Pete Stolcers | OneOption

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[Pete Stolcers | OneOption @1OptionsTrading]

I’m Pete Stolcers, I’ve spent 30+ years trading the markets, from the floor of the CBOE to running one of the largest retail options desks in the country.

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[Pete Stolcers | OneOption @1OptionsTrading]

@rahsosprout Sorry about that. Meant to remove it

[Pete Stolcers | OneOption @1OptionsTrading]

New Market High Possible In 2026 - I've been giving you the patterns to watch for that indicate strong buying. How we recovered the candle from last Thursday would indicate how aggressive buyers are. We knew it was due to forced liquidation. The bounce has been fast and furious. Buyers are aggressive. I like chip stocks here. https://t.co/LWpFuDCiZ5

[Pete Stolcers | OneOption @1OptionsTrading]

@PennyRocke63645 Sorry about that.

[Pete Stolcers | OneOption @1OptionsTrading]

The Market Bounce Is Real: Are New All-Time Highs Next? https://t.co/5eCLycYx98 via @YouTube

[Pete Stolcers | OneOption @1OptionsTrading]

Will a Hot CPI End This Market Bounce? How we get from point A to point B matters. The drop last week was fast and furious. One day moves like that are a sign of liquidation and they gain traction during the course of the day once it moves beyond statistical norms. In Sunday's video I discussed these drops and why the odds favored a bounce.

The character of that bounce was going to tell us which side was in control. If the move was weak and wimpy, the SPY would struggle for many days to recapture the 100-day MA. That would be a sign that sellers are in control and that the drop is a warning sign. It would indicate that longer-term money is in "risk off" mode. A lower high into year end would likely lead to more selling in 2027.

That's not what we got. The market gapped up yesterday and it continued to rally the entire day. Buyers expressed interest and they were aggressive. Buy the end of the day almost two-thirds of the drop from Thursday had been recovered. That is a bullish sign. I also mentioned yesterday that it was a time to take starter swing longs and not to get too aggressive because we were likely to see a nice bid check. That is typical and we are getting that this morning.

The CPI came in a little hotter than expected. If I had to bet on the outcome I would have favored a good reaction. Oil prices have been retreating and that should reduce future inflation concerns. Consequently, I believe the pullback today is simply a bid check. Is inflation a bit higher than expected? Yes. Is it outrageously high? No. Does this keep the Fed in tightening mode? Perhaps, but that to a large degree is priced in. If the market senses the rise is temporary, we will see a nice recovery today.

Asset managers want price confirmation. They want to see this pullback into yesterday's range. The bounce yesterday got them excited and some dipped their toe in the water. Now they want to see this pullback gobbled up. If we get that, they will gain confidence and buy.

A gradual wimpy recovery into the gap is OK, but it is a sign that there is still some selling pressure that needs to get worked off. That type of price action would also make a test of the all-time high less likely this year. Yes, I am projecting that far out on the price action I am seeing right now.

What do I want to see from a bullish standpoint? Stacked green candles right into the gap. That will tell me that yesterday's gains were legitimate and that buyers are excited. That type of price action would also tell me that a test of the 100-day MA is possible this week. I would add on that price action especially if the gap fills by the close. Anything less... is less bullish.

What do I not want to see from a bullish standpoint? A wimpy bounce with mixed overlapping candles to start the day that gets Chris Rocked. That would be a sign that there is still selling pressure. I would not want to see stacked red candles on the open and a steady drop. I feel this scenario is very unlikely.

Support and resistance is yesterday's range.

[Pete Stolcers | OneOption @1OptionsTrading]

Market Crash Coming or Time To Buy the Dip? https://t.co/cJHtN8SmQI via @YouTube

[Pete Stolcers | OneOption @1OptionsTrading]

@CR4342937245 @YouTube Good for you! You are going to learn so much from those. The video quality cracks me up, but the content is good and you can see how the trades played out.

[Pete Stolcers | OneOption @1OptionsTrading]

Market Sell-Off: Here's What I Know https://t.co/84ov9Mn9t2 via @YouTube

[Pete Stolcers | OneOption @1OptionsTrading]

@CR4342937245 @YouTube Thank you! Maybe the market will start to trend so we can get off of first base.

