kone 🗝️

Perps | Shitposting | Web3 | Futures

PolyMarket • AI • Vibecoding

[kone 🗝️ @0xkeylab]

🤬 A black swan from an unexpected source?

The market is largely ignoring another serious risk: the decline in strategic oil reserves in the US, Europe, and especially Japan.

Amid the global oil crisis, oil supply has declined, and countries are actively using up reserves, which are being depleted at a record pace. It's impossible to quickly restore them after the crisis, so oil could remain expensive even if geopolitical tensions ease.

And then, just a couple of hours ago, Iran announced the closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (through which approximately one-eighth of global shipping passes), which could further reduce oil supply on the markets.

The most vulnerable country in this situation is Japan, as it is completely dependent on oil imports and is depleting its reserves faster than others. If the trend continues high oil prices and a simultaneous decline in strategic reserves the Bank of Japan will likely be forced to raise interest rates.

In this case, the 2024 scenario could repeat itself, when the US stock market fell and Japanese capital was forced to partially exit the US market. This could then have a domino effect.

Remember that Japan is the largest holder of US Treasury bonds in the world.

Therefore, it's worth monitoring developments in this area more closely.

[kone 🗝️ @0xkeylab]

@buildingbaseapp There are positive deals, bro, come on!

[kone 🗝️ @0xkeylab]

🚀 Polymarket Taker Rebate is a cheat code of 2026

I’m already on Gold and I farm 18% cashback every day. Obsidian (50%) is already the next level, guys.

Who also downloads levels? Throw your screenshots with badges in the replays

Bronze? Silver? Or Obsidian right away?

#Polymarket

[kone 🗝️ @0xkeylab]

⚡️SPACEX SAID TO PLAN CLOSING IPO BOOKS WEDNESDAY POST-CLOSE

⚡️SPACEX'S NASDAQ IPO SAID TO BE WELL OVERSUBSCRIBED

Elon Musk's SpaceX IPO is one of the (possible) reasons being discussed for the outflow of risk-on capital from cryptocurrency

[kone 🗝️ @0xkeylab]

What happened:

1. Sailor sold 32 BTC
2. Everyone started selling Bitcoin in a panic
3. Sailor sold 180,000 of his shares
4. He bought 1,500 BTC and used the remaining funds to pay off his debts
5. Now he has +1,500 BTC at the low price, and his lifespan is again 7 months, give or take

It's not entirely clear how 1,500 BTC will help with his average, but oh well, the trap worked, and most importantly, he convinced everyone that he's not crazy, but can make risky decisions and benefit from them, and most importantly, stay afloat even when everyone around him is waiting for his death.

So far, so good, but you can't make many such decisions. The trap worked once, next time he'll sell, everyone will rush to buy, and he'll start selling.

And what other options does he have after this decision?

[kone 🗝️ @0xkeylab]

Here we go again 🎩

BlackRock sent 3,580 bitcoin:native ($226.8 million) to Coinbase Prime for sale

we down

[kone 🗝️ @0xkeylab]

32.000 btc ?

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

32?

[kone 🗝️ @0xkeylab]

He bet on the victory of all 48 national teams at the World Cup.

The Polymarket user spent $56.6K by betting on each national team. He made most of his purchases using negative risk convert - I talked about this method on the stream.

He partially buys and sells positions and has already recorded a profit of +$15.2K.

The maximum payout will be $87K if any of the remaining seven main favorites of the tournament win.

[kone 🗝️ @0xkeylab]

Polymarket has launched the Taker Rebate Program.

Now active traders will receive a daily refund of part of the commissions.

Polymarket has added special badges to user profiles. The trader’s level and his rebate tier are visible directly on the account.

The system works through levels - from Bronze to Obsidian. The higher your taker volume for the last 30 days, the greater the rebate for future transactions.

How is the level considered:

wV = Transaction size × (1 − Entry price) × Category weight × Bonuses.

The highest multiplier in the crypt markets is 2.3x. This means that crypto markets give the most Weighted Volume to level up.

Levels:

- Bronze - 3% rebate.

- Silver - 8%.

- Gold - 18%.

- Platinum - 32%.

- Diamond - 44%.

- Obsidian -50%.

Also, a bonus of up to $25,000 is awarded for the first achievement of a new level.

Important:

- Only taker transactions are taken into account.

- Maker orders are not involved.

