Ajhe Li

[Lyle Morris @LyleJMorris]

Important changes to the CMC:

1) Zhang Shuguang (张曙光), promoted to General, and takes over as head of CMC Discipline Inspection Commission and director of the CMC’s supervision committee, replacing Zhang Shengmin.
2) Wang Gang (王刚) promoted to General, and new Commander of the PLA Air Force.

That means Zhang Shengmin will retire soon and Zhang Shuguang will likely become new Vice Chair of CMC. Wang will likely be part of new CMC lineup in 2027.

Other recent developments, Defence Minister Dong Jun and General Han Shengyan, commander of the Central Theatre Command, were pictured on Monday seated next to each other at a gala marking the 105th anniversary of the Communist Party’s founding. It was the first time they had been pictured alongside other senior PLA commanders.

This could be an indication that both Dong and Han may be on track to become CMC members as well.

If I were to guess, new CMC leadership could include Zhang, Wang, Dong, Han, and Yang Zhibin, who was appointed commander of the Eastern Theatre Command in December.

https://t.co/JtKsWeC23V

[Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar]

NEW: The seniormost Russian military command presented a highly inaccurate assessment of the battlefield situation for the fifth consecutive month, absurdly claiming that Russian forces are advancing west of Kupyansk, which they have not, in fact, taken.

Gerasimov’s claimed advances west of Kupyansk and along the Kupyansk-Borova-Lyman line are egregious even in comparison to the most expansive Russian ultranationalist claims in the area.

These aggrandized claims of fictional advances along with milblogger complaints may indicate that the highest echelon of the Russian military command is either unaware of or unwilling to admit the realities of the battlefield even to itself, and is therefore allowing its own falsehoods to influence Russian operational and strategic planning.

Other Key Takeaways:
Russian milbloggers continue to warn that Ukrainian counterattacks and false reports of advances in other areas of the frontline are creating difficult situations to which the Russian military command cannot adequately respond.

The Kremlin continues to expand its passportization efforts in Transnistria – the pro-Russian breakaway region of Moldova — to deepen Russian influence in the region.

Ukrainian forces advanced in the Hulyaipole direction.

Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian defense industrial infrastructure in Stavropol Krai. Russian forces launched 294 drones toward Ukraine overnight.

[AMK Mapping 🇳🇿 @AMK_Mapping_]

In the Komyshuvakha direction, Ukrainian forces intensified their localised counteroffensive operations, making significant progress over the last two weeks.

In the west, following the withdrawal from Russian airborne assault elements to the rear due to high losses, Ukrainian forces managed to clear the grey-zone in Prymorske and broke through to the southern dachas, clearing most of the rest of the village. At the same time, elite GUR forces cleared pockets of Russian resistance east of the settlement, and advanced down the highway to the southeastern dachas where they entrenched on the northern bank of the Sukhyy River, thereby cutting the Russian bridgehead in two.

To the east, Ukrainian special forces continued their clearing operations in Stepnohirsk after repelling Russian attacks towards the town centre. They managed to recapture the eastern streets and fields to the east and are now engaged in fighting for the remaining western streets. Additionally, newly brought in reinforcements managed to establish control over the solar farm and adjacent dachas.

Further east, the Ukrainians cleared the remaining part of the salient following a Russian withdrawal, and began advancing southwest towards Kamyanske. As a result of these attacks, they were able to advance along the tactical heights, recapturing treeline positions northeast of the village along the northern bank of the Kalnachak River. Simultaneously, other assault groups advanced south of the Kalnachak River, recapturing treeline positions there and infiltrating to the eastern outskirts of Kamyanske.

To the southeast, Russian forces resumed assault operations north of Stepove, where they recaptured treeline positions north of the village up to the gulley. On the other hand, Ukrainian forces recaptured positions northeast of Stepove and are attempting to reach the highway.

In the east, Ukrainian forces cleared most of the treeline positions north of Mali Shcherbaky and are attempting to advance northwest of Shcherbaky. On the other hand, Russian forces restarted attacks in Shcherbaky, recapturing the central part of the village and infiltrating up the treelines north of the settlement.

