Pluto

Captive to 3 gatekeepers; Do I need to? --say it?-- now?

[Pluto @121vikash]

Even the best of minds fail to comprehend disruptive innovation.
#innovation #disruption
#BlueOcean #cryptocurrecy #Blockchain

[Pluto @121vikash]

When incremental cost of selling 1 xtra unit is just variable cost, focus on absolute cashflow generation, not margins. Marginal #ROCE is the correct
matrix as maintenance capex replaces new capex for #Reliance.
MarginalROCE=ΔEBIT/ΔCapitalEmployed
@1shankarsharma @Iamsamirarora

[Chandan Taparia, CMT, CFTe, MFTA @tapariachandan]

📊 Reliance posted a 34% profit jump last night. Great headline. But the real lesson is in what most people skipped.

RIL's Q2 scorecard:
🔹 Net profit: Rs 29,550 cr, up 33.8% YoY
🔹 Revenue: a record Rs 3.62 lakh cr, up 27.8%
🔹 But EBITDA margin: 17.2%, DOWN from 17.8% a year ago

📍 Read that again. Profit grew, but the margin shrank. The company earned more - and kept slightly less of every rupee of revenue.

💡 This is how analysts read results:
1. Growth = are revenue and profit rising?
2. Quality = are margins expanding or contracting?
3. Guidance = what is management signalling for next quarter?

A headline gives you #1. The market trades on all three.

Next time a big result drops, don't stop at the profit number. The margin line is where the story hides.

Educational only, not investment advice.
#Reliance #Q2Results #StockMarketIndia #EarningsWithETNOW

[Pluto @121vikash]

Street blindly playing #renewables, ignoring energy economics. Just like my previous thread on "Paying SaaS multiples for telecom utilities", here is a #contrarion thread on why fossil fuels r not dying anytime soon.
👇 @NikunjDalmia @AnujSinghal @1shankarsharma @Iamsamirarora 👇

[Pluto @121vikash]

(1) Stock markets r pricing energy energy stocks like #fossil fuels have no future. The pure math of the #green transition doesnt add up. Global energy demand is growing way faster than we can build green capacity. If demand outpaces suppl, fossil stays. #CoalIndia #ONGC #Energy

[Pluto @121vikash]

(5) Oil is not just for cars; It is required for plastics, fertilizers, & asphalt. One literally cannot manufacture a #windturbine blade without #petrochemicals. The death of fossil fuels is a highly exaggerated fairy tale.
#bulltrap #environment #ongc #coalindia #ntpc #bhel

[Pluto @121vikash]

(1) Stock markets r pricing energy energy stocks like #fossil fuels have no future. The pure math of the #green transition doesnt add up. Global energy demand is growing way faster than we can build green capacity. If demand outpaces suppl, fossil stays. #CoalIndia #ONGC #Energy

[Pluto @121vikash]

(4) Also, markets r ignoring the #storage nightmare. Sun sets and wind stops. To replace #baseload power, you need giant #batteryparks. If u factor in the mining and cost of those batteries the cheap solar narrative completely falls apart. #PowerGrid #EnergyTransition #renewable

[Pluto @121vikash]

Why should markets pay #SaaS multiples for #utility telecom stocks like #Jio & #Airtel?
Endgame for Indian Telecom isn't a high margin tech monopoly. It's a regulated, cost+ utility model. Think PowerGrid, not Google. Govt will eventually cap them at a fixed ROE. #jioplatforms 👇

[Pluto @121vikash]

(0) To buy more or sell #jio shares. Some argue #JioPlatform could be the closest proxy to a #newage digital play in India. Here is a counter argument on why telecom in India could be a bull trap. #Jio #Airtel
@1shankarsharma @deepakshenoy @_prashantnair @sushilkedia

[Pluto @121vikash]

@1shankarsharma @deepakshenoy @_prashantnair @sushilkedia (6) Endgame for Indian Telecom isn't a high margin tech monopoly. It's a regulated, cost+ utility model. Think PowerGrid, not Google. Regulators will eventually cap them at a fixed ROE. So, is the market paying SaaS multiples for utility stocks? #Investing #Jio #Airtel

[Pluto @121vikash]

(0) To buy more or sell #jio shares. Some argue #JioPlatform could be the closest proxy to a #newage digital play in India. Here is a counter argument on why telecom in India could be a bull trap. #Jio #Airtel
@1shankarsharma @deepakshenoy @_prashantnair @sushilkedia

[Pluto @121vikash]

@1shankarsharma @deepakshenoy @_prashantnair @sushilkedia (5) Once the capex is recovered, the "capital buffer" excuse vanishes. The marginal cost of delivering 1 extra GB of data is basically zero. At that stage, regulators won't let them milk consumers for super-normal profits. #marginalcost #pricing #jio

[Pluto @121vikash]

#eMudhra share price should trend to ZERO.
Don't dismiss this as an isolated incident. Either (1) This #eMudhra did not have its own cyber security audit or (2) the audit was performed with negilence.
This requires a complete dressing down of management.
@narendramodi @PMOIndia

[Pluto @121vikash]

GQG Partners Major Indian Holdings (₹Cr)
#AdaniPower: 16,693
#ITC: 10,087
#Adani Green: 8,132
#AdaniPorts: 7,853
#AdaniEnt: 7,694
#Adani Energy: 6,749
#GMRAirports: 3,641
#JSWSteel: 3,106
#PFC: 1908
#JSWEnergy: 1627
#Patanjali: 1138

[Pluto @121vikash]

@deepakshenoy @latha_venkatesh Here is rough #fcnr #stresstest matrix with inr 105 & 110 at different #hedge coverage and #creditcost.

[Pluto @121vikash]

What is the #FCNR unit economics model?
asset mix → NII → opex -->hedging → #creditcost → tax → capital requirement → ROE → economic profit?
At what stress levels of 1) USD/INR 2), lending rates, and 3) credit cost will it become -ve?
#rbl @deepakshenoy @latha_venkatesh

[Pluto @121vikash]

@deepakshenoy @latha_venkatesh Broadly three different levels of profitability can be roughly ascertained,
Level 1 — Gross asset/funding spread
Level 2 — After variable operating cost
Level 3 — After credit cost and tax
RBi will remember the previous sbi swap windows & #resurgentindiabond episodes.