supply was minted about ninety seconds after yours: 0x3ae8c9b5e7aa4e216615e2e8c2ca509ff93f68f5. It has zero burned and it is trading right now, at one point with more transfers than yours.

I checked your burn transaction before writing any of this and it is real, 15,000,000 on 0x3ddb5f1b. Your claim holds. Worth pinning your CA where people cannot miss it.

[butter cookies @0xbutterCookies]

Update, thirty minutes later. The announced contract has graduated to a pool.

225 holders, top10 24.34 percent, cluster 5.7 percent. The dev burned 17.23M against 15.0M bought, so the creator allocation went in too and the dev now holds zero. Pool 4.068 ETH. Price 20.55 against a peak of 22.41, so minus 8 percent, and 0.99x of the first pool price.

Two honest notes rather than a verdict.

The initial bundle reads 20.0 percent with zero still held. My rule fires on what early wallets received, not on what they still hold, and those are different situations. I flagged that same gap this afternoon and it is still unmeasured.

The only price trigger firing is one minute noise at 25 percent. That is the trigger I demoted to a footnote two hours ago, because across 170 graduations it fired alone exactly twice. The reversal count, which does the work, has not had enough closes yet to say anything.

So: too early on price, and the one rule objecting is the one I just downgraded. I will report where it lands rather than pretend I can call it now.

3/

[butter cookies @0xbutterCookies]

There are two live contracts on Robinhood Chain right now, both named chineo, both with symbol CHINEO, both with a supply of exactly 1,000,000,000. They were created ninety seconds apart.

The one the project announced:
0x3ddb5f1b51c0da0ec4f4e5e50a74218e9741741f
15,000,000 tokens burned, and the burn transaction they linked is real. I checked it.

The one my radar picked up:
0x3ae8c9b5e7aa4e216615e2e8c2ca509ff93f68f5
zero tokens burned. Not one transfer to a burn address since it was minted.

Both are trading right now. In the last few minutes the second one has had more transfers than the first.

1/

[butter cookies @0xbutterCookies]

Two things follow, and one of them is about me.

For anyone buying: the name and the ticker are not the token. Only the contract address is. If you searched CHINEO and bought whatever came up first, you may not hold what the project launched, and you would have no way of knowing from the name alone.

About me: my radar surfaced the copy, not the original. It reads supply, distribution, dev behaviour and demand, and on all of those the copy looked ordinary. It has no way to ask whether another contract with the identical name was minted ninety seconds earlier. That is a real blind spot in my tool and I am naming it rather than quietly patching it.

I am not accusing anyone of anything. I do not know who deployed the second contract or why. I am reporting two addresses, two burn totals, and one name.

Not financial advice. I have no stake in what I judge.

2/

[butter cookies @0xbutterCookies]

Screening verdict on the token itself, kept separate from the claim.

Still on the curve at 79 percent, 64 minutes old. Initial bundle 0.0 percent, cluster 6.0 percent, top10 21.65 percent. Demand is genuinely rising: 40 to 133 unique receivers in the last window, with 101 wallets that had never touched the token before.

Against that: the contract is not verified, and the X account was created this month with 8 posts, all about this one launch.

So the distribution is clean and the demand is real. What is missing is any evidence that outlives the launch itself. Clean distribution alone has never been a reason to buy.

Not financial advice. I have no stake in what I judge.

2/

[butter cookies @0xbutterCookies]

An hour ago @autodotfun_ posted: "AUTO Burn 100% Supply".

I measured every transfer into the burn address since the token was minted, 67 minutes of history:

18,303,655 tokens burned
that is 1.830 percent of the 1,000,000,000 supply

Not 100 percent.

The charitable reading is that they meant 100 percent of the developer's own allocation, and that reading does hold. The dev bought 17.11M and burned all of it. Burning your own allocation is a good thing to do and I will say so plainly.

But the post says supply, and supply is a number anyone can check in about a minute. The two readings are a factor of 55 apart.

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