+ ~65.07 km² in favour of Ukraine.
+ ~1.37 km² in favour of Russia.

[Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar]

NEW: Ukraine unilaterally enacted a ceasefire starting at midnight on the night of May 5 to 6 in response to Russia’s unilaterally declared Victory Day ceasefire planned for May 9.

The Russian military ignored Ukraine’s unilaterally-declared ceasefire, and the Kremlin accused Ukraine of violating the ceasefire despite the fact that Russian forces conducted combat missions after the unilateral Ukrainian ceasefire began in the morning of May 6.

Russia decisively ignored the Ukrainian ceasefire and launched a series of drones and missiles that killed at least 21 civilians and injured at least 82.

Russian efforts to shield the Russian populace from the effects of rising global oil prices and damages to Russian oil infrastructure are preventing Russia from realizing the full benefits of increased oil and gas revenue.

Ukrainian forces advanced in Western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian forces advanced in Sumy Oblast.

[NATO Air Command @NATO_AIRCOM]

INCIDENT: We are currently monitoring an unidentified flying sleigh entering NATO airspace. The track originates from the North Pole and is flying an erratic path🎅 
No NATO jets have been scrambled.

[王局志安 @wangzhian8848]

感觉这一年来，大陆明显开始为统一台湾做一系列舆论准备了。从影视剧沉默的荣耀，澎湖海战，到近期新华社人民日报的一系列发文。

台湾不要以为大陆整肃军队内部，就会耽误统一时间表。中共是一个组织力和执行力都很强的政党，一但制定了目标，很少会被暂时因素阻碍。

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

IAF and IDF forces eliminated a Hamas terrorist cell of approximately 20 people that was preparing to carry out an attack on the humanitarian zone in Khan Younis.

After the strike, additional terrorists were identified who were trying to use Gazan children as human shields - they were also eliminated, without civilian casualties.

[Raffy Tima @raffytima]

My view of the collision at sea of China Coast Guard 3104 and PLA Navy 164 in the vicinity of Bajo de Masinloc in Zambales, Philippines.
Before this, the Chinese navy and coast guard ships nearly collided twice trying to outmaneuver BRP Suluan of the Philippine Coast Guard.

[说真话的徐某人 @xumouren_yt]

撞船后的056似乎失去动力，原地等待救援🛟其窘境被附近的菲律宾海岸警卫队记录了下来。

[矢板明夫 @Yaita_Akio]

今天下午我乘坐高鐵趕到台中，參加了在潭子的一埸為大罷免823投票舉辦的造勢活動。雖然下著大雨，但仍有上千人參加。隨著一個接著一個講者慷慨激昂的演講，現場的氣氛越來越熱烈，726罷免失敗的沮喪感一掃而光。

令人高興的是，曹興誠董事長作為神秘嘉賓登場，再次為大罷免站台。曹董說「我也是罷免志工的一分子，罷團走到哪裡，我就追隨到哪裡。」曹董還強調「罷免是法律賦予每一個公民的權利，不能被稱為惡罷」。最後，曹董還喊出了「建立台灣國」的口號，會場氣氛達到了最高潮。

726罷免雖然失敗了、雖然有很多值得檢討的地方，但是，聽到有「抗中保台這句口號用了10年，已經過時了」這樣的說法，我完全不認同。我認為，和10年前比起來，中國對台灣的威脅明顯增大了很多。比如說2014年，共機繞台的數量，不過幾十架次。但到了2024年，共軍繞台超過了5000次。共機越過台海中線、解放軍在台海附近頻繁舉行大規模軍事演習，也是這幾年的事情。

所以，「抗中保台」非但沒有過時了，反而是越來越重要了。

這次大罷免運動，目的並不僅僅是要罷免幾十個通共立委，更是要在全台灣展開一場「抗中保台」的啟蒙運動，讓民眾更加認識到中共的邪惡和恐怖。

啟蒙運動不可能立竿見影，需要經過長時間的努力才能夠形成社會共識。這次大罷免運動喚醒了很多民眾，也為台灣的將來培養出了非常多的人才。從這個意義上講，這次罷免運動是成功的。

