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Opportunist. Investor. 📊

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SINGLES > PARLAYS 🔒

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$1,000 withdraw limit is soooooo trash on @rebetapp !!! Plz do better. Especially with these outages y’all been having lately. Now I have 2K sitting for 48 hours 😐

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Same. Atleast I’m not the only one, so I’m not that worried anymore

[dade county baby💯 @nickernockerz]

@rebetapp fix your app can’t even sign in or reach support

[dade county baby💯 @nickernockerz]

@rebetapp fix your app can’t even sign in or reach support

[Ethan🫐 @SoftlyAugust]

Those Oregon unis aren’t even that great. No matter how many times they rebrand they’ll never touch the Chip Kelly era unis.

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@elonmusk May I please have a pair of SpaceX glasses with recording capabilities 😭

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@rebetapp no announcement’s about updates, yet I still can’t withdrawal my money from this platform due to having to wait til the next day. Do better

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4 mil guaranteed & you placing sports bets? Get his ass out of there

[Ross Dellenger @RossDellenger]

QB Brendan Sorsby releases a statement after completing treatment for an addiction to sports wagering and anxiety disorder: "For the first time in many years, I feel more free and no longer fully at the mercy of my addiction."

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Bro was knocked owtttttt 😭

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Yessirrrrr

[Nícah J. @nicahj_]

Bangggggggg

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+108% ✅✅ $SPY

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$SPY $720 p @ .25

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@nicahj_ & the fact Scottie had 14 at halftime… yea idk

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@nicahj_ This shit been on expert mode lately 😭😭

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@nicahj_ Twinskiiii 🤯

[George Noble @gnoble79]

This is the single most important number in global markets right now:

Paper oil settled at $90 on Friday.

Physical oil traded at $144 two weeks ago.

Let me break this down for you...

Dated Brent (the benchmark for actual barrels changing hands in the real world) hit $144.42 on April 7. That's the highest physical crude price since S&P Global Platts started publishing it in 1987. Higher than 2008.

Morgan Stanley's analysts said buyers are paying "an exceptional premium for secure, refinery-usable barrels available now."

Meanwhile, Brent futures have been trading between $84 and $99, swinging 15% in 48 hours based on whatever Iran's foreign minister says on any given morning.

The physical market is pricing a war. The paper market is pricing a peace deal.

One of them is WRONG.

And here's why the PHYSICAL market is right:

230 loaded oil tankers are trapped inside the Persian Gulf. ADNOC's CEO confirmed it.

Strait of Hormuz traffic has dropped over 90%. The ceasefire expires Wednesday and peace talks collapsed in Pakistan over the weekend.

15 to 20 million barrels per day normally move through Hormuz. The only bypass - Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and the UAE's ADCOP - together handle roughly 9 million. You cannot close a gap that large with infrastructure that doesn't exist.

But here's what REALLY caught my attention...

Containers are flowing. Oil is not.

Maersk published five operational updates in two weeks building an entirely new shipping map. Containers move from the UAE to Khor Fakkan, get trucked through Oman to Sohar and Salalah, shipped to Jeddah, and reconnected to global routes. Saudi Arabia recorded 94,000 outbound trucks to Gulf land borders in 3 weeks. India's Jawaharlal Nehru Port saw container arrivals surge over 700% from February.

34,000 ships rerouted in 4 weeks.

Anything that fits on a truck has already found a workaround.

But crude oil has no workaround.

You cannot load 15 million barrels per day onto trucks. There is no land bridge for hydrocarbons.

The pipelines are maxed. The tankers are parked.

And it doesn't stop at oil:

QatarEnergy declared force majeure on LNG contracts with China, Italy, Belgium, and South Korea after Iranian missiles hit the Ras Laffan complex in March. They've extended it through mid-June.

Japan (sourcing 70% of its Middle East crude through Hormuz) is releasing strategic reserves.

Maersk builds a new map in two weeks. QatarEnergy calls its lawyers.

That's two completely different wars being fought at the same time - one the global supply chain has already solved, and one it cannot.

And paper oil prices are trading like this distinction doesn't exist.

The EIA's base case has Brent peaking at $115 this quarter - assuming the conflict ends in April. Iran's parliament is now drafting a permanent law banning ships from "hostile" nations and imposing tolls on everyone else.

Energy stocks remain the most asymmetric trade in this market.

When paper catches up to physical (and 45 years of experience tells me it always does) the repricing will be VIOLENT.

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Precision at its finest... Check out my #SPY analysis on @TradingView: https://t.co/MfTGT3ucUL

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$SPY just broke VWAP...