[Pete Stolcers | OneOption @1OptionsTrading]

https://t.co/wTASjXa0hT

[Pete Stolcers | OneOption @1OptionsTrading]

Year-End Market Rally: Stocks To Buy Now https://t.co/lrm0stJ5df via @YouTube

[Pete Stolcers | OneOption @1OptionsTrading]

Year End Rally Starts Today - This news cycle is ending and investors have clarity. The recent probe for support was caused by uncertainty and once the election results were known, the SPY rallied hard off of support. The market is firmly above the 100-day MA overnight.

As with every election, there will be winners and losers. A clean Democrat sweep will put pressure on AI and data center stocks. They have been vocal about regulating it. This won't be as great a threat on a national level because Trump is likely to veto legislation. However, on a local basis, data center buildouts are likely to run into red tape. Consequently, chip stocks are down overnight even when the market has been moving higher.

Earnings from semiconductor stocks have been rock solid. AMD posted huge numbers last night. There is no reason to stick your head in this noose. Let these stocks probe for support and establish a hard low. I believe a selling climax is coming, but I need to see technical proof of it. In time, investors will not be able to deny the cash flow and profits these companies are generating and there will be a short squeeze. I have a starter position on and I am not adding until SMH can close above $535. If I see that selling climax intraday, I might day trade it, but only if I see a deep drop followed by stacked consecutive green candles with no retracement. That bounce must not stall or I will exit. Until then, I wait.

Aside from chip stocks, earnings have been excellent with the average company reporting greater than 30% y/y profit growth. More than 60% of the S&P 500 has reported. Economic growth has been strong with GDP coming in at 3.4%. ISM Manufacturing hit 55.5 two days ago and ISM Services will be reported after the open today. ADP reported that private sector job growth was 86K and that was better than expected. Consensus estimates are for 65K new jobs this Friday and I believe that number could be low. Initial jobless claims have been averaging below 200K for the last month. As long as earnings and economic growth are strong, the market can shoulder higher interest rates. They've come down recently, but a rate hike in December is still likely (85%).

I have been waiting for support at the low end of the range and we have it. This is a buying opportunity and the year end rally will start. This is a good time to sell out of the money puts and put spreads. I would stay away from AI stocks. If you are going to trade tech, CRWD and MSFT have been strong.

A gap and go formation is very possible today. Those are tough to chase, but off of a D1 support level, you don't have to feel like you are chasing on a swing basis. I still suggest waiting for at least the first 30 minutes and watching the retracement or the lack thereof. The market has plenty of upside room. The key is to scale in and add to winners. Take starter positions and you will emotionally be able to buy a big move up like this and shoulder any dips. Plow in and you will regret it. You will panic and you will get flushed out on the first drop.

On a move like this sellers will try to knock the market down initially. If the opening gains hold for an hour and if the bid check is brief and shallow, it will signal that buyers are aggressive and that sellers don't have control. That is when I would start taking long swing positions. If the early gains are smacked down with nice long red candles that take back half of the overnight gains, wait. This is a sign that buyers are not that aggressive and that there is still selling pressure. I am not expecting this outcome.

Support is at the 100-day MA and resistance is at the high from Monday (right here) and the 50-day MA.

[Pete Stolcers | OneOption @1OptionsTrading]

Mid-term Election Bounce Setting Up! - Tech stocks have pulled back sharply in the last few weeks. Semiconductor stocks in particular have taken a beating even while earnings have been excellent, guidance has been raised and the tech giants ramp up AI capex. Many of these stocks are trading at attractive valuations and I believe a buy is setting up.

Apple and Palantir both sold off after posting earnings. Apple's margins were down slightly due to higher memory costs. PLTR beat expectations, but it trades at a forward P/E of 80. That valuation is going to attract profit taking in this environment.

The fear and greed index sits at and extremely bearish reading of 23 and pessimism is running high into year end. We typically see that in September and October, perhaps the elections delayed it this year.

Interest rates are rising, but so are corporate profits. So far, over 60% of the S&P 500 companies have reported and earnings are up 30.2% on average y/y. These are fantastic numbers. Economic growth has been strong with GDP rising 3.4%. Yesterday ISM Manufacturing rose to 55.5. That is an excellent reading and tomorrow ISM Services will be released along with ADP (65K expected). The jobs report will be posted Friday and 65K new jobs are expected. With initial jobless claims averaging 195K, I think the jobs report could surprise to the upside.

Some of the sell-off in semiconductors could have been due to the election. Democrats have been voicing concerns over AI and data center buildouts and of the two parties, they are likely to regulate it. The market hates uncertainty and the polls have been way off in recent years. Betting markets have been favoring a sweep by Democrats. The amount of money wagered on Kalshi and Polymarket for just the House and Senate is $431 million combined. That is a tiny amount of money and we don't know how accurate those markets are in predicting the outcome.

