Sh5

散歩好きです。

[Sh5 @12_Sherbone]

Mr Trump exposed his weak point a couple of weeks ago, suggesting the possible economic catastrophe due to oil shortages in four weeks.

Iran heard his speech, and determined to delay progress at least four weeks.

Mr Trump will get really cornered and make even bigger concessions - this is what Iranians are aiming at I reckon.

[Sh5 @12_Sherbone]

@JavierBlas Sure, vessels are free to transit, albeit the sporadic occasions of being targeted by Iranian drones.

Everything is fine.

[Sh5 @12_Sherbone]

Is it so? If US walks out now, it effectively hands to Iran control over Hormuz.

It would be years before any meaningful bypass infrastructure would be ready.

Is US ready for Iran to be controlling global energy and feedstock lifeline?

It would be a spectacular US defeat by Iran, in front of all the audience across the globe.

[S.V. Dáte @svdate]

Ummmm … US passports are used by US citizens traveling abroad.

Welcome to what?

[Sh5 @12_Sherbone]

@DarioCpx I am sure by now IRGC has been aware of the fact that the stock market is the holy grail for POTUS.

If I were in IRGC's position, it would make sense to attack right after the trading starts.

[JustDario @DarioCpx]

Forrest Trump is about to wake up

Markets are closed, we know what happens next

The question is whether Iran will carry this on till futures reopen on Sunday night or not

[Alex Cole @acnewsitics]

Who is he welcoming? Apparently he doesn't know the difference between a US passport and a visa to enter the country. This man is an idiot. Your passport is for travelling to other countries.

[JustDario @DarioCpx]

Here you go, another ship has been hit. I assume this type of event and the rising risk of military escalation in the region continues to be bearish for the oil price, right?

[Sh5 @12_Sherbone]

@stockdatamarket Iran is further testing US response by attacking a tanker today.

Can POTUS do something meaningful now?

Previous retaliation targeted at Iranian coastal drone sites could not prevent this renewed aggression.

Asymmetrical warfare.

[Sh5 @12_Sherbone]

Iran is testing how Mr Trump would respond to the strikes.

If he escalates, it would give Iran good excuses to attack Gulf oil infrastructure, claiming the breach of MOU by US and support given by Gulf nations to US military.

If he does not retaliate, it further shows his weak standing and Iran will escalate their demands on more concessions and cash payments from US.

Very interesting situation indeed.

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

The issue with the current MOU status quo is that Iran believes that it secured the right to manage Hormuz and the US is acting like it didn’t.

The US is encouraging an Omani reroute around Iran (first dark, now in the open)

If Iran doesn’t challenge the reroute it loses control. It tried radio warning and then went to the main tool in its toolkit: drone strike a ship as a warning.

Now the US can’t let that stand—it initially looked like they would but I guess they were just waiting for markets to close—so it counterstrikes Iranian drone, missile, and radar facilities (i.e., the stuff Iran uses to control the Strait)

Now we wait to see what Iran does in response. If it does nothing, it continues to lose its claim to control of Hormuz. If it meaningfully retaliates it risks blowing up the MOU ceasefire and testing how war-averse Trump really is.

Someone’s gotta give in.

[Sh5 @12_Sherbone]

Translation:

"I usually tell a lie. That's something I do."

[InfoGram @_InfoGram_]

This is absolute cinema 🔥

🇺🇸 Trump TODAY: "I can’t tell a lie. Not something I do."

Fun fact: Donald Trump made 55,657 false or misleading claims as president. That’s 98 lies per day.

[InfoGram @_InfoGram_]

This is absolute cinema 🔥

🇺🇸 Trump TODAY: "I can’t tell a lie. Not something I do."

Fun fact: Donald Trump made 55,657 false or misleading claims as president. That’s 98 lies per day.

[Josh Young @JoshYoung]

Overt market manipulation

[Sh5 @12_Sherbone]

I am sure governments have been intervening and manipulating the markets for many decades, but the actions this blatant, this is pitiful.

POTUS really is now cornered.

Iran can see this clearly. What would you do in their shoes now?

[Josh Young @JoshYoung]

Overt market manipulation

[Macro Alpha @MacroAlphaHQ]

I have to hand it to the crude desks—they sniffed out this political theater before the ink was even dry.

It is exceptionally rare to see institutional flow ACTUALLY outsmart the geopolitical PR machine in real time.

But if you want to know exactly how this plays out, you need to pull up the market internals from October 1973.

Everyone remembers the historic oil shock, but they conveniently forget the string of broken ceasefires that preceded it.

Back then, equities blindly rallied on every broadcasted truce while physical crude quietly built a massive, relentless bid.

The politicians were selling de-escalation on television, but the refiners were panic-hoarding physical barrels in the dark.

Fast forward to today's headline out of Israel, and we are tracking that exact historical playbook with terrifying precision.

The Lebanon deal is structurally dead, crude instantly reclaims $70, and the options chain is scrambling to re-price tail risk.

Here is the catch that should keep the $SPY bulls awake tonight.

In '73, the true market carnage didn't trigger when the shooting started—it triggered when the street realized the supply deficit was PERMANENT.

The tech-bros aggressively shorting energy volatility today are completely blind to the fact that the geopolitical buffer is gone.

They are playing mean-reversion in a global regime that is actively fracturing.

[Sh5 @12_Sherbone]

@FirstSquawk Asymmetric warfare at its best.

No wonder.

Iranian side led by fully educated PhDs playing 5D chess.

Us side led by a bully surrounded by real estate agents, yes-men and an incapable pool paint contractor.

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS EXTENT OF IRANIAN DAMAGE TO MAJOR U.S. NAVAL BASE

Newly analyzed satellite imagery shows extensive damage at the U.S. Naval Support Activity Bahrain, a key hub for American naval operations in the Middle East. (The Wall Street Journal⁠)

The imagery indicates damage to the command headquarters, multiple support buildings, and satellite communications infrastructure, with the destruction appearing more extensive than previously disclosed publicly. (The Wall Street Journal⁠)

While the U.S. military has said the attacks did not significantly disrupt operations and resulted in no fatalities at the base, the findings have renewed scrutiny over the effectiveness of regional air defenses and the vulnerability of U.S. military installations

[Sh5 @12_Sherbone]

This drawdown could have been even larger if not for the large US oil exports.

And interestingly, massive US exports have been enabled by US depleting its own SPR at a record pace.

Just to trick the general public from witnessing the humongous supply shortages.

As the US forced to curtail its exports with continued Hormuz chokehold and quickly diminishing SPR inventories, Japan will face accelerated depletion of SPR in the coming months and painful physical shortages.

[Sh5 @12_Sherbone]

@JoshYoung Of course he waited for the market close.

Even when there are escalations, he will announce big win and ceasefire before market open on Monday.

We know this drill very well, right?

The question is whether IRGC will let him get away with that on Monday.