for those who farming
ethereum:0x455e53cbb86018ac2b8092fdcd39d8444affc3f6 long @Aster_DEX / short @HyperliquidX
positive carry over 7d & 30d
thin books, but ~$5k per leg looks doable with sane slippage
been in this one for 4 days now
join the @Orbital_Markets waitlist to track your funding arb positions
@piselliii buying? look at the sell orders. selling? the buy orders.
add up the size at each price until it covers your order. check the average price for the whole trade, not just the top price.
and remember, those orders can disappear before yours lands.
thin books lie.
they show depth that vanishes the second you touch it.
especially on long tail assets.
looks fine until you try to take size, then you walk the book and eat slippage.
learned this the hard way while building orbital.
deeper liquidity only gets considered when the size needs it and the trade still works after the expected slippage.
Ben Polak, Yale:
“In every game there are players and there’s a prize. If you can’t tell which one you are, you’re the prize.”
Sports desks pay $500k for the ability to see games where the information is shared, but the ability to read it is not.
Yale teaches the foundation for free.
Most people never realize they’re sitting at the table.
Today I want to share how we actually think about this in @sabg_sol.
Everyone watches the same live CS2 stream and answers the same Yes/No questions.
Miss one and you’re out.
Last ones standing split the prize.
The information is the same for everyone.
The difference is who can actually extract signal from it: reading the round economy, macro, pistol/eco/force timing versus just watching the kill feed.
We weight the questions by probability relative to the round on purpose.
The further the game goes, the closer it gets to 50/50.
Early rounds eliminate people who miss obvious signals.
Later rounds eliminate people who can’t make decisions under near-equal uncertainty.
This isn’t about who guesses better.
It’s a game where the edge comes from interpreting the shared stream.
Those who understand the structure play differently.
I just dropped the lifehack on how to approach SABG mathematically.
Save it and win.