@uniquesingh__@Polymarket This time my heart and money are on the same side - Argentina. After that finish against England, I’m backing them to win it in 90 minute
@avalanchexbt after yesterday’s game against England, I’m not sure Argentina will let it go to penalties. Their late attacks looked dangerous, so I still believe they’ll win it in regular time
🐋 A @Polymarket WHALE JUST BET $55,866 ON A U.S. INVASION OF IRAN BEFORE 2027
Wallet 0xc6587b11… bought YES at 20¢, picking up roughly 279K shares.
If the market resolves YES, the position would be worth around $279K.
But there’s an important detail in the resolution rules:
Airstrikes or limited military action alone wouldn’t necessarily count. The U.S. would need to launch an offensive intended to establish control over part of Iranian territory.
So this isn’t simply a bet on tensions escalating.
It’s a $55K bet on an actual territorial invasion happening before 2027.
The market currently gives that scenario roughly a 1-in-5 chance.
20¢ - smart asymmetric bet or terrible risk/reward?