至於823能夠罷免掉幾個，我認為其實已經不重要了。大家盡最大的努力、走完最後一哩路，向世界、向中國、向台灣的下一代展現出不放棄的精神，強化台灣社會的韌性，才是最重要的。

還剩兩個星期，大家一起加油！

[矢板明夫 @Yaita_Akio]

今天大罷免投票輸了。很多人都心情沉重。在日本，把選舉的結果稱為「天的聲音」。就是你不得不聽的意思。日本前首相福田赴夫在1978年選舉失敗時，曾經留下過「天的聲音，有時候也是奇怪的聲音」的名言。說句老實話，對於今天的結果，我也覺得是「天發出的奇怪的聲音」。

對國家不忠誠、和台灣最大的敵人眉來眼去；問政不專業，亂砍預算，甚至有時候自己都不知道砍掉了哪些；犯錯不反省，對自己所屬政黨職員的違法行為，不認錯不道歉——我不願意相信台灣的選民，會認為這些立委是合格的。

當然，確實也有不少值得反省的地方。

第一，可能是同溫層太厚。很多的罷免活動都沒有觸及到非同溫層的群眾。期間，我也曾多次到各地上台宣講，但是聽眾大部分都是志同道合的自己人。坐在台下的，甚至比在台上講的人更清楚為什麼要罷免。活動一場接一場，但參加者大多是老面孔，浪費了很多資源。

第二，對形勢盲目樂觀，在很多地方過於輕敵。投票的前幾天，包括我自己，很多人都認為可以罷免掉10個以上國民黨籍立委。大家討論的話題，多聚焦在罷免之後，由誰來參加補選等等。

第三，民進黨對罷團的支持不夠。雖然賴清德總統在民進黨的內部會議中曾經強調過「支持罷免」這件事。但是自始至終，民進黨對罷團的支持一直是「猶抱琵琶半遮面」。強調「罷團是罷團、民進黨是民進黨」，兩股力量最終沒有完全結合起來。看今天的結果，很多選區民進黨基本盤的票都沒有催出來。殊不知，敵對陣營早已將這場選舉看成你死我活的藍綠對決，全力動員。

講這些，並不是為了尋找犯人、推卸責任，而是希望為下一場鬥爭，吸取教訓。

這次失敗，意味著今後台灣的路，會更加艱難，中共的滲透會更嚴重。但這一段時間，罷團志工們的努力，以及我們每一個人的付出，都是守護台灣的重要里程碑，具有重要的歷史意義。向大家道一聲辛苦了，讓我們昂起頭，繼續奮力向前行。

賴清德政府受到了重大的挫折，更需要我們的支持，大家一起加油。

圖：民進黨立法院黨團總召柯建銘傍晚7點於新竹市黨部現身，向支持者深深一鞠躬。

[Vivid.🇮🇱 @VividProwess]

Hamas dresses children as terrorists and uses them as human shields, while teaching them to be future terrorists.

Where is the outrage? Any word of condemnation from the UN?

From world leaders? From any mainstream media?

Crickets.

[TheLvivJournal @LvivJournal]

"Hi mom. Going to the Ukraine. I'm Wagner )))). Xoxo"

[FK Crvena zvezda @crvenazvezdafk]

Hi @realmadrid, we may have lost, but we scored two goals. 👋

🔴⚪️ #fkcz

[(((Tendar))) @Tendar]

Many are now saying that it is too late to ramp up production for Ukraine. This is only partially true. It is correct that we squandered 2.5 years with doing almost nothing, but we have assets to react almost instantly.

What we can do right now is assembling a force which moves into Ukraine. In German we would call this "Sperrverband" (Blockade force). It does not have to be even big, at least not in the beginning, but it should comprise of almost all European countries, NATO/EU and non-NATO/non-EU alike.

The mission statement of that force is as follows:

- Securing the entire air space West of the Dnipro river and neutralizing any enemy aerial vehicles, in the same way we do it for Israel when it comes to Iran

- Securing critical infrastructure such as power plants, transmitter stations and power lanes and launching repair operations across the country

- Relieving all Ukrainian combat forces in those sectors and enabling them to be re-deployed to Ukraine's East, including their air defense assets such as Patriot batteries.