I have no idea of how the election is going to play out, but having a split House and Senate has typically been good for the market. That seems plausible.

This is a major window for the market. I like the earnings growth and I am looking for a year end rally and seasonal strength. I have a starter long position on and I will wait for the reaction. If the market breaches major technical support, I am not going to buy and I will be ready to take the loss. If we get a big gap up tomorrow with follow through, I will add.

Support is $750 and resistance is the 100-day MA.https://t.co/E0Ubd3bLA9

[Pete Stolcers | OneOption @1OptionsTrading]

SPY Bounces Above 100-day MA Overnight - Opportunity Knocks. Fear is running high ahead of the mid-term elections tomorrow. Mega cap tech stocks reported last week and the rection was bearish. Apple and Palantir will report after the close today and AMD will report after the close tomorrow. This week also features a heavy dose of economic news.

This reminds me of the drop we saw in July after tech giants reported. Bears piled in and days later the market surged to a new all-time high. I'm not expecting a move with that velocity, but I do expect to see support and a year end rally. To get a big move these days, the rubber band has to get stretched to one extreme or the other. Buyers and sellers have been in balance for the last six months.

Three weeks ago the market was making a new all-time high and that set the stage for this drop. Now that we've reached the other extreme we are set to snap back.

From a fundamental standpoint, interest rates are providing a headwind. However, with 3.4% GDP growth rate, activity is strong enough to support a 25 basis point increase. Corporate profits year-over-year are growing at a strong 25% rate. This is a period of seasonal strength and years of experience have taught me never to fade it.

Is there any technical evidence to support my thesis? Yes, the market is in a long-term uptrend. It has been trapped in a horizontal trading range and this also coincides with the 100-day MA. This general price level has been tested six times in recent months. I'm not going to guess that this support is going to hold, I am going to wait for confirmation. I have some starter long positions on. That small exposure allows me to control my emotions. If the bounce comes suddenly, I won't be scrambling. If the market closes above the high from Friday, I will add. If I see follow through buying, I will continue to add.

When the market was making a new all-time high we wanted to see a pullback. Now that we have one, traders are too spooked to get long. "This seemed so fast and the drop in semis was so deep." Market drops will never feel comfortable, that's the nature of the move. Are MSFT, AMZN, GOOG and META cutting back on AI capex? No, combined they plan to spend a record $1T on it next year. I am buying semiconductor stocks. They are selling the picks and shovels during a gold rush and they don't care if the speculators find gold. I'm sure that bullish sentiment got too high in this group and when that happens, weak hands get flushed out. That is what's happened the last two weeks.

I can't trade for you, I can only tell you how I am trading and I smell opportunity here. When I have technical confirmation, I plan to add. If you don't share my confidence, don't follow my lead. There will be aftershocks and you will get flushed out if you plow in. Scaling is the only way and your average cost always has to be below the current price.

From a day trading standpoint it would be typical for us to move inside of the prior range after a big decline. That is exactly what's happened overnight. The SPY is sitting right at the 100-day MA. That is also typical ahead of major news. I expect to see choppy price action around the moving average and a close near it.

Support is at the close from Friday. Resistance is the open from Friday. The 100-day runs between both price levels.https://t.co/R9I8XtORUl

[Pete Stolcers | OneOption @1OptionsTrading]

How To Trade The Post-Election Market Bounce https://t.co/8xcPm1lRJf via @YouTube

[Pete Stolcers | OneOption @1OptionsTrading]

Delayed Market Drop Trapping Traders - Seasonal weakness starts in August and runs through October. When we don't get a market drop, the year end rally is muted. As we got through that period without a drop, some traders prepared for the year end rally and took positions. Now they are taking heat.

I still believe that a year-end rally is likely, but I won't buy until I see that capitulation low. If you've kept your powder dry as we have, you are viewing this drop objectively and not emotionally.

Investors are nervous about AI paying off. They like strong balance sheets and cash flow. Mega cap tech stocks have been cash cows and now they see an investment opportunity. They are sharing that risk through secondary offerings and debt. The payoff could be hampered by a Democratic win next week. That would lead to increased regulation. Regardless of the election outcome, I feel these stocks will rally. Less so if Dems sweep and more so if the election is split. It will be difficult for Reps to hold the House.

