dan

Global Explorer 🌍 Investor (who trades) 〽️ Wolverine 🗽 New Yorker

[dan @0xdan22]

"I doubt [the USD] will be the reserve currency in 50 years, but I don’t have a clue what would be, maybe some crypto thing I hate"

$BTC

[Morgan Stanley @MorganStanley]

Watch Hard Lessons, as legendary investor Stan Druckenmiller sits down with Morgan Stanley’s Iliana Bouzali, sharing how he would construct a portfolio if he had to start over today, why contrarianism is overrated, and which stock he regrets selling too early.

[dan @0xdan22]

>50% $AMZN Q1 earnings attributable to gains in Anthropic stake

[Ptuomov @ptuomov]

OWEN LAMONT ON STOCK PRICES LEAKING INTO EARNINGS

“2. Stock prices leak into reported profitability. Rising stock prices improve reported earnings, financing conditions, collateral values, and perceived business performance.”

Owen Lamont elaborates on this point further.

[dan @0xdan22]

@DezBryant Definitely curious how someone who's demonstrated excellence in sports is bringing his focus to different areas. Don't let the Lil Pudgy NFT fool you - I'm a sophisticated, multi-asset investor expanding my use of AI in my investment process. Happy to share thoughts anytime!

[dan @0xdan22]

$HYPE clearly doesn't care about your emotional stability this month

[Cointelegraph @Cointelegraph]

🔥 NEW: $HYPE breaks into new all-time highs above $76.

[NBA @NBA]

KAT GETS HIS FINGERTIPS ON IT!

WHAT A PLAY ON THE LAST POSSESSION 😮

KNICKS TAKE A 3-1 SERIES LEAD IN THE NBA FINALS.

[NBA @NBA]

It's even better in slow motion 😏

[dan @0xdan22]

OG!!! "He inbounded it, nobody guarded him, and he went right to the rim" Go NY Go NY GO!!!

[ESPN @espn]

A PLAY NEW YORKERS WILL REMEMBER FOR THE REST OF THEIR LIVES ‼️

[dan @0xdan22]

"The typical target area for wave ((v)) is projected using the 1.236–1.618 inverse Fibonacci extension of wave ((iv)). In this case, that zone comes in at 60,555–55,992. From this area, we expect a corrective three-wave bounce before the downside trend resumes." bitcoin:native

[Elliottwave Forecast @ElliottForecast]

$BTC favors short term weakness to extend daily pullback started from Oct-26 high

#Bitcoin favors pullback in daily and expect more downside against 5.06.26 high as it broke Feb-26 low. #Ethereum also broke the same level within Aug-25 drop & expect more downside.

#Elliottwave

[Brandon Carl @brandonjcarl]

Documenting the headwinds I now see for AI.

It won't seem like it, but I love AI and am long-term positive. But when "math doesn't math" I take note.

1. The core thesis for foundation model lab investment has been high upfront investment made worthwhile by significant long-term profits.

2. These are capital intensive businesses and the compute commitments are very high relative to revenue and require strong growth over long time periods. The "leverage" (commitments versus revenue) is extremely high.

3. The fundamentals are not as positive as they previously were:
• Input costs are higher (commodities, chips, power)
• Interest rates are higher
• Competition is more intense
• Scaling Laws are now problematic: exponential costs/power cannot continue

4. Forecasting compute spend is challenging and high risk due to (a) revenue uncertainty and (b) algorithm uncertainty

5. Revenue growth appears to be slowing. The technology is valuable, but ROI is proving to be more expensive and take longer than anticipated.

6. The future is likely "different models for different use cases" with the lower end of the market being highly competitive.

7. Core use cases such as agentic software engineering are likely to need approaches beyond next-token prediction. They are Σ₂ᴾ complexity problems requiring multi-objective optimization and likely a combination of Transformers and other methods.

8. Current forecasts in memory makers are built largely on quadratic attention. That will not persist: we are already seeing work from DeepSeek, Minimax and Nvidia that can cut RAM needs by 80% or more.

9. This means semiconductor valuations are substantially overinflated and will go through the traditional glut versus shortage cycle.

10. For foundation model providers: lower costs with competitive differentiation is good. However, lower costs with a lack of differentiation would mean lower revenues. This makes it harder to (a) service commitments and (b) pay back investors.

11. Leverage is substantially higher than in previous cycles, evidenced by leveraged ETFs, call option activity and margin loans. Korea is particularly susceptible.

12. 0DTE options create a profile that has stronger parallels to portfolio insurance and 1987 than any other point I can remember.

13. The combination of exponential increases in call activity coupled with the ties of semiconductors to structured products means there is a non-trivial systemic risk to the financial system.

14. Implied earnings growth rates are inconsistent with other periods in history.

15. Macroeconomically we cannot and should not fund exponential cost increases. History has shown us repeatedly that there are better ways (see Quick Sort and Simplex).

16. Significant supply is hitting the market via IPOs.

––

Taken together: costs and competition are increasing while revenue growth is likely slowing. Valuations are fragile and prone to technology disruptions that are already here. Systemic financial market risk is extremely high.

[Lev Akabas @LevAkabas]

The New York Knicks just played the most dominant 10-game stretch in NBA history, and it's not even remotely close

[dan @0xdan22]

@rubenhassid @grok please provide link to anthropic’s PDF referenced here

[dan @0xdan22]

@KrownCryptoCave they r totally stats just like they were last time. long

[dan @0xdan22]

the VIX index for $SMH has largely been moving up with the ETF the past few weeks. dicey

[dan @0xdan22]

holy channel $SOXX $SMH

[dan @0xdan22]

$SMH monthly RSI 86

last happened in '21, where it proceeded to run ~21% before dropping ~46%, for a net loss of ~36%

Kijun-sen (Base Line) of its Ichimoku Cloud sits ~36% below Friday's close & lines up with a 50% retracement of its entire rise from Apr '25

[dan @0xdan22]

super interesting and also probably trippiest intraday $SPY chart I've ever seen 😂

[Jan @ Chartfleau @chartfleau]

S&P 500 Tuesday performance by sector. $SPY

[dan @0xdan22]

@KrownCryptoCave Pls sir lever up my levered $BTC and send it all the way to the bottom

[dan @0xdan22]

@KrownCryptoCave Yea look at $MSTU 1-year lol. Gotta catch the trade and get out

[dan @0xdan22]

a broader universe of US stocks than $SPY, the $IWV (Russell 3000) is staring down a 9-13-9 sell on the daily

[dan @0xdan22]

$SMH monthly RSI 86

last happened in '21, where it proceeded to run ~21% before dropping ~46%, for a net loss of ~36%

Kijun-sen (Base Line) of its Ichimoku Cloud sits ~36% below Friday's close & lines up with a 50% retracement of its entire rise from Apr '25

[dan @0xdan22]

notable $MU RSI divergence

[dan @0xdan22]

@KrownCryptoCave got a fib extension target/range?