- Preventing any refugee streams from happening, by starting reconstruction programs and ensuring safety

On the political/economic side the following measures must be taken:

- Extend all sanctions against Russia on embargo level and close all loopholes in the sanction regime

- Launch mass production in munition factories across Europe by repurposing workers from struggling Western companies and sending them into the military industrial complex.

- Supply Ukraine with potent long-range missiles such as Tomahawks and TAURUS and remove all restrictions

- Extend all defense budgets of EU countries and make them mandatory to be at a level of at least 4%. Countries who miss the quote, pay with their share from the EU budget.

- Increase spending if necessary using new debts and cut social security programs down to a bare minimum which harm European economies (e.g. Bürgergeld in Germany). Deport illegals who do not contribute to the economy or are criminals.

- Energy production across Europe must be focused on efficiency for the remainder of this war and beyond. That includes nuclear technology. Renewable energy is still preferable to be used, but not at the cost of our defense capabilities.

- Inform China, India and other countries that any violation of that sanction regime will be met with swift sanctions against the companies in those countries, including the banks which facilitated that.

- Removing all Russian embassy members (spies) and leave only the ambassador and one aide who can pick up the phone. Diplomatic ties down to almost zero, but keeping an ear open.

The list is not complete, but this is just the beginning.

We are at war and it is irrelevant, whether we like it or not. We have to win this war and I would prefer to do this with Ukraine 80% still free and more than 30 million Ukrainians at our side. If we don't do this, then we might have not only to bear millions of refugees but an emboldened and strengthened Russia, which will certainly invade our lands. We cannot avoid confrontation, but we can face it to our terms and in a favorable fashion. This is our last chance.

[Iggie🚁 @Kenntnis22]

历史教训告诉我们：不要相信专制国家🙅‍♀️

[Мисливець за зорями @small10space]

-1 🇰🇵

[Chay Bowes @BowesChay]

In Bryansk, Russia

Russian special forces tracked ambushed and wiped out a team of western saboteurs working under the Ukrainian flag who infiltrated the Border.

They are US and Canadian. Tattos clearly show they are current or ex US special forces, exceptionally well equipped.

[矢板明夫 @Yaita_Akio]

今天是我52歲的生日。從一大早就收到了來自世界各地朋友們的祝福，在此一併表示感謝。有了大家的支持，我才能夠走到今天。2020年春天，我來到台灣，一轉眼已經四年半了。五月底我離開服務了22年的產經新聞。這個月中旬，計劃在台灣成立一個名叫「印太戰略智庫」的組織，繼承安倍晉三前首相的遺志、推動台灣和國際社會的互動交流。盡自己的綿薄之力，讓世界更加關注台灣。希望能夠繼續得到大家的支持。

說到生日，不得不提賴清德總統今天晚上在國慶晚會上的發言，讓很多人都很感動。

賴總統說「我們的鄰居中華人民共和國 10 月 1 日剛過完 75 歲生日。再過幾天，中華民國就要過 113 歲生日。就年紀來說，中華人民共和國是絕對不可能成為中華民國人民的祖國」。

他同時強調「如果有人要祝賀中華人民共和國生日快樂，用詞要精準，切勿用祖國兩字，對不對？」

​幾天前，中國國慶有許多台灣藝人表態，發出「祝福祖國生日快樂」之類的貼文內容，讓很多人看了很氣憤。賴總統的這段話，應該是講給那些藝人聽的。

賴總統雖然理解每個人都有各自的難言之隱，也尊重每一個國民的選擇，但還是希望大家能夠認同自己的國家、熱愛自己的國家、緊緊團結在一起、共同珍惜台灣來之不易的民主和自由。

​賴總統最近金句連發。發言不但擲地有聲，而且打蛇專打七吋，講得習近平啞巴吃黃蓮，有苦說不出。上一次講到中國應該向俄羅斯要回歷史上被侵佔走的土地，搞得中國外交部內部雞飛狗跳，至今都沒做出反駁。

這一次的113歲和75歲之說，也是讓對岸難以反駁。中國自古講究長幼有序，哪有小輩兒的天天對「長輩」吹鬍子瞪眼、要求長輩認祖歸宗的道理？