- Geopolitics markets do not give wV, as they are traded without commission.

[kone 🗝️ @0xkeylab]

The most likely minimum price range for $BTC is between $46,000 and $54,000, covering the levels of CVDD and realized price.

In an extreme surrender scenario, a deeper support zone can be between $35,000 and $40,000.

The first key recovery zone is between $75,000 and $79,000.

BTC corrections are becoming less significant throughout all market cycles, reducing the likelihood of a deeper downturn.

[kone 🗝️ @0xkeylab]

How to trade the World Cup on Polymarket.

At first I wanted to skip these markets like kazik, ludka and all that. And then I remembered that recently I didn’t want to get into the Eurovision markets, and there was a clear gem in the form of 100x in Bulgaria (if you are constantly in context and actively trade, and not just «buyed and forgot»). In short, I began to actively look at the markets on the subject of the World Cup.

I’m already looking for accounts that buy interesting markets. Exotics are starting to appear and there will be more of it in the course of the championship.

I came across one interesting account, a man is preparing in advance.

Of course, you can just go to your favorite national team or wait for the final. But there is also a more save option to close the baskets step by step through neg-risk convert. What is it and what is the principle of work I told on the stream.

If someone has ideas, observations, data, interesting accounts or just a flight of imagination, write. I also have information.

[kone 🗝️ @0xkeylab]

GM

1. https://t.co/IA844L0tZC

This bet is cool to flip before the report, he needs to finish 200k bits there, and given the mood of the market now and how everyone is waiting for the report and how here they are waiting for his purchases, it will be possible to take delicious entries at the rate under number 1 on the announcement. From the category, if he bought, then take NO there for 10-20-30 if they give, if he sold, then take YES for 1-2-3-4 cents.

There’s nothing much to do in the market yet:

In a couple of days in private at a higher rate, I took x2, then I took a pump of the Chinese token 币安人生 on the baskets and in general that’s it.

[kone 🗝️ @0xkeylab]

Earlier before the incident with KelpDAO and LayerZero, before the fall of TVL AAVE by 75%, AAVE earned about $220k per day, after the recovery of the situation, the figure was about 180k, in the last 5 days thanks to ChainLinkSVR and Liquidation Fee, the figures abnormally jump by 500, 600, 900, 3m, 1m - Revenue per day

https://t.co/Kxf5wiFq3Y

[kone 🗝️ @0xkeylab]

Polymarket organized a football tournament with fake stars.

They gathered fake Messi, Ronaldo, Salah and other players to participate in the tournament and, of course, created a separate market for this event.

The Worst Cup 2026. Live broadcast on Polymarket on June 9 at 18:30 ET.

[kone 🗝️ @0xkeylab]

The dereban continues, and they almost forgot about the DPRK.

The Russian Federation and China gave guarantees to Iran on the nuclear war. Trump claims that Iran will be nuclear-free, and the United States will control Iranian nuclear reserves. The other day, the DPRK showed a new facility related to the nuclear program - Kim Jong-un presented a new uranium enrichment facility. At the same time, he demanded to “exponentially” increase the country’s nuclear arsenal.

The final touch is the meeting between China and North Korea. From this we can conclude that before these dates (June 8-9 + after the meeting, according to the logic of things, there should be a call between C and Trump) it is unlikely that anything will change dramatically in geopolitics.

I would like to make it before June 15.

[kone 🗝️ @0xkeylab]

Well, is it scary?

The index of fear and greed fell to 11 and has now grown a little. But it may not be the bottom yet.

This year, the minimum index value was 5. Then the bit cost $70K and rose to $81.5K. At the same time, the index ranged from 5 to 27.

To ATH, the bit turned around with fear of 10 and the price of $84.4K at the end of February 25th.

In general, we’ll be a little afraid, and there’s already for all the money in the long.

[kone 🗝️ @0xkeylab]

@Polymarket We can safely say that IT people destroyed the markets. since AI, privacy came all from IT.

[kone 🗝️ @0xkeylab]

@TedPillows We can safely say that IT people destroyed the markets. since AI, privacy came all from IT.

[kone 🗝️ @0xkeylab]

@Param_eth We can safely say that IT people destroyed the markets. since AI, privacy came all from IT.

[kone 🗝️ @0xkeylab]

@trader1sz We can safely say that IT people destroyed the markets. since AI, privacy came all from IT.