21

First of all, i am an advisor for myself. Second of all, most of the time I Gmgm people. ✌🏻

[21 @210295eth]

Gmgm

Say it from the heart 🔥

[MisterSpread @MisterSpread]

Is #Bitcoin math?

What if BTC is following a predictable timeline of tops, bottoms, and blow-off peaks?

Here’s a model projecting the next potential ATH and why $190,000 by 2029 is aligned with previous cycles.

Bookmark this. Let’s dive in: 🧵👇
Last cycle:
Bitcoin topped ~Oct21 > Nov22 (~378days)

Last bottom to top:
~Nov22 to Oct25 > (~1064days)

This cycle:
Bitcoin topped ~Oct25 > Oct/Nov26 (378days?)

Next bottom to top:
~Oct26 to Sept/Oct29 > (~1064days?)

If we do live in a simulation, by this model, the bottom of this bearmarket will be somewhere in Oct/Nov this year.

Drawdowns last 3 cycles:
2013-2015: -86.9%
2017-2018: -84.2%
2021-2022: 77.5

If we apply a similar softening trend (say, another ~6% drop), the 2025–2026 drawdown would likely land around:

77.5% - 6% = 71.5% & that would put $BTC around $36k-40k ATL in 2026.

We will be exiting the accumulation zone somewhere in Oct27, +350 days after the bottom, like we did from Nov22 to Oct23.

Based on this model, the next top for Bitcoin will be somewhere between $180,000 - $190,000 in Sept/Oct2029.

The conclusion and investment thesis part, for investors who understand that Bitcoin is a longterm allocation:

Potential CAGR for the next 3 years:
ATL 2026 = ~$40,000
ATH 2029 = ~$190,000

Then the potential CAGR will be ~67.8% year from 2026 till 2029, beating by far #SP500 and most of the other TradFi assets.

As all models, they work until they don't, so take this with a grain of salt, more like a potential guideline based of what happened till now.

NotaBene: the indicator you see on the chart is Ichimoku, the only indicator I've been using for the past 10 years constantly and the red+green Clouds are just potential projections of its structures.

If this helped frame your long-term thesis, hit that like & ReTweet 🫡

[MisterSpread @MisterSpread]

https://t.co/PGy9mr0fwU

[21 @210295eth]

@CalebFranzen Nice, why Bucharest?

[MisterSpread @MisterSpread]

First time calling a cycle top on $BTC – Why I think the Bear market is here

In the thread below, I will walk you through all the data that makes me say for the first time since 2023 & Bitcoin at $21,000 that there are very high chances this is the cycle top 🧵👇:

[21 @210295eth]

@OzGefen A dead man speaking

[MisterSpread @MisterSpread]

DXY multi-year bear market soon? What are the odds and implications?

Four months ago, when $DXY was near 105 area, I wrote, "How Trump’s Tariff Strategy is Weakening the Dollar." Since then, DXY tanked as expected.

Today I will analyze what's next. Bookmark this thread 🧵👇:

[21 @210295eth]

@ItsWalterEgo It is because you order decaf

[21 @210295eth]

@ecomi_ @base Omi is also a fraction of what it was🤣🤣🤣

[MisterSpread @MisterSpread]

First weekly bearish signal on SP500 since May 2022

Let’s dive into the weekly chart of the SP500 and why for the first time since October 2023 I’m flipping bearish.

Bookmark this thread so we can keep track on it going forward 👇🧵:

[Marius Grigoras @mvgrigoras]

I can understand both the #MultiversX community members pain, but also the mvx / @xLaunchpadApp teams(s) regarding the @Pell_Network launch.

Need to admit it's hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel when even a project like Pell doesn't have the right drive after a launch.

Having a launchpad business in web3 is extremely complicated and in most of the cases is not scalable.
Also discussing in 99% of the cases only with scam projects it drains your energy.

Is complicated to put your trust, energy and image, to endorse a project just because "they build a good MVP" or they raised some money from a VC. In the final, you cannot know what will be happening, you have no control around that team or around the market itself.

Also you depend a lot by the market sentiment, if the music stops you're dead.

Another big problem in web3 is the investors expectations, completely unrealistic, they want instant profits, selling instantly. It doesn't even work like this in web2 either, especially in a complicated market with insufficient liquidity.

Meantime, as a launchpad in web3, you need to understand the community, they're here only to make profit and without the community members you don't have a working launchpad. We understood this on the hard way, with lot of pain and FUD, doing different launches at @BHeroLaunchpad (good products, good teams, but most of them not profitable for the investors unfortunately).

In the same time, need to admit we're still in a very complicated bear market. Need to understand that without music (aka liquidity), there is no party.
This is the reason we stopped for now the BHero launches till we'll see the next project 100% prepared and ready to launch properly when the music is back.

I don't think there's a single day when we don't discuss among ourselves what else we could do and what solutions we could find to generate revenue. We want BHAT to perform well, but we depend 100% on eGLD and everything happening within the ecosystem as long as we remain directly listed against eGLD.
Many projects (not only us) were forced to be listed directly vs eGLD ...and now need to face the consequences.

Even though we constantly think of ways to at least cover expenses and find new revenue streams, the reality is that, indirectly, our success is tied to market conditions (and directly to eGLD's performance). I'll post these days an interesting table explaining in a deep way how much eGLD price decreasing impacted each ESDT projected launched from 2021 and till now.

From my perspective, if eGLD doesn't recover or significantly grow, we won't see significant improvement for ESDTs either. People want liquidity, volume, rising prices, and products that help them earn money. That's it. At this point, that's what web3 is all about, there's almost nothing else genuinely producing sustainable revenue or profit.

Every week, during every call with BHero, we hear horror stories. People burdened with debts, collapsed projects, founders dealing with depression - and the list continues. If the market doesn't recover (at least the major L1 ecosystems), I have no doubt 99% of projects will die. Most are effectively already closed but haven't publicly announced it yet.

Many projects that raised some funds have been waiting for "a better moment" for 2-3 years already. Now they are mentally exhausted, unable to cope with community and investor pressure, desperate for a launch or listing at any cost just to reach this milestone.

This is also why narratives like meme coins, "fair launches" (which we all know aren't really fair), and PvP emerge a lot.

I remain optimistic, I believe in tokenization, decentralization, RWAs, and blockchain technology.
Strong projects are genuinely implementing blockchain technology.

However, countless projects keep launching without bringing tangible value, and liquidity doesn't increase. It only moves around, shifting to newer narratives.

From my perspective and from discussions with larger VCs, web3 is starting to become much more mainstream. They're not throwing money at everything anymore and that will help clean up the market over time. The big VCs are waiting for the product to gain traction, to have some good metrics and only then will the discussion start to get serious.

We need more pain to get better.

[CryptoAM @CryptoAM17]

deviation bruv

[21 @210295eth]

@gorillacap Took money with 2 hands from both Rusia and UE

[21 @210295eth]

@gorillacap Bro, the president there is saying you pay for, chill

[21 @210295eth]

@Dcpcooks Hi Don again

[21 @210295eth]

@Dcpcooks Hi Don

[21 @210295eth]

@twentyone21___ Hi man

[EliZ @eliz883]

What a day 😆🤝

[21 @210295eth]

@itsmnjn When african people hang by, this will die

[DeeZe ⛳🏌️‍♂️ @DeeZe]

@farokh @billzh We are so early

[21 @210295eth]

@George1Trader @Bibel2115 Actually it sold 100k and bought 50k and for sure looking at trump mcap 100k is not a whale, maybe shrimp 🤣