Justin

[Justin @17juzz]

@ActAccordingly @FreightAlley Gotta look at seasonally adjusted

[Justin @17juzz]

@BickerinBrattle Thanks George, appreciate it. Let me reproduce the chart and will DM you

[Justin @17juzz]

@BickerinBrattle Is there an error in which the data for this chart is extracted ? Because the actual dts data does not square up with this chart

[Justin @17juzz]

@Beachdudeca @RoKhanna 2025 or 2024 ?

[Justin @17juzz]

@Xandman5 @DannyDayan5 Respondent comments in the past few Services reports did say services growth has been coming from data center related orders

[Justin @17juzz]

@BickerinBrattle Hi George, while i agree with your thesis, it still seems your calculation of fiscal impulse is incorrect. Nobody is able to replicate the above charts. Actual DTS still show ongoing deficits. Perhaps it could be useful if you break down how you derive this chart in your substack

[Justin @17juzz]

@BickerinBrattle Hi George, while i agree with your thesis, it still seems your calculation of fiscal impulse is incorrect. Nobody is able to replicate the above charts. Actual DTS still show ongoing deficits. Perhaps it could be useful if you break down how you derive this chart in your substack

[Justin @17juzz]

@BickerinBrattle Thanks George. Are you able to share in detail how you calculate fiscal impulse ? I tried but am unable to replicate it. I get ongoing deficits. Am a happy subscriber btw

[Justin @17juzz]

@BickerinBrattle Also, is the recent significant drop in fiscal impulse a reflection of TGA rebuild ? Meaning that fiscal impulse will be positive again now that TGA has been rebuilt ? Thanks George

[Justin @17juzz]

@BickerinBrattle Thanks George. Just to clarify, is your formula for fiscal impulse "daily withdrawals less daily deposits less daily change in TGA balance close" ? So there is no double counting by subtracting change in TGA balance again ? https://t.co/Bgb82ypgUy

[George Robertson @BickerinBrattle]

ther startling draft have to review monetary is change in Fed system bank loans, fiscal impulse is until Oct 234net smoothed daily US Treas receipts to payments then Nov 24 is DTS (Treas) daily withdrawals less daily deposits less daily change in TGA balance close.

[Justin @17juzz]

@BickerinBrattle May I ask why do you subtract daily change in TGA balance in your calculation of fiscal impulse ? Does that not result in double counting ?

[Justin @17juzz]

@BickerinBrattle I'm afraid you have calculated fiscal impulse wrongly

[Justin @17juzz]

@BickerinBrattle @GRoditiD I think you may have calculated fiscal impulse wrongly

[Justin @17juzz]

@BickerinBrattle Hi George, may i ask why do you subtract daily change in TGA balance in your calculation of fiscal impulse ? Does that not result in double counting ?

https://t.co/Bgb82ypOK6

[George Robertson @BickerinBrattle]

ther startling draft have to review monetary is change in Fed system bank loans, fiscal impulse is until Oct 234net smoothed daily US Treas receipts to payments then Nov 24 is DTS (Treas) daily withdrawals less daily deposits less daily change in TGA balance close.

[Justin @17juzz]

@BickerinBrattle Hi George, may i ask why do you also subtract daily change in TGA ? Is that not double counting ?