Jean Paul Lagarde

Chief Investment Officer of Advisor Resource Council.

Disclosures:

[Petra Schneebauer @SchneebauerP]

It was a great privilege to meet in the past week 3 of the more than 20 🇦🇹Honorary Consuls in the 🇺🇸 & the 🇧🇸. Thank you for your dedication & your indispensable support of ⁦@AustriainUSA⁩! We & the 🇦🇹 citizens abroad can always count on you. 🙏

[Petra Schneebauer @SchneebauerP]

Liebe Austrians abroad,

vergessen Sie nicht auf die kommende 🇪🇺-Wahl.

Die Anmeldefrist zur Eintragung in die Wählerevidenz bei Ihrer jeweiligen Gemeinde läuft noch bis 25. April! #Europawahl2024 ✉️

Weitere Infos: https://t.co/UmfcnyXOGN

[Jean Paul Lagarde @1jplagarde]

That was fast. 100 basis point hike probability later this month was 26% this morning, currently 63% and has been as high as 71% today. Investors flocked to the 30-year Treasury auction sending yields lower. More inversion coming. #Fed $SPY $TLT $VIX

[Jean Paul Lagarde @1jplagarde]

June's hot CPI print will only embolden Fed to continue on its hawkish path to bring inflation down to 2%. Futures down, yields and IVOL higher, with markets giving a 26% chance of a large 100 bps hike when FOMC meets later this month. #CPI #inflation #risk #monetarypolicy $SPY

[Jean Paul Lagarde @1jplagarde]

Current 2/10 yield curve inversion of -10.7 bps approaches that of the financial crisis. We expect this to continue as long as the Fed remains committed to bringing inflation down to their 2% target by increasing their policy (short-term) rates to reduce aggregate demand.

[Jean Paul Lagarde @1jplagarde]

Heading higher. He added a 3 to it for a price print of $4.23 and 9/10. At these prices it’s probably time to dump the fraction. Front month gasoline futures were up 5.3% on the week. Maybe they should price the shawarma on a daily basis too!

[Jean Paul Lagarde @1jplagarde]

Aside from energy prices, Admission to Sporting Events registered the largest month/month increase in price (+8.3%) in today's CPI report. CPI now +6.2% YoY and +4.6% YoY (ex-food/energy) #inflation

[Jean Paul Lagarde @1jplagarde]

(2/2) We can also see highly levered companies steadily improving as the prospect for economic growth continues to improve (leverage less of an issue in an expanding economy). This is partially why high yield bonds have fared well vs IG credit. $HYG

[Jean Paul Lagarde @1jplagarde]

(1/2)Cyclical rotation trends that began late 2020 continue. Growth style factor (white line) in decline with value (cyclicals) being the preferred factor. "Size" (large caps) has lagged small caps significantly. $SPX $SPY $RTY $IWM #slowmoneyshow

[Jean Paul Lagarde @1jplagarde]

Broad selloff on high volume, nearly all S&P names down with the exception of 6. $SPX $SPY

[Jean Paul Lagarde @1jplagarde]

Philly FED Business Outlook slows and misses expectations joining a weak Empire report. Richmond, Kansas are due next week, with Dallas the following week. Philly saw declines in new orders, shipments, and LABOR #activityslowing $SPX $SPY

[Jean Paul Lagarde @1jplagarde]

Mutilated boxes, damaged (some literally destroyed) items, wrong order quantities, random refunds on items I received notifications saying they would arrive within a day. Anyone else having horrific https://t.co/xzrD7SytcC experiences? $wmt

[Jean Paul Lagarde @1jplagarde]

@FerroTV "Busiest days" sounds like they are cherry picking. With July 4th, I'd argue busiest days in July well exceed those in June normally. In 2018 July flights were 4% greater than June's but would love to see a historical comparison of busiest days.

[John P. Hussman, Ph.D. @hussmanjp]

The labor market is flying!

[Jean Paul Lagarde @1jplagarde]

@lisaabramowicz1 Might be that algos are anchoring on the "massive" 3Q growth rate which taken by itself is bullish but not seeing for forest from trees in that the growth rate is just a mirror image and "created" by the massive expected fall-off in 2Q. No historical model for algos to train on..

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

As BofA Global Research put it this morning: "Hoping that either fundamentals will improve at record speed, or that they simply don't matter is a real risk, given markets' inability to decouple from recessions in the last 90 years."

[Jean Paul Lagarde @1jplagarde]

@SteveMatthews12 @mrgopal @economics Liquidity can eventually be found at lower and lower pricing. Would be curious to know if these sales were at a generally lower price point than before. Maybe it's a sign of some sellers lowering ask price to sell in this environment.

[Jean Paul Lagarde @1jplagarde]

@TheStalwart In the raging chelada vs michelada debate, I prefer cheladas! (same w/o the tomato juice)

[Patricia Denechaud @CANPDene]

As we celebrate #MemorialDay, we pause to recognize the #soldiers whose ultimate sacrifice gave us our #freedom. Canada remembers all the #American heroes. #WeRemember #FriendsPartnersAllies

[Jean Paul Lagarde @1jplagarde]

@TheStalwart @fed_speak @conorsen Nice call on the motos. For RVs SunTrust is bullish but BoA is cautious saying many states are still limiting campground activities. This will probably change though fueling a further pickup.