Satisfyme

vibing on prediction markets

[Satisfyme @0xsatisfyme]

🚨🚨🚨The gameplay of GTA VI was leaked online - appearing to be playing basketball at home

The video could have been leaked by hackers, but it has not yet been confirmed.

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A MORGAN STANLEY TRAINING MANUAL CALLED THE OTHER BANK'S TRADERS UNEDUCATED https://t.co/HoxqhuukJK

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🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨OMG WE CAN SEE IT ALLREADY

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🚨🚨🚨The gameplay of GTA VI was leaked online - appearing to be playing basketball at home

The video could have been leaked by hackers, but it has not yet been confirmed.

[Satisfyme @0xsatisfyme]

A MAN TRADING FROM HIS PARENTS' HOUSE IN WEST LONDON MADE $40 MILLION PLACING ORDERS HE NEVER INTENDED TO FILL

most people assume a quant makes money by predicting where price goes. almost none of them do that.

the real job is inventory. a market maker quotes a price to buy and a price to sell at the same time, collects the gap between them thousands of times a day, and spends the rest of his attention trying not to get run over in between. the model is not forecasting the close. it answers one question in microseconds: is the person hitting my quote smarter than me right now.

so the whole business runs on reading the order book. that stack of resting bids and offers is the only live evidence anybody has about supply and demand. when a wall of buyers appears three ticks under the market, every algorithm on the tape shifts up, and shifting up is the correct response to what it sees.

which makes the attack obvious. fake the evidence.

that is spoofing. you post large orders you plan to cancel, on the side you do not want to trade. the book now looks like demand. faster participants climb over each other to get in front of it. you sell your real position into the buying you manufactured, pull the fakes in milliseconds, and price sags back to where it started.

Navinder Sarao ran this from a bedroom in Hounslow for five years. he pleaded guilty to spoofing and wire fraud and forfeited $12.9 million. his orders were in the market on 6 May 2010, the afternoon the Flash Crash briefly erased close to a trillion dollars of US equity value.

he was neither the first one caught nor the largest.

Michael Coscia became the first person criminally convicted under the anti-spoofing language Dodd-Frank wrote in 2010. the case covered three months of trading. he was sentenced to three years.

JPMorgan paid $920 million in September 2020 over spoofing in precious metals and Treasuries. one rogue trader does not generate a $920 million settlement. that was a desk.

here is the part that outlives the case files.

price discovery only works if a resting order is a promise. every anti-spoofing rule written since 2010 defends that single assumption, because without it the screen stops being information and turns into advertising.

the screen is not the market. the screen is what somebody decided to show you.

pull up a liquidity heatmap on any crypto pair and watch a wall of bids sit under price for eight seconds, then disappear the instant it stops being useful. same pattern that put Coscia away for three years. on most of those venues nobody is even watching.

[Satisfyme @0xsatisfyme]

A MORGAN STANLEY TRAINING MANUAL CALLED THE OTHER BANK'S TRADERS UNEDUCATED https://t.co/HoxqhuukJK

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@0xMiraqle Unbelievable technique

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@mr_kozh the financial crisis inquiry commission spent two years documenting exactly this and published it free in 2011. citigroup went from 18 to 1 leverage to 32 to 1 by end-2007. it is right there in the conclusions

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THE MAN IN THIS CLIP RAN RISK ON HARVARD'S $30 BILLION. HE IS EXPLAINING WHY TWO BANKS WENT TO WAR OVER THE NAME OF A NUMBER

Mid-1990s. Jake Xia moves from Salomon Brothers to the options desk at Morgan Stanley. first morning he asks for the vega report, and the quant hands him the new-hire training manual instead of answering.

At Morgan Stanley the number is called kappa. the footnote under the definition explains why, and it is an insult aimed straight at the bank he had just left.

Then the part almost nobody checks. vega is not a Greek letter. there is no V in Greek at all, and kappa is the tenth.

