Pekka Laukkanen

Market analysis. 30+ years’ experience in #steel and #engineering industries. Check the cycle: where we are and what’s ahead - from steel to #industry and #GDP.

[Pekka Laukkanen @20charts]

EU #steel market: On Jul 1, new import rules were in force: tariff-free import volume was cut to half and #tariffs doubled on the rest. By end-Sep, flat product prices are up 11% and EU total steel output in Jun-Aug up 3% y/y. Price increases ended in mid-Sep. #stål

[Pekka Laukkanen @20charts]

Shiller Price Earnings ratio – price of share vs earnings per share – is a key stock valuation measure. Higher PE means more expensive stock. August 2026 is 20th on the list of most expensive months in PE:s 155 years’ history. #stocks #investing #economy #markets #talous

[Pekka Laukkanen @20charts]

Business opportunities in outer #space ? #travel #science #investing #stocks

[Pekka Laukkanen @20charts]

EU production of weapons up 60 % since early-2021 – 4..6-fold increase in key producers’ stock prices in EU defense sector. #steel #engineering #machinery #industrie #stocks #investing

[Pekka Laukkanen @20charts]

EU car market, June: Sales growth continues. Market long term linear trend is supposed to be roughly flat. For this, growth must continue and next sales peak reach similar level as the previous. Possible in normal conditions. #steel #automotive #industrie #stocks

[Pekka Laukkanen @20charts]

EU #steel market: New import rules in force on July 1 – tariff-free import volume is cut to half and tariffs doubled on the rest. Bodes for higher prices in Q3 – but, confusingly, country-specific quotas are not available yet. #automotive #machinery #stocks #industry

[Pekka Laukkanen @20charts]

World #steel production trend down since 2021 – fall in Chinese housing construction the main cause. Global iron ore price has reacted but there is room for further fall - big ore producers are profitable at much lower prices. #industry #konjunktur #stocks #talous

[Pekka Laukkanen @20charts]

@procyoncalor Axis is linear, IP values go from 70 to 135, i.e. doubling.

[Pekka Laukkanen @20charts]

@procyoncalor Scale is linear, IP values go from lowest 70 to highest 135 - i.e. doubling.

[Pekka Laukkanen @20charts]

#Steel prices rise in anticipation of new EU import regime, in force on July 1. Tariff-free annual import quota for 3rd countries will be 18,3 mill. tons, imports exceeding this get 50% tariff vs present 25%. #automotive #machinery #industry #stocks #talous

[Pekka Laukkanen @20charts]

Thanks for attention. Read like this: Effect of the crisis on industry/economy, duration in months from highest to lowest point since the start of the crisis.

[Pekka Laukkanen @20charts]

Business cycle secrets 6: Once in decade, #crisis hits the economy. Same origins always: Middle East, Wall Street and Russia. Pandemic is a new actor. Average duration of man-made crisis is 20 months, from peak to bottom. #steel #economy #stocks #investing #talous

[Pekka Laukkanen @20charts]

Bitcoin has a small portion of money in its DNA - but where does the rest come from? #economy #investing #markets #talous

[Pekka Laukkanen @20charts]

Outlook to summer: #Machinery : flat/slightly up. #Automotive : flat. #Bearings , gears etc: bullwhip downcycle bottomed out, order intake should start to rise moderately. #Economy : Increased risk for financial market unrest. #industrie #Maschinenbau #stocks #talous

[Pekka Laukkanen @20charts]

EU 27+UK #steel market: Supply turning slowly up - but there is still some uncertainty on the import volumes. Expect 10-30$ higher flat product prices in Q2. #automotive #machinery #Wirtschaft #talous #stocks

[Pekka Laukkanen @20charts]

EU 20 car sales, Dec: Trend cycle tries up but seasonally adjusted monthly values still unstable - go up and down. Full electric share further up to 21% in Nov. #steel #automotive #industrie #Wirtschaft #talous #stocks

[Pekka Laukkanen @20charts]

World #steel production in declining trend since 2021 – China, EU and Japan main contributors. Global iron ore price has reacted but there is room for further fall - big ore producers are profitable even at much lower prices. #industry #industrie #stocks #talous

[Pekka Laukkanen @20charts]

EU production of weapons up 50 % since early-2021 – 4..6-fold increase in key producers’ stock prices. #steel #engineering #machinery #industry #industrie #stocks #investing

[Pekka Laukkanen @20charts]

Business cycle secrets 5: Supply chain #bullwhip. Many upstream suppliers are not aware of this phenomenon. It is unavoidable but you can keep track of it and prepare for the coming events. See https://t.co/KEMZ28ILR5, Ch 3. #steel #industrie #Wirtschaft #stocks

[Pekka Laukkanen @20charts]

#Bullwhip: Small change in end-user demand is amplified into big swings in supply chain. Due to human behavior and built-in synchronization problems, suppliers’ order stocks are mostly either too high or too low. See next post. #steel #industry #industrie #GDP #stocks