Ghan

@polymarket Top 0.1% trader
I click buttons ig
Currently @ditto_dates

[Ghan @0xghan]

https://t.co/Z6jT5nGFrh

[Ghan @0xghan]

@TheGreekTrader my fav UMA dispute signal account

[Ghan @0xghan]

@insidersdotbot 😆 give our office a month of free sub

[Ghan @0xghan]

by Arrow-Debreu there are really only 17(ish) outcomes that matter when you bet a world cup game. layer a double-poisson on top and the whole thing collapses into a two-parameter math problem.

[Ghan @0xghan]

@noahrjyu Imma all in on Nigerian shrimp futures. Thank you for your advice 🤑

[Ghan @0xghan]

@arlanr @try_folk @try_folk start a market for whether Arlan will still be in the black wife-lover for next launch video.

[Ghan @0xghan]

then, inspired by @insidersdotbot and for the lovely love of the game, i wrote poly-bet-plan for myself: a layer on top of the engine that distills the aggregate smart-wallet signal into one book — and hands you a straight plan to bet $100.

Try it out here:
https://t.co/TAliqsddAP

[Ghan @0xghan]

poly-state-scan is the engine underneath. every bundle market — moneyline, totals, spreads, BTTS — is just a basket of those 17 states, so it prices them all by replication straight off the exact-score grid.

run it standalone and you get the score distribution the market actually believes.
it also gives you the cleanest read on a smart wallet: MM flow or directional bet, and how its PnL swings across the 17 states.

[Ghan @0xghan]

@AllenWangzian @Kalshi "Gambling bad for health. luckily, we are on prediction market" - overheard in the Ditto office

[Ghan @0xghan]

@AllenWangzian @Kalshi great day to run some book on prediction market with my CEO @AllenWangzian

[Ghan @0xghan]

The biggest misconception about prediction market is that ppl r trading prediction. tbh its more about the path to resolution.

[Ghan @0xghan]

@elsaprofitable @try_folk @try_folk roast this

[Ghan @0xghan]

@elsaprofitable @try_folk buzzword buzzword

[Ghan @0xghan]

@elsaprofitable haha idk i cant swim

[Ghan @0xghan]

the median polymarket trader is down money.
I tore apart the biggest wallets on the platform — $2M, $1M books — and none of them are predicting anything.
They're running a book.
wrote up the whole machine: the order book, the oracle, the arb, the wallets.

[Ghan @0xghan]

https://t.co/Z6jT5nGFrh

[Ghan @0xghan]

been farming https://t.co/n8qwgzZMVA's $2M world cup comp delta-neutral. zero directional risk. Up 2k risk-free and scaling soon.

the math actually works, here's how
fan points need you holding a position at kickoff AND at settlement. so i hold it on https://t.co/n8qwgzZMVA, hold the exact opposite on polymarket.
one leg wins, one loses, i net ~flat and keep the points + airdrop weight

costs (taker both sides):
https://t.co/n8qwgzZMVA ~0.2% — backed it out of defillama, taker-only, and your collateral earns yield while it sits
polymarket sports 0.75%
the cross-book gap is the real tax, call it 1-3% all in ~1.5-4% a match

only hedge markets with a real twin + identical settlement. over/under goals, outright, "to advance." that's the whole list. exact score, corners, first scorer — no hedge exists, so you're just gambling. (every "sports trader" in my replies is doing this and wondering why they're down)

knockout rounds will get you. "90-min result" and "to advance" are NOT the same market. match the settlement rules or your hedge leaks directional risk you didn't sign up for

bottom line: i've zeroed the outcome risk. it's +EV the moment the airdrop is worth more than ~2-3% per position. cz/yzi backing, no token yet, window's still open. run your own numbers before you ape

[Ghan @0xghan]

@try_folk hey folk! I am world :)

[Ghan @0xghan]

@arlanr @try_folk @try_folk do me

[Ghan @0xghan]

@arlanr @elsaprofitable @try_folk @try_folk Mogger

[Ghan @0xghan]

@cgyang1627 Just discovered it?