Now I'm seeing people call for totally stupid downside numbers like $2800. If you thought calling for $8000 gold marked the local top, then calls for the largest crash in the history of gold (which is what going to $2800 would entail), you know we're near the bottom. This is just absurd doom and gloom porn.
Silver just tapped the 50 week moving average
Look at the role the 50 week played in the 2002-2011 bull market
Vital to retain it, otherwise just write off a couple years
@badcharts1 calls for $20 ASA, another 60% down on miners in the next 18 months
This is essentially the geometric inverse of @Oliver_MSA
Whoever ends up being correct it will be a hell of call and worth immortalizing
The macro view for Silver is playing out well. Many are starting to believe the bull run is over and we’re right around that 25-30 percent drop. The next phase will come once the formation is complete.
Silver dropped almost 50% from June 1968 to November 1971, and then rallied ~420% into February 1974.
Silver then dropped ~43% into 1976 and then rallied ~1150% by January 1980.
Silver dropped 60% from March to October 2008 and then rallied ~490%.
Gold dropped almost 30% in late-1973 and then rallied almost 100%...and then dropped ~25% and then rallied another 45% all by January 1975.
Gold dropped 50% in 1975 and 1976 and then rallied ~770% by Jan 1980.
Gold dropped ~26% in 2006 and then rallied 90%.
Gold dropped ~35% in 2008 and then rallied 180%.
This sell-off since January 2026 is now the third largest silver has ever had within the context of a bull market, and for gold it's the the fourth largest...almost on par with the 1973 correction and nearly on par with the Great Financial Crisis. In terms of time from top to bottom, this is more akin to the 1973 correction (about 20 weeks) or 2006 (about 20 weeks).
All of these drops led to enormous V-bottom rallies, some so rapid that if they repeated today it would mean $8000+ gold by October.
Precious metals are approaching a major buying window. The biggest long-term gains come from buying when sentiment is washed out and the charts look worst. That's the lowest risk. But you must know what you're buying and its real value.
Gold <200-DMA. Silver <200-DMA.
Gold Miners Bullish % Index = 0.00.
The only other time miner sentiment hit absolute zero was the Dec 2015 bottom — right before lift-off.
Peak pessimism, meet contrarian. In Gold We Trust. 🥇
#gold #silver #goldstocks ht @B@Brien_Lundin for the chart!
GSR is now at the downtrend resistance that's been in place since May of last year
This has underpinned the entire bull market in metals for the last 13 months
Today was a buy or we're facing a much longer (though I'd argue not much larger) bear market
The beautiful thing about rates is that they show much stronger trends than stocks.
Rates also tell you where stocks are going before stocks admit it.
That makes today a clear warning sign.
The US 2-year yield just made a new year-to-date high.
The chart shows the US 2-year yield since the war with Iran began.
My whole life: stocks down, rates down. Today looks like the 1970s. Stocks down. Rates up.
It is not hard to be a commodity bull.