The number measuring your volatility exposure is named after a star twenty-five light years away, and nobody can prove how it got there.

FULL BREAKDOWN

[Satisfyme @0xsatisfyme]

A MORGAN STANLEY TRAINING MANUAL CALLED THE OTHER BANK'S TRADERS UNEDUCATED https://t.co/HoxqhuukJK

[Satisfyme @0xsatisfyme]

@Atenov_D ye, about finance in general

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@cb_doge the monthly report is the part worth caring about. a single snapshot tells you almost nothing. a time series lets you line up the week your reach collapsed with the exact day a label landed 😀😀

[Satisfyme @0xsatisfyme]

HE HAD RUN RISK ON HARVARD'S $30 BILLION FOR TWO MONTHS. THEN HE TOLD A CLASS IT IS MORE ART THAN SCIENCE

Jake Xia, seventeen years at Morgan Stanley, opens his first MIT lecture in 2013 by dismantling his own subject.

The field is thirty years old. traders used to get hired out of the mail room.

Two of the biggest banks on Wall Street could not agree what to call the number that measures volatility exposure. one of them wrote the insult into its training manual, in a footnote.

Trend following worked for a while. momentum worked for a while. then everyone ran them and the edge decayed on its own presence.

His instruction: stop asking whether the maths is right. ask how the concept got established in the first place.

A man two months into a thirty billion dollar risk seat, telling nineteen year olds to check the foundations.

[Satisfyme @0xsatisfyme]

A MORGAN STANLEY TRAINING MANUAL CALLED THE OTHER BANK'S TRADERS UNEDUCATED https://t.co/HoxqhuukJK

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@oleh_bernatskyi I think they will definitely help everyone they can.

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🚨🚨🚨132 DEAD. 570 INJURED. A 7.4 EARTHQUAKE JUST TORE THROUGH WESTERN COLOMBIA.

The epicentre was San José del Palmar, a town of about 4,800 people in the Chocó region, roughly 400km west of Bogotá.

It collapsed hospitals. it collapsed schools. in Cali, a city of two million, the mayor says people are still trapped inside at least 19 separate buildings.

Pereira lost 60 people on its own.

Five cities are under red alert, the highest disaster level the country has. seven airports have stopped operating. hospitals, roads, water, power and telecoms are all down across the worst-hit areas.

Colombia has declared a state of emergency.

The number at the top of this post is from the last few hours and it is still moving.

[Satisfyme @0xsatisfyme]

A MORGAN STANLEY TRAINING MANUAL CALLED THE OTHER BANK'S TRADERS UNEDUCATED https://t.co/HoxqhuukJK

[Satisfyme @0xsatisfyme]

VEGA IS NOT A GREEK LETTER. YOU HAVE BEEN USING IT FOR YEARS ANYWAY

Count them: alpha, beta, gamma, delta, epsilon, zeta, eta, theta, iota, kappa, lambda, mu, nu, xi, omicron, pi, rho, sigma, tau, upsilon, phi, chi, psi, omega.

Twenty four letters and not one of them is vega. there is no V in Greek at all.

Delta is real. gamma is real. so are theta and rho. the one that measures your volatility exposure is a star twenty five light years away, named in Arabic for a swooping eagle.

Mid-1990s. a trader moves from Salomon Brothers to the options desk at Morgan Stanley. first morning he asks the quant for the vega report, and the quant hands him the new-hire training manual instead of answering.

At Morgan Stanley the number is called kappa. under the definition there is a footnote explaining why: kappa is also called vega by uneducated traders at Salomon Brothers, who mistook it for a Greek letter after gambling in Vegas.

He had arrived from Salomon Brothers that week. he had used the word that morning.

Now the part that should actually bother you. nobody can prove where the term came from. that footnote is one man's memory of one page, and no independent source documents it. an industry pricing trillions of dollars of contracts cannot tell you the origin of one of its five core terms.

So it borrowed. the glyph printed for vega is nu. academics reach for tau or capital lambda, and some desks just say kappa.

