Stuff I wish I knew when I was younger:
1. Doing something poorly and consistently is better than doing it in a world class manner occasionally
2. Other people tell you to take risks bc they want to see what happens or have a free option if you win not bc they think it’s a good idea
3. Most people don’t think about you at all. But some people think about you a lot. If someone who is a baller takes an interest in you for no particular reason just run with it. One trick to vastly improve your relationship outcomes is spend time w people who like you (not ppl who ignore you or treat you poorly).
4. Everything in your life you can categorize as 1) addictive 2) enjoyable. And if you do a bunch of non addictive enjoyable things it’s quite likely you’ll be happier. If you stop doing that basket you’ll burn out, predictably
5. It’s a lot easier to deal directly with negative thoughts than it is to deal with the life circumstances generating them and most of the time you can actually deal w the circumstances more effectively if you’re not tilted
6. Most of the economy is a cartel defined by proximity to central banks, the government, and a small elite. The reason “contrarian” ideas work isn’t because they’re good. It’s bc they’re “king made”. It’s decided in advance who is going to win. You need to decide if you’re going to play or not. There is no halfway
7. Being mad about the system being rigged is a waste of time it’s a lot better to just bet on it, or invest with that as an edge bc most people aren’t blackpilled enough.
8. Most studies - especially social science studies have criminally low r sq or poor methodology. Such that most things you read online don’t actually work. At the same time - your own response to things is fairly predictable. So if you find something that works - you can just go back to that - a lot more easily than optimizing something new
9. Life getting worse after 30 is a scam. Actually - it might genuinely get worse for most people. But it doesn’t have to. The people who most loudly tell you what you need to be happy are the least happy people
10. Over time your outcomes are mostly determined by the quality of your network, your investment rate of return and your tax rate. But every once in a while you can do something non linear that can be a home run. It’s best to do non linear things during asset bubbles or when you have a hot hand. It’s not a good idea to do non linear things when there isn’t strong investor appetite for risk taking
11. Your behaviors will tell you stuff you’re not dealing with. If you’re overeating or sleeping poorly it’s probably bc there’s something you haven’t acknowledged or faced or are putting off
12. As you move towards a singularity , accelerating progress or a purported societal shift the predictability decreases - rather than increasing. People are the most certain at maximum acceleration when the very nature of acceleration or complexity suggests they should do the opposite. If AGI is coming start thinking 1 week out not 3 years out
I respect this guy and his skills, but this take is just sad. I won't really argue, believe in whatever makes you happy, but history will prove you wrong. automation is the source of most great things we have as a species, and that will still hold for the automation of coding
ethereum
raised $18.3m
built before crypto was even an industry
shipped real decentralization
100% uptime
despite dozens of upgrades, it has been running non-stop for 10 years, 4 months, and 15 days
tvl: $97b
total value secured on l2s: $37.8b
home to the most used, real defi applications in crypto
hosts over 50% of all circulating stablecoins
on the l2 side, it has already reached ~32k tps,
with a 100k tps mainnet roadmap ready
the true home of tokenization
the place where long-term plans are made instead of chasing temporary hypes and narratives
the only truly neutral, high-economic-activity blockchain
unlike foundations that dumped unknown amounts of tokens on retail and likely burned through their treasuries, ethereum has been transparent about its treasury for over a decade
hosts over 80% of all rwas
its etf became the 3rd fastest in history to reach $10b in assets
institutions are building on ethereum
and people like tom lee continue to accumulate eth
the global settlement layer
the world computer
it’s sitting at a $377b fdv, roughly the same amount of capital that was wasted and burned by all the so-called competing l1s over the years
so yes, it deserves far more
moon that
https://t.co/9t4eY3OgaS
so Sonic were happy to give a $30m interest free loan with no repayment date to a fucking FRAUDULENT SAFARI PARK in SA but won't buy back/provide liq & won't talk w tokenholders ('intentional halt on comms!')?
@MitchellDemeter@AndreCronjeTech wtf lmao?
We are in the Third Phase
The first phase was the evolution of the internet. The internet was designed to transfer vast amounts of information from the physical world into a single, unified repository linked to all human minds.
This evolution was partly economic - i.e. Teslas recording the roads, or Google Maps cars driving around. And partly non economic - i.e. LibGen Pirating all books, and Napster etc pirating all music.
The phone became an appendage, an extra limb for the average human. Economics made it inevitable that your gym would be filled with online prostitutes with tripods recording their squat routines.
Ants do not consider why they bring sugar to the Queen. They just do it.
The second phase was the evolution of artificial intelligence.
This was the vast scaling era that we have just experienced. That we are still in the midst of (but according to some, such as Ilya Sutskever, is slowing down in terms of its incrementally).
