Sven Ocean

Pudgys | Bitcoin | AI | NFTs | This is my personal journal, no financial advise✌️

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Good Morning from Germany, where the entire Dax – the 40 largest listed companies – is barely bigger than SpaceX, now valued at $2.1tn. One rocket company versus corporate Germany.

[Douglas A. Boneparth @dougboneparth]

If the Knicks can come back from being down 30 points, your portfolio can come back from being down 30%.

[Sven Ocean @0xnevs]

Healthy view on things.

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

I have found the key to happiness is gratitude. The thankful are by nature humbled by the grace of others and cognizant of the miracles that surround us every single day.

[mert @mert]

I think the biggest downside of saylor is not him selling or any ponzi mechanic

it's the fact that he's now 90% of all discourse around BTC, which crowds out the much more fun discourse on adoption, technology, and philosophy of the project

[Ansem @blknoiz06]

disagree, crypto is just going through a maturation phase

stablecoins, perps, & tokenization as themes will continue to proliferate throughout the global economy, and there will be many successful crypto startups that do well

hyperliquid is just the first of many startups that has done a great job of illustrating how open blockchains & tokenization of a business can be a dominant combination

current issues with sentiment around crypto are due to the largest coins not doing well, BTC went from $0.01 to $100k per coin in less than two decades, it very successfully achieved it's goal of maintaining value against the dollar as USD continuously lost its value, present day problems with the ponzification of bitcoin due to saylor's shenanigans is a temporary thing, i dont think you see btc trend aggressively again until that situation is resolved, also quantum concerns are real, those two things along with exit liquidity from institutions were strong reasons for BTC OGs to derisk into excess liquidity as we've seen examples of with that large galaxy otc sale they facilitated ($9B sale in 2025 for one entity), there are many individuals like that who are up infinite

but bitcoin underperforming for a few years after outperforming every other asset on earth for over a decade does not mean crypto is dead, thats silly

ethereum also is suffering for its own individual reasons, i feel like ive talked about this enough on here but yes its been outcompeted by new entrants & has not done a good job of making eth a great asset to hold, every L1 is struggling on the demand side because historically the story around these tokens was future growth & not real revenues, but now that hyperliquid has demonstrably shown that you can connect a business directly to the L1 token the previous L1s are struggling bc they dont capture enough revenues from the apps that use their infra, eth has it even worse bc it also outsources execution activity to rollups

but this also does not mean there cannot be more successful crypto startups

there is a very clear trend of regulation improving for crypto in general, which will make it much easier for entrepreneurs to build businesses that use crypto, it is also clear that existing tech companies are acknowledging the advantages of using blockchains as we've seen with robinhood, stripe/tempo, & others

AI has taken a lot of the mindshare away from crypto as tech stocks have been much better trades since the bottom in 2022, id say it would be extremely foolish to not be splitting time between stocks & crypto as a trader, before it made sense to be overexposed to crypto if you were willing to take on the risk as it was a new industry that experienced supernormal returns as it became more mainstream

three underdiscussed tailwinds for crypto as AI models become exponentially better over the next few years

1) open source AI will become a lot more competitive with closed source AI
2) it will become more easier for smaller teams to build successful startups using software
3) stablecoins & blockchains are much better rails for AI agents to transact on

combination of these trends means that it's likely that you see more crypto experimentation w/ tokens not less, especially as regulatory environment improves *and* retail speculation becomes a megatrend

[jez (equity perps era) @izebel_eth]

jokes aside, going to sign off on this note before going to bed:

im one of the bigger crypto believers i know, and these past six months have tested me like no other bear has, mainly for the fact that i don't see any easy way out/reason it'd turn around quickly

people are leaving who wont come back right away, capital continues to choose better opportunities with more certainty, dat overhangs will cast a long shadow

and thats coming from a position of strength, spot/cash - those who believed on leverage or picked the wrong coins are going through worse trials

its going to get worse before it gets better

but it will get better, it always does, theres a finite supply of btc in an infinite money printing world, and some day in the next year after leaving and not paying attn those people will realize btc is 80k again, and if it can survive saylor it can survive anything

[Sven Ocean @0xnevs]

👀

[zoomer @zoomerfied]

[ ZOOMER ]

THE NSA HAS BEEN USING ANTHROPIC'S MYTHOS FOR OFFENSIVE HACKING, EVEN AS THE US FIGHTS LEGAL BATTLE WITH ANTHROPIC: SEMAFOR

[jez (equity perps era) @izebel_eth]

its easy to believe when you're getting rich

but do you have the guts to believe when its embarassing to

[Udi Wertheimer @udiWertheimer]

diabolical

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

BREAKING: Over $500,000,000 liquidated from the cryptocurrency market in the past hour.

• $BTC: $61,100
• $ETH : $1,620
• $BNB: $570
• $XRP: $1.10
• $SOL: $64

[Pudgy Penguins @pudgypenguins]

All you have to do is believe.

[Byzantine General @ByzGeneral]

Pretty insane stuff.

Highest $BTC long liquidations event since the infamous October 10 black swan event.

One of the highest liq events in years.

[Sven Ocean @0xnevs]

@pudgypenguins Pam

[Sven Ocean @0xnevs]

@heart_ Oh wow. Agreed with the 2 above. Also Gomorra is great. Best Italian production ever so far to me. It never got boring and kicked till the end.
Succession is very good too. But I think that I enjoyed GOT or Breaking Bad slightly more.
But still, very good rating. Bravo!

[Xin Song @xinsong86]

Since 2025, only 6 of 41 tokens are above above their listing price and that's a result of how the system is built.