Four genuine Greek letters, pressed into service to label the one number that never got its own.

The man telling this story spent seventeen years at Morgan Stanley. He was two months into running risk on Harvard's thirty billion dollar endowment when he told it to a room of undergraduates

[Satisfyme @0xsatisfyme]

A MORGAN STANLEY TRAINING MANUAL CALLED THE OTHER BANK'S TRADERS UNEDUCATED https://t.co/HoxqhuukJK

[Satisfyme @0xsatisfyme]

A MORGAN STANLEY TRAINING MANUAL CALLED THE OTHER BANK'S TRADERS UNEDUCATED https://t.co/HoxqhuukJK

[Satisfyme @0xsatisfyme]

14 DEALERS PRICED LEHMAN AT 8.625 CENTS. THE PAPER CAME BACK AT 46.7 CENTS

MIT Sloan, fall 2008. mid-auction, box wrapped and hands off, a student asks Andrew Lo if he can short it.

"No shorting, sorry. I'm the only auctioneer here."

It went for $45. inside was a $149 iPod.

Works in reverse too. if the box is yours and nobody else gets to look inside, you say what's in it.

Accounting has a bucket for exactly that. Level 3, inputs nobody can observe, which means the bank's own assumptions.

Lehman's last balance sheet, May 31, 2008: $41,344 million of Level 3 against $26,276 million of equity. 157% of the capital underneath it.

107 days later, Chapter 11.

October 10. the auction calls in 14 dealers and the bonds print at 8.625 cents. sellers of protection wired $5.2 billion on the 21st.

46.737% that is what senior unsecured creditors of the holding company have taken across 30 distributions, the last one in April 2025, and the estate is still open. sixteen years of waiting, so discount it hard.

The auction was no outlier either. bonds implied about 30 cents the day Lehman filed and about 9 a month after. the whole market was off by 38 points.

Lo's session 1 costs nothing. the same lesson priced at 8.625 cost $5.2 billion

[Miraqle @0xMiraqle]

The bell curve says a market crash is impossible. In 1987 the market fell 22.6% in a single day.

Every great blowup, LTCM, 2008, is the same story: someone trusted a distribution that was lying about the exact thing that could kill them. https://t.co/qcnilKfawV

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@hunterxtwt just need investments...

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@quaramly I absolutely agree, the topic is fully covered

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SOMEBODY BID $31 FOR A BOX NOBODY WAS ALLOWED TO TOUCH.

MIT Sloan, fall 2008. Andrew Lo auctions a wrapped package. no touching, no shaking, cash only. it sells for $45. inside is an iPod Nano, retail $149.

"If you're trying to sell an asset sight unseen, and you need to do it immediately, a 66% discount is actually pretty fair."

Weeks earlier Merrill Lynch sold $30.6 billion of mortgage CDOs at 21.9 cents on the dollar, and lent the buyer 75% of the money.

The classroom got a third. Wall Street got a fifth.

The lecture is free

[Satisfyme @0xsatisfyme]

A PROFESSOR SOLD AN UNKNOWN BOX FOR $45. THAT WAS THE ENTIRE LESSON https://t.co/tEJPdvnozi

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@27Rovik Ask any killer this question and you won't hear an answer

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🚨🚨🚨🚨A 14 year old killed his grandparents in Thailand this morning, then drove to a school near Bangkok and opened fire. five staff dead, 23 injured, and he took his own life at the scene.

Reuters is reporting it as the deadliest shooting in the country since the 2022 nursery attack in Nong Bua Lamphu that killed 36 people, most of them children under five.

Thailand has the highest rate of civilian gun ownership in Southeast Asia. it also requires a licence for every firearm. the distance between those two facts is where this keeps happening.

[Satisfyme @0xsatisfyme]

A PROFESSOR SOLD AN UNKNOWN BOX FOR $45. THAT WAS THE ENTIRE LESSON https://t.co/tEJPdvnozi

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@MAGADevilDog