What else changed? Global bond yields are rising and the Fed is hawkish. People are being instructed to prepare for shortages. The media is particularly gloomy and that weighs on sentiment.

Is the economy soft? No, GDP rose 3.4%. Are profits down? No, on average earnings are up 30% y/y for companies that have reported.

GOOG laid an egg. Their search revenues were down and YouTube is having monetization issues. INTC has been one step behind in chip development for the last decade. They did cite soft PC demand which does not surprise me given the price increases.

I am watching from the sidelines. We finally have movement! This is going to set up an opportunity one way or the other.

What if the move is lower? You will miss it. I'm perfectly fine with that. If the selling pressure is so strong that it can offset year end buying, there will be a bounce and I will enter on a lower high. First, we need to have a technical breakdown and we don't have that.

Asset managers have disincentive to sell into year end. They want to buy and drive those prices up. I am still watching for a capitulation low and I will be a buyer if I see it. I will add on follow through, but I doubt that will come before the mid-terms.

Support is at the 100-day MA and resistance is at the 50-day MA.https://t.co/x2kNLfmVJN

[Pete Stolcers | OneOption @1OptionsTrading]

Market Braces For Big News - Yesterday the FOMC statement was released and there was no policy change. Fed Fund Futures showed the odds of a 25 basis point December rate hike increasing by 5% to 85% after the statement. Earnings reactions from GOOG and MSFT after the close were slightly negative with GOOG selling off and MSFT rallying. The S&P 500 futures are down 20 points overnight.

This morning we got our first look at Q3 GDP and it came in at a strong 3.4%. That is slightly better than expected. Initial jobless claims came in at 194K which bodes well for the jobs report next week.

Amazon and Intel will report earnings after the close. The early takeaway has been that earnings have been good. More than a quarter of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported and the average blended EPS increase year-over-year has been 29.5% (FactSet). Those are strong results. The big concern for mega cap tech companies is capex. All of them continue to spend billions of dollars on AI and those expenses are going up, not down. I still feel this bodes well for semiconductor companies.

The mid-term elections are next week and that is creating uncertainty. With regard to AI stocks, I would only take starter positions at this level. If Democrats sweep the elections, AI regulations will increase and those stocks would react negatively. Would they crater? Not in my opinion. It would take time for the regulations to be passed and in the meantime those companies will continue to make money. I am watching for support and I am watching for an opportunity to add to the starter position. I need to see good market strength and good strength in the group before I add.

The market is trapped right in the middle of its 3-month range and it has been trapped most of the year. With all of the pending news, wait for the reactions.

Support is at the 50-day MA and resistance is the high from yesterday.https://t.co/87M1hWdmv8

[Pete Stolcers | OneOption @1OptionsTrading]

@SRWallStreetBet Yes. The MAs are more important to me. The post Fed reaction is volatile and often those moves reverse. Lots of noise.

[Pete Stolcers | OneOption @1OptionsTrading]

The Eve of Big Market News - The market tested the 50-day MA yesterday and it backed off. I'm not going to read too much into that move. The index is stuck between the 100-day and 50-day moving averages. It is sitting right above horizontal support as well.

STX will report tonight and we will see how memory stocks react. Mega cap tech companies will report Wednesday and Thursday. The AI spend is alive and well as far as I am concerned. SPCX secured $40B in financing and META did a share offering to raise $95B. Anthropic filed to go public and that will absorb some of the money that would go into other AI stocks.

The Fed is likely to keep rates the same, but any hints of a rate hike in December could weigh on the market. Fed Fund Futures are pricing in an 85% chance for a quarter point rate hike in December.

Thursday Q3 GDP will be posted and the consensus estimate is for 3.3% growth. The PCE deflator is what the Fed uses to gauge inflation.

Next week the mid-term elections will have a market impact. I believe that AI stocks could rally on a Republican sweep and drop on a Democrat sweep. AI is looking like the next battleground for both parties. If Republicans win the Senate and Democrats win the House the election might not have much of market impact.

With all of this pending news it is best to wait for the outcome and reaction. The market has been in a tight compression and it is sitting on the lower end of it. I feel this will be resolved to the upside, but I don't trade my feelings.

Watch for choppy price action ahead of major news.https://t.co/UPf1nIKXt9

[Pete Stolcers | OneOption @1OptionsTrading]

How To Trade This AI Stock Bounce! https://t.co/gDQcEMIQKc via @YouTube