eisn

I build stuff

[eisn @0xeisn]

this week marks the cycle low on average.

extrapolated estimate for next cycle top:
180k bitcoin:native on 17 Sept 2029

[eisn @0xeisn]

claude, treat weekly btc as a time series p(t). Find its local maxima: the cycle tops, one per ~4-year cycle. derive a function f(t) in log space that fits those maxima: f(t_k) = ln p(t_k) for every top k. It should pass through the maxima exactly, not approximately. It should be smooth and monotone between them, so no overshoot above the peaks. Past the last maximum, extrapolate it so it gives a ceiling estimate for the next top. Plot exp(f(t)) as a line on the cycle chart.

[eisn @0xeisn]

@imperooterxbt It was never about the tech

[eisn @0xeisn]

@dtrain22k Very accurate

[eisn @0xeisn]

@SalsaTekila It's ok, we all are

[eisn @0xeisn]

I think the bottom will be off 1-4 weeks from its estimate. This is a buy-and-hold signal. Buy and don't get liquidated until it omega pumps soon.

[eisn @0xeisn]

this week marks the cycle low on average.

extrapolated estimate for next cycle top:
180k bitcoin:native on 17 Sept 2029

[eisn @0xeisn]

claude, treat weekly btc as a time series p(t). Find its local maxima: the cycle tops, one per ~4-year cycle. derive a function f(t) in log space that fits those maxima: f(t_k) = ln p(t_k) for every top k. It should pass through the maxima exactly, not approximately. It should be smooth and monotone between them, so no overshoot above the peaks. Past the last maximum, extrapolate it so it gives a ceiling estimate for the next top. Plot exp(f(t)) as a line on the cycle chart.

[eisn @0xeisn]

75k bottom bitcoin:native

[eisn @0xeisn]

Everyone on CT is crying about why there wasn't a $1b runner in the past months.

Remember ICOs? They were a way to raise money for your project by selling tokens you just minted yourself. Similar to how you sell private equity to raise funds for your company.

Nowadays, we launch coins on @Pumpfun / @ponsdotfamily and reward launchpads with 0.3-1% on volume (!!) on every single coin. The project (dev) is not selling you tokens, but the vaults (curves) of these launchpads do. Creators get rewarded too while there is some volume on their coin, but usually this volume fades, and liquidity rotates into the newest and shinest coins. Nobody holds a coin anymore because it may not be safe, or bundled, or snipped heavily. There is zero trust and so conviction.

You don't need to trust. Why not just verify the blockchain yourself? You can just tell an AI agent to do it for you. Read the blockchain, verify smart contract sources, docs, website and X. Identify a good project/coin and hold.

[eisn @0xeisn]

Send it $BTC

[eisn @0xeisn]

75k bottom bitcoin:native

[eisn @0xeisn]

Both engineers shouldn't have had access to the prod system, given how they are being described in the postmortem.

Not even small startups give you access to prod because there is simply no reason why you'd need it.

Experienced devs 1) know very well how git works 2) would not fall for an interview scam that has been around for about 4 years and is pretty well known in the industry

[eisn @0xeisn]

@tayvano_ @pashov But why would the dev‘s (who’s obviously not experienced) VPN/intranet user has permissions to break the entire system?
Also if they were about to install brew it indicates that it may be their first day at work?

The story is a joke.

[eisn @0xeisn]

@binance So the employee who downloaded some software from a website was connected to the company's VPN and had permissions to the wallet engine?

Hard to believe.

[eisn @0xeisn]

@WatcherGuru The difference is that money from banks can’t be laundered easily neither just kept dormant for years

[eisn @0xeisn]

@dabit3 Tech helped me go from 0 to 1. Then back to 0.

[eisn @0xeisn]

@theo It makes sense. Their masters are mostly autists.

[eisn @0xeisn]

@rikiyatakehi @burny_tech @a1zhang @lateinteraction @jayden_teoh_ Things are getting insane by the day

[eisn @0xeisn]

@dogeofficialceo To stream data to a server and remote control it

[eisn @0xeisn]

@ASvanevik google was an early investor in spcx lol

[eisn @0xeisn]

Around $10k + open weight models + some power.

Expect scammers to invade the internet and squeeze out every dollar until security morals improve.

[eisn @0xeisn]

Imagine how much money scammers on the darknet are investing in computing to train their own hacker AI, after making billions over the decades through phishing scams and social engineering.

[eisn @0xeisn]

@fchollet The principle my trading bots were built on

[eisn @0xeisn]

@maria_rcks We will say this every month from now on probably