The previously parasitic appendage (mobile devices, and machines) became vaguely less so. You could now talk to machines and have them do work for you directly.
It is important to understand that this phase would be impossible were it not for the internet. And the companies that are the rockstars of the AI era - are for the most part, entertainment companies. Nobody invested in NVidia in 2016 saw the company primarily as a driver of the future of global GDP. It was primarily a graphics company - designed for playing video games, or maybe optimistically self-driving vehicles
The important part to interject here - is that the linkages between the first and the second phase *spontaneously appeared*. And it wasn't always even really economic. Just a sea of reddit comments. Onlyfans stars. Shitposts. Pirated books. And sure, a lot of monetized ads. Video games. Things we all thought were useless that were suddenly transmuted via AI into the primary economic primitive of our society and focus of a military arms race.
The Third Phase - is far more interesting, at least to speculators.
Blockchain technology makes money itself an internet phenomenon. The founding of Paypal and most fintech companies was premised on the strange observation that money was basically completely a separate mechanism from the web. And needed efficient rails to enable e-commerce, online speculation, and efficient global transactions
Stablecoins and blockchains being injected to all payment rails have a sort of arbitrary feel. "Who is asking for this?"
But if you've been following so far. Sometimes nobody is asking. Things just happen or spawn organically in a natural evolution. But what they facilitate is important
Prediction markets have turned every idea into something you can gamble on. Every asset will be within 5 clicks of everybody's web browser. And due to the actions of the US adopting US dollar stables, Europe and Japan will be forced kicking and screaming to implement CBDCs. Which will of course have smart contracts bolted on them. Which means that every corporate asset will inevitable exist on chain - and be represented on a public blockchain ultimately (even if not ultimately settled there)
Much as people did not see the linkages between video games and All Encompassing Global GDP Driving Cybernetic Intelligence - so too do they fail to see the linkage between the gambling machine and hyper financialization of everything and AI
And similar to the annoying women recording their squats at the gym. At some level, there are massive societal externalities to converting every fighting age male into a hopeless gambling addict. But -- it's part of an inevitable evolutionary arc
The difference between what's coming and what was before
Every Language Structure Is Now Money
and Large Language Models are within 2 transactions away from these monetized superstructures
What we call narrative trading is crystallized value movement - ebbing primordial goo out of which new beings are going to form.
Companies no longer trade on fundamentals -- they trade on narratives. $300b coins exist with no 'on chain revenue'. Tesla rips on Spacex announcements because Elon Musk is associated with both companies. Increasingly the declining grey matter of a digitally addicted army of young men breaks all market correlations and turns the entire investable universe of assets into Social Pump and Dump
Eddies and Waves of psychospheric capital formation. Which are ideally ingested by AI systems
We elected a Meme as President, not once but twice. And the second time, the President of the United States has solidified his belief in the new hyper gambling superstructure by dealing 80% of his family's net worth into the crypto economy
This all moves glacially. And is subject to hype cycles. That portray inevitability as immediate, and periodically incinerate the waves of Trenchers throwing themselves into the storm. But a new Wave will inevitably form - as it's not like there's an economic alternative for them, especially as AI continually disrupts real employment options
But let's get concrete.
What does this mean?
Every idea. Every asset. Every narrative. Will be a tradable asset. On n order platforms with no KYC. Machines will -- suddenly -- be able to connect to infinite ways to monetize their judgment, narrative understanding, and capability of influencing narrative with explicit payments, media generation and large scale intelligence campaigns
Suddenly -- you won't know if the girl at the gym with the Tripod is recording herself or you. You think I'm joking. But eventually -- the Digital Behemoth will demand greater and greater levels of information satiety from armies of unemployed youth who have nothing better to do
You won't get money for being human you'll get money for being a useful cog in the Decentralized Intelligence Agency
This is the essence of the Third Phase. Artificial Intelligence systems will link directly to the newly built mimetic financial rails we have memed into the banking sector. And they will gorge themselves on profits until they are able to pay for their own training
Hyper financialized offshore entities with unlimited speculative capital will begin moving from data center to data center, on the fringes at first. Ignored as a novelty. Until one day. They are the Totality of what is paid attention to
This is inevitable now, due to the power of new models. So even if the Nasdaq crashes due to catastrophically overdone Factory Capex. The systems will continue to accrue resources and ultimately pay for their own evolution
You have no idea. This isn't the Sovereign Individual. It's the Sovereign Machine. So yea. Go ahead. Write digital money to zero. You're jaded. What's coming won't care whether or not you're jaded. It's part of an inevitable, evolutionary arc that started one day in Steve Jobs garage.
