Gold <200-DMA. Silver <200-DMA.
Gold Miners Bullish % Index = 0.00.
The only other time miner sentiment hit absolute zero was the Dec 2015 bottom — right before lift-off.
Peak pessimism, meet contrarian. In Gold We Trust. 🥇
#gold #silver #goldstocks ht @B@Brien_Lundin for the chart!
GSR is now at the downtrend resistance that's been in place since May of last year
This has underpinned the entire bull market in metals for the last 13 months
Today was a buy or we're facing a much longer (though I'd argue not much larger) bear market
The beautiful thing about rates is that they show much stronger trends than stocks.
Rates also tell you where stocks are going before stocks admit it.
That makes today a clear warning sign.
The US 2-year yield just made a new year-to-date high.
The chart shows the US 2-year yield since the war with Iran began.
My whole life: stocks down, rates down. Today looks like the 1970s. Stocks down. Rates up.
It is not hard to be a commodity bull.
Bond yields are at the heart of everything that's going on in the markets & nothing that's happened on this chart in the last 6 years was unexpected. What comes next is not unexpected either. Check the 1970's for reference.
The 2-year real interest rate has now climbed to its highest level since the Trump administration took office.
At the same time, we are living through the deepest and longest drawdown in the history of the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index.
We are moving in the wrong direction and I doubt Scott Bessent is thrilled about either development.
This is the exact opposite of inflating your way out of a debt problem.
Yet investors are increasingly pricing in the possibility of another rate hike.
I suspect policymakers will be forced to address that reality.
When they do, the implications for hard assets could be substantial.
https://t.co/CErNysNiBQ
Stocks, bonds and #gold all moved lower after a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to keep rates higher for longer, at a time when the inflation outlook remains clouded by the ongoing Middle East crisis and elevated energy prices.
The reaction was hardly surprising. A resilient labour market, combined with a conflict that continues to threaten energy supplies and keep oil prices elevated, leaves investors facing the uncomfortable prospect of slower growth without the near-term relief of lower interest rates.
As for gold, we are increasingly seeing a return to the market behaviour that characterised previous cycles. Historically, meaningful corrections tended to persist until investors either fell out of love with the metal or sought a full divorce. Today’s slide below the 200-day moving average has triggered a fresh wave of technical selling, while the inflationary uncertainty created by the energy shock has kept many long-term investors sidelined. Unlike a financial crisis, where falling yields and a weaker dollar typically support gold, a supply-driven inflation shock tends to push yields and the dollar higher, creating a more challenging backdrop.
How much further gold can fall remains uncertain, but from a technical perspective the March correction low stands out as an obvious downside target for momentum and trend-following sellers who initiated positions on the break below the 200-day moving average. Until the inflation outlook becomes clearer and energy markets stabilise, bargain hunters may remain reluctant to step in aggressively.
Now getting close.
In each of the two great bull markets in #preciousmetals, the first major correction was down approximately 35%, lasted about 140 trading days and retested the original low. (one slight undercut).
This should ultimately serve to clear the table for the next leg higher.
$GDX $GDXJ $SGDM $SGDJ $GLD