@icyponds Yeah I hear ya. Not great that my strongest signal is mostly how torched everyone thinks it is.
I think we all can agree bonds is absolutely not it.
To counter myself, historically, btc and crypto at large have been able to shapeshift into whatever narrative necessary
I don’t think that’s fundamentally changed with Bitcoin. Guess most of my trepidation comes from people reasonably willing to step out on the risk curve via enthusiasm or greed.
I don’t see much investible as the future of France and the https://t.co/HlQF5BlTcF paradigm one shotted the casino.
However I do think there is a possibility of decentralized AI infra creating some excitement and you never really know when something comes along in this space and it just clicks immediately (hyperliquid).
Once again would absolutely love to be wrong. But the set up felt much clearer than it does around these levels of bear market malaise.
Provided this cycle (if there is one) is similar. Personally hope so but much less convinced than in my 5 ish years in this space.
Could be a bottom signal. Gonna be very mentally difficult to be “early”.
But then again maybe it’s always darkest before the dawn.
Provided this cycle (if there is one) is similar. Personally hope so but much less convinced than in my 5 ish years in this space.
Could be a bottom signal. Gonna be very mentally difficult to be “early”.
But then again maybe it’s always darkest before the dawn.
the BIGGEST advice for anybody entering their first crypto cycle:
60-70% majors you can hold 6-12 months+: BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE. add accumulation on a schedule, don't watch it
30-40% degen: onchain, momentum, perps. short timeframe stuff
and JOURNAL every trade. thesis + invalidations, written down. it's how i got good in 2020-2021 - my X is living proof of that
Forgive my ignorance, but what is stopping the “commodity” being some unit of output. A refined product of the underlying medley of chips/infra. Eg. A newer more powerful set up can naturally produce more compute futures “contracts” than another producer with a less powerful set up and what is traded is that uniform unit?