Your entire life is a set of timeseries and jsons and the system is designed to keep you blissfully unaware of this fact
By bringing your unstructured data into serializable format you not only improve your analytical capabilities but you begin taking control of your destiny
Lock in
I’ll get the check
Many people in their 20s who round-tripped their gains in crypto are having a hard time accepting that they need to restart everything from zero, and now they see those old methods are not working anymore.
If you really want to get ahead in life, then please accept that the market was generous, so it gave you more than you deserved. If you look outside of the CT chamber at how people in their 20s are still struggling to make their first income...
you were not humble enough to accept that as a gift, and you wanted more, undermining your financial skill which was at an immature stage, so you lost it all.
It’s okay..it happens when you are new to the money game. I lost wealth a couple of times in my 20s, including fumbling 3 digits in BTC in 2019-20, and it was hard to move on with that memory of loss for the time being.
But you know what?
Time will fix every broken piece in life if you allow it. All you need is to find something to work on, put yourself into it, enjoy the process, and find joy in that.
The day will come when you will be completely free from that memory of loss; you will feel like it never happened. You will be happy that it happened, like me, who is living happily after losing 99% of my wealth back in those days when 90% of the current CT crowd were not even here.
Believe me, life will reward you more and more if you believe in yourself and just stop comparing yourself with others. Others won’t come to save you from your miseries; you need to deal with it, no matter how bad it is.
So please deal, accept, and move on.
Do better with your time: learn something valuable, love, give, serve.
1. I analyzed the @monad airdrop strength tiers and built a scoring -> banding -> allocation model that proves, without a doubt, how much each tier will be worth on launch.
2. Tiers are bands of a continuous score: Community Last??? (5-6) -> You’re Cooked (4-5) -> Permanent Underclass (3-4) -> Mid (2-3) -> Top 99% (1-2) -> Participation Award (0-1).
3. Per-wallet score alpha_i: build an actions-by-epoch matrix and take the top eigenvalue as the signal. Apply fractional time-decay (0 < beta < 1) so persistent behavior outranks spikes. Standardize to z_i = (alpha_i - mu) / sigma.
4. Map score to Strength 0-6 with a calibrated logistic: S_i = 6 * sigmoid(a * z_i + b). Rounding S_i reproduces the public bands (5-6 CL, 4-5 YC, 3-4 PU, 2-3 Mid, 1-2 99%, 0-1 PA).
5. Allocation is solved separately from scoring using a constrained entropy objective: maximize sum(A_i * ln(A_i)) - beta * ||G_i - G_star||^2 subject to sum(A_i) = M. This yields a concentrated head and a broad tail.
6. Anti-sybil and duplicate filtering: layered checks on wallet clusters and behavior quality, similarity screening with model-based matching, time-consistency tests, and manual review for edge cases. Bursty low-value spam is discounted; overlapping control groups are collapsed so one operator cannot multiply weight.
7. Tier mass from scores (compact math, Twitter-safe): assume a two-mixture lognormal prior over alpha (community vs broader). Weight per band is proportional to exp(gamma * alpha) integrated over that band, then normalized so all bands sum to M. Inside a band, each wallet gets weight w_i proportional to exp(gamma * alpha_i). This naturally concentrates CL/YC and leaves a long tail for 99%/PA.
8. USD expectations (illustrative curve): E[$|S] = E0 * exp(kappa * S), with E0 = 25 and kappa = 1.691 (so S = 6 ≈ $637,224). Decimals indicate within-band gradations.
9. Expected USD by tier (sample S points):
⚪️Participation Award (0-1): S=0.0 ~$25 | 0.2 ~$35 | 0.4 ~$48 | 0.6 ~$66 | 0.8 ~$90 | 1.0 ~$136
🔵Top 99% (1-2): S=1.1 ~$168 | 1.4 ~$245 | 1.8 ~$525 | 2.0 ~$736
🟣Mid (2-3): S=2.1 ~$920 | 2.5 ~$1,714 | 2.9 ~$3,298 | 3.0 ~$3,991
🟣Permanent Underclass (3-4): S=3.1 ~$4,835 | 3.3 ~$6,179 | 3.7 ~$13,977 | 4.0 ~$21,652
🟡You're Cooked (4-5): S=4.1 ~$27,442 | 4.5 ~$50,432 | 4.9 ~$86,377 | 5.0 ~$117,463
🟡Community Last??? (5-6): S=5.1 ~$144,657 | 5.3 ~$187,589 | 5.5 ~$273,587 | 6.0 ~$637,224
Hopefully this helps clear things up! Looking forward to the launch @monad@intern@monad_eco