I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below.
BREAKING: The US Government officially posts its largest July budget deficit in history, at -$432 billion, due to an acceleration in federal spending.
Interest on US debt rose +$26 billion from last July's levels to an alarming $118 billion for the month.
This puts total interest expense for FY2026 up to $1.17 trillion in FY2026.
As a result, interest expense has officially surpassed both National Defense and Medicare spending.
In other words, the US government now spends more money just on interest than it does to fund the entire US Military or to provide healthcare for seniors.
We cannot afford higher interest rates.
Singapore vs London (from someone who has lived in SG for 20+ years and survived 2 months in London):
Phone Safety
🇸🇬 SG: Use your $2,000 iPhone to chope a table at a crowded hawker center while you go order food.
🇬🇧 LDN: Keep your phone zipped in an internal pocket, inside a bag, under a coat, or an e-bike rider will snatch it in 0.2 seconds.
Public Transport
🇸🇬 MRT: A 3-minute delay triggers a national meltdown
🇬🇧 Tube: You pay £4 to sweat in a 40°C underground oven that breaks down weekly.
Weather Strategy
🇸🇬 SG: Step outside into a 34°C sauna, immediately run inside to a -5°C AC freezer.
🇬🇧 LDN: Experience 4 seasons in 20 minutes, declare a national emergency if it hits 30°C.
Happy Birthday Singapore!
Thank you to everyone who has shown kindness and grace over the past few days.
Our small but mighty Client Services team has been working around the clock to meet unprecedented demand, responding to hundreds and hundreds of emails, chats, and calls from clients affected by the Coldcard incident.
We know the wait can be unnerving, but rest assured that the team is working through the queue as quickly and carefully as possible to help keep every client’s bitcoin safe.
We are deeply grateful for your patience.
If you have questions, please see the new FAQ section that has been added to our article about the Coldcard incident:
https://t.co/HDPjXIkAJ7
Dear COLDCARD attackers,
Congratulations. You successfully found a bug, exploited, and have collectively gathered around 1,500 bitcoin.
Now you are sitting on one of the most blacklisted coin stacks in history. It will be nearly impossible for you to exchange for currency or deal with any institution. Every move you make will be highly scrutinized and tracked. Presumably for the rest of your lives, you will be looking over your shoulder.
I suggest you plea with CoinKite to return all stolen funds in return for an audit fee of 5% of the loot. This way your work is rewarded and you are able to enjoy the fruits of your labor.
Respectfully,
hodlers worldwide
Multisig lets you use devices from multiple vendors so a newly-discovered vulnerability affecting only one does not by itself compromise your bitcoin.
We are prioritizing existing clients, but if you need help getting to safe ground, book a free consultation now: https://t.co/KUxnS5Y7sa
If a vulnerability is discovered with a hardware wallet, singlesig wallets can be impacted immediately.
Multisig wallets are safer. Even if several hardware wallets associated with the multisig are affected, if the wallet config remains private you are protected.
https://t.co/aeiVs5HEAf
A message for my $TSLA friends eyeing the SpaceX IPO $SPCX.
I traded $TSLA for years. I know the community. I know the excitement when Elon takes something public. But before you chase @SpaceX at $1.75 trillion, read the S-1 carefully.
SpaceX doesn't need your money.
They raised at $800B in private tenders six months ago. They could raise $50B privately tomorrow with a phone call. This IPO isn't about raising capital. It's about giving insiders liquidity.
95% of @SpaceX shares are held by insiders. Only 5% will be publicly traded. Insiders hold $1.66 trillion in paper wealth they currently can't sell. The IPO changes that.
And they've structured it so insiders can sell BEFORE the standard 180-day lock-up expires. @SpaceX built in early release provisions -- after the first earnings report, insiders can sell up to 20% of their shares.
They're also reserving 30% of IPO shares for retail. Ask yourself -- when has Wall Street ever given retail the best seats in the house unless retail was the product?
100x revenue.
$4.9B net loss.
xAI burning $6.4B a year while @Starlink subsidizes it.
This isn't 2020 Tesla at 20x revenue with a clear path to profitability. This is a different risk profile.
Now here's the part I want you to actually consider.
SpaceX's S-1 sizes their satellite-to-phone business (Starlink Mobile) at a $740 billion TAM. Their Connectivity segment does $11.4B at 63% EBITDA margins. Those numbers are real and impressive.
But buried in the S-1, @SpaceX names their D2D competitor: $ASTS .
@AST_SpaceMobile $40 billion market cap.
Not $1.75 trillion. $40 billion.
Here's what $40B buys you:
98.9 Mbps proven from space to unmodified phones (SpaceX does 3-5 Mbps)
The only low-band D2D spectrum access on Earth (indoor coverage SpaceX can't match)
All three US carriers forming a joint venture around ASTS technology
Google invested $358M
their largest public equity holding
AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone as equity investors
$3.5B cash, $1.2B contracted backlog
3,900 patents, custom ASIC in production
Three satellites launching on a Falcon 9 next month
60 carrier partners covering 3 billion subscribers
@SpaceX at $1.75T is pricing perfection across rockets, satellites, AI, and Mars. One miss and it corrects hard.
$ASTS at $40B is pricing uncertainty in a $740B market where the technology is already proven and the carriers have already chosen sides.
The Tesla community knows what it feels like to find a mispriced stock before the world catches on. $TSLA at $30 pre-split wasn't obvious to anyone except the people who did the work.
$ASTS at $106 in a $740B market with 33x faster speeds than SpaceX D2D, a carrier JV, and institutional discovery just beginning -- that's the same kind of setup.
So before you throw money at a $1.75T IPO where insiders are building exit ramps, maybe look at the $40B competitor they named in their own filing.
Not financial advice. Just math.
$ASTS 🛰️
cc @SawyerMerritt@unusual_whales@DanBTC916
@adamkhootrader Fading UNH now is short-sighted if you know anything about US healthcare and MCOs. It is the perfect example of a good business trading well below it's intrinsic value....so a very odd move.
@Blokkbuzzer@Idiocracy2020s@MarioNawfal@grok The FDA first approved MRgFUS first in 2016 for treatment of tremors. While this isn't perfect, it's a gamechanger for those dealing with tremors on a daily basis https://t.co/UTfMoVOez0
The next two months will put enormous pressure on the Fed.
The oil shock will push inflation higher just as the central bank is already under the spotlight to cut rates, with a newly chosen replacement set to take the chair.
A debt trap will now be colliding with the inflationary pressure of oil and the deflationary pressure of AI.
My new piece on why this is exactly the kind of moment Bitcoin was created for:
https://t.co/csha0Cy4Ov
@ChoiceWarranty has some of the most unprofessional case managers. They are low-balling on an expensive home appliance replacement, but can't even explain how they came up with the cash offer. What a racket because the technician dispatched isn't even replying to emails or calls