G ◎ P N I K

[Ansem 🐂🀄️ @blknoiz06]

entering the period where it'll payout the most to be optimistic

because crypto is so heavily driven by speculation & retail participation, the boom/bust cycles are extremely exaggerated. combine that with 2020-21 cycle's covid-zirp mania + cambrian explosion of interest in defi for the first time and we have overhang of infra investments that went a lot higher than they should have

so even though we have meaningful successes this cycle with:

• breakout applications competing with top apps globally (hyperliquid, polymarket, pump, axiom, ethena)
• real improvements on the regulatory front with GENIUS act & complete sentiment shift on public usage of crypto
• meaningful trends in increased usage of defi applications & stablecoin usage globally

the general sentiment has been poor because most CT natives did not make as much money as previous cycles, and a lot of newer participants lost money on memecoins + underwater on ETH from last cycle -- although the group of big winners is always smaller than losers in markets, this cycle it was extremely exaggerated as the sharps made a lot of the money & overall holding crypto was demonstrably worse than holding tech stocks like nvda/pltr/hood etc (even more so since 2024)

crypto is competing with AI for attention & even though the thesis around crypto being a transformative technology has been proven, we are also competing with tech megacorps realizing this and devoting their orgs to also using this technology the best they see fit

--

so we are transitioning from the infra supercycle to the application supercycle, and your 1000x return period for just being early to crypto is over which everyone is realizing at the same time -- although this is true it's apparent that now is a better time to be building apps utilizing crypto rails moreso than any other time in its history, but since crypto's success has been so closely tied to how much number go up, that isn't evidently clear to retail who is down 80% on TRUMP & 90% on berabaddies coin

[Chris Burniske @cburniske]

Well, we know basket starts w/ B

[G ◎ P N I K @0xGopnik]

@RasterlyRock It’s called net flows. Just bc money is going in, doesn’t mean it’s not coming out lol

[G ◎ P N I K @0xGopnik]

@MelMattison1 Bro it’s over for a few months. Give it a rest

[McKenna @Crypto_McKenna]

HYPEBTC

[G ◎ P N I K @0xGopnik]

okay hear me out.

since this bull run was nothing like anyone thought and everyone has also since called the top, what if the bear is nothing like anyone thinks?

[G ◎ P N I K @0xGopnik]

If you hear more of this then you need to buy lol

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

In complete agreement with my friend Aksel on this.
Big question though is this -- has Bitcoin made an all-time forever top???????
As a Bayesian, this is a narrative I am chewing on. The short-term prior argue in favor

[G ◎ P N I K @0xGopnik]

Zcash will fall off a cliff if btc surges. Clearly an inverse trade for whatever time is left

[XO @Trader_XO]

Looks like ZCash is the real bitcoin after all… 🙄

[qw @QwQiao]

bear market astrology

- ogs sell >100k. selling above the 6-fig psychological accomplishment after holding for a decade+. below this round number they'll wait it out.

- etf holders (retail and hedge funds) accelerate selling below 100k. they r simply trend-following paperhands.

- at some point (80-90k) these sellers exhaust and more long term buyers come in. a local bottom forms.

- we pump to near 100k making everyone believe we r back. typical bear market rally that makes bears doubt their view.

- "macro" actually deteriorates and we bleed to 60-70k

- 6-9mo of consolidation in this area including one final capitulation leg down. no one believes we'll ever come back except for 5 ppl on this site.

- new cycle begins.

[G ◎ P N I K @0xGopnik]

$BTC

weekly in tact
monthly in tact
yearly in tact

no clue what's gonna happen

[mert @mert]

another payments giant building on Solana

I'm aware of at least 5 other huge releases coming up

SOL ATH within 1y

[raj 🖤 @rajgokal]

it is once again popular to hate solana.

how many times have we been here before?

[G ◎ P N I K @0xGopnik]

Alts will bleed to btc as long as we continue to chop

[G ◎ P N I K @0xGopnik]

I’m so tired

[G ◎ P N I K @0xGopnik]

@inmortalcrypto Literally no first cyclers in the space anymore. I think that’s why

[G ◎ P N I K @0xGopnik]

@cobie @LambofCrypto @satsdart @brian_armstrong Cobie can you help me get my ftx money back too? Lol I did everything right and Mfers saying I forfeited my distribution

[G ◎ P N I K @0xGopnik]

Wtf

[G ◎ P N I K @0xGopnik]

@mablethemaple @ehat @ghcDrew @Schwettynerd @RiddleofSteel29 @Cernovich All will have an equal opportunity to accept their Savior and complete saving ordinances such as baptism or others—either in this life or in the life to come

[G ◎ P N I K @0xGopnik]

@AutismCapital It was also during what they call a “stake conference” which is when multiple congregations from a single area meet together bi-annually. Usually over 1,000 people at once in the building