Most assets launch too soon without the
distribution, liquidity or maturity you’d see in traditional markets. But this can change.

That’s what GSR is focused on.

[Justin Drake @drakefjustin]

Today is a monumentous day for quantum computing and cryptography. Two breakthrough papers just landed (links in next tweet). Both papers improve Shor's algorithm, infamous for cracking RSA and elliptic curve cryptography. The two results compound, optimising separate layers of the quantum stack. The results are shocking. I expect a narrative shift and a further R&D boost toward post-quantum cryptography.

The first paper is by Google Quantum AI. They tackle the (logical) Shor algorithm, tailoring it to crack Bitcoin and Ethereum signatures. The algorithm runs on ~1K logical qubits for the 256-bit elliptic curve secp256k1. Due to the low circuit depth, a fast superconducting computer would recover private keys in minutes. I'm grateful to have joined as a late paper co-author, in large part for the chance to interact with experts and the alpha gleaned from internal discussions.

The second paper is by a stealthy startup called Oratomic, with ex-Google and prominent Caltech faculty. Their starting point is Google's improvements to the logical quantum circuit. They then apply improvements at the physical layer, with tricks specific to neutral atom quantum computers. The result estimates that 26,000 atomic qubits are sufficient to break 256-bit elliptic curve signatures. This would be roughly a 40x improvement in physical qubit count over previous state-of-the-art. On the flip side, a single Shor run would take ~10 days due to the relatively slow speed of neutral atoms.

Below are my key takeaways. As a disclaimer, I am not a quantum expert. Time is needed for the results to be properly vetted. Based on my interactions with the team, I have faith the Google Quantum AI results are conservative. The Oratomic paper is much harder for me to assess, especially because of the use of more exotic qLDPC codes. I will take it with a grain of salt until the dust settles.

→ q-day: My confidence in q-day by 2032 has shot up significantly. IMO there's at least a 10% chance that by 2032 a quantum computer recovers a secp256k1 ECDSA private key from an exposed public key. While a cryptographically-relevant quantum computer (CRQC) before 2030 still feels unlikely, now is undoubtedly the time to start preparing.
→ censorship: The Google paper uses a zero-knowledge (ZK) proof to demonstrate the algorithm's existence without leaking actual optimisations. From now on, assume state-of-the-art algorithms will be censored. There may be self-censorship for moral or commercial reasons, or because of government pressure. A blackout in academic publications would be a tell-tale sign.
→ cracking time: A superconducting quantum computer, the type Google is building, could crack keys in minutes. This is because the optimised quantum circuit is just 100M Toffoli gates, which is surprisingly shallow. (Toffoli gates are hard because they require production of so-called "magic states".) Toffoli gates would consume ~10 microseconds on a superconducting platform, totalling ~1,000 sec of Shor runtime.
→ latency optimisations: Two latency optimisations bring key cracking time to single-digit minutes. The first parallelises computation across quantum devices. The second involves feeding the pubkey to the quantum computer mid-flight, after a generic setup phase.
→ fast- and slow-clock: At first approximation there are two families of quantum computers. The fast-clock flavour, which includes superconducting and photonic architectures, runs at roughly 100 kHz. The slow-clock flavour, which includes trapped ion and neutral atom architectures, runs roughly 1,000x slower (~100 Hz, or ~1 week to crack a single key).
→ qubit count: The size-optimised variant of the algorithm runs on 1,200 logical qubits. On a superconducting computer with surface code error correction that's roughly 500K physical qubits, a 400:1 physical-to-logical ratio. The surface code is conservative, assuming only four-way nearest-neighbour grid connectivity. It was demonstrated last year by Google on a real quantum computer.
→ future gains: Low-hanging fruit is still being picked, with at least one of the Google optimisations resulting from a surprisingly simple observation. Interestingly, AI was not (yet!) tasked to find optimisations. This was also the first time authors such as Craig Gidney attacked elliptic curves (as opposed to RSA). Shor logical qubit count could plausibly go under 1K soonish.
→ error correction: The physical-to-logical ratio for superconducting computers could go under 100:1. For superconducting computers that would be mean ~100K physical qubits for a CRQC, two orders of magnitude away from state of the art. Neutral atoms quantum computers are amenable to error correcting codes other than the surface code. While much slower to run, they can bring down the physical to logical qubit ratio closer to 10:1.
→ Bitcoin PoW: Commercially-viable Bitcoin PoW via Grover's algorithm is not happening any time soon. We're talking decades, possibly centuries away. This observation should help focus the discussion on ECDSA and Schnorr. (Side note: as unofficial Bitcoin security researcher, I still believe Bitcoin PoW is cooked due to the dwindling security budget.)
→ team quality: The folks at Google Quantum AI are the real deal. Craig Gidney (@CraigGidney) is arguably the world's top quantum circuit optimisooor. Just last year he squeezed 10x out of Shor for RSA, bringing the physical qubit count down from 10M to 1M. Special thanks to the Google team for patiently answering all my newb questions with detailed, fact-based answers. I was expecting some hype, but found none.

[Sven Ocean @0xnevs]

Oh 👀, biggest staking event from the foundation so far. Interesting.

[Lookonchain @lookonchain]

The #EthereumFoundation just staked 22,517 $ETH($46.25M).

https://t.co/3V40uW89I4

[Daan Crypto Trades @DaanCrypto]

$SPX Big level for stocks here. Swept the October 2025 lows.

Now down -7.5% from the all time highs. Nothing major just yet but this is a key high timeframe area to hold next week.