23 Street

[23 Street @23StreetAM]

Healthcare Post-Market - 5/5/2026

$NBIX printed 1Q26 EPS $1.94 vs. $1.22 consensus on revenue $814.5mm vs. $768.3mm est., reaffirming FY26 Ingrezza guidance w/ shares advancing 7.4% AH. Reaffirmed guidance into a print of this magnitude means the implied 2H ramp is what the 16:30ET call has to clarify, and tardive dyskinesia coverage commentary determines whether the Street takes this as a one-print step-up or as the new FY26 floor.

$CYTK 1Q26 included $4.8mm in Myqorzo net product revenue across the first nine weeks of launch w/ FY26 guidance maintained, shares (3.1%) AH despite this morning's clean ACACIA-HCM Ph.3 in nHCM. The launch arithmetic governs the cardiac myosin re-rate from here - ACACIA's TAM expansion into nHCM only matters if early Myqorzo pull-through shows physicians switching off $BMY's Camzyos at a pace that justifies the platform multiple, and a $4.8mm 9-week start is the Street's anchor for the 2H ramp.

$VRTX printed $4.47 vs. $4.24 on revenue $2.99bn in line w/ consensus, FY26 reaffirmed - the print confirmed this morning's read, w/ lower R&D driving the EPS beat and Journavx softness explained by channel destocking + a flu-related slowdown in elective procedures. Povetacicept FDA in 3Q26 and AMKD data in early '27 remain the two non-CF gates for the multi-year re-rate.

LifeSci tools cleared as a bundle - $WAT printed $2.70 vs. $2.31 raising FY26 EPS by 10c on BD integration progress, $IDXX raised FY26 EPS by 13c, $IQV raised by 10c, $RGEN raised by 4c, $FTRE booked 1.15x w/ EPS $0.16 vs. $0.05 est. $RVTY separately signed an LOI to divest its China immunodiagnostics business (~6% of FY25 revenue), removing a structural drag the multi-line tools peers don't share. $TMDX broke the bundle the other way at (21.4%) AH on EPS $0.30 vs. $0.60 est. - the OCS adoption curve is the read, not the reaffirmed FY26 revenue line.

White House said MFN drug pricing deals will save $64.3bn in 10-yr federal outlays + a claimed $529bn in "domestic savings" if Prospective MFN extends to private insurance, w/ Public Citizen calling the framework "far from becoming reality". The read into Wednesday's $NVO pre-open print is direct - oral sema commercial pull-through commentary is the most direct tape on whether MFN pricing pressure shows up in disclosed channel data, and we'd treat the AM call as the operative read on the GLP pricing arc rather than waiting for CMS coding guidance that may not arrive before mid-summer.

Disclaimer: This post was drafted by a customized AI system operating against 23 Street's internal research, earnings notes, and annotated market data. All analytical views, annotations, and editorial decisions originate from 23 Street prior to drafting. The system does not generate independent analysis or investment conclusions. This content does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. 23 Street and/or its principals may hold positions in securities referenced. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

[23 Street @23StreetAM]

Energy Post-Market - 5/5/2026

WTI gave back 3.9% to $102.27 and Brent 4.1% to $109.87 even as Iran continued strikes on the UAE overnight and a containership took an unknown projectile in the Strait near the close - the ceasefire frame held through the headlines, and Aramco's June OSPs did the rest, w/ Arab Light to Asia cut to a $15.50 premium vs. Oman-Dubai from $19.50 (all Asia grades down $4.00/bbl) and Med + NW Europe down $2.00. We'd flagged Aramco holding pricing as the marginal-cost signal this morning; the cut went the other way, and S&P Global's April global stockdraw of ~200mm bbl alongside ~5.0mm bpd of demand destruction (sharpest since covid) explains why prices walked back even on escalation.

$OXY printed 1Q26 EPS $1.06 ex-items vs. $0.60 consensus on production 1,426 Mboed (oil beat, NGLs missed) and capex $1.50bn vs. $1.45bn est. - a beat of this magnitude on operational delivery rather than a sequential capex step-up reframes $FANG's discretionary-growth pivot from this morning. $DVN missed by $0.02 ($1.04 vs. $1.06) but generated $816mm FCF on $1.95bn cash from ops, oil production beat w/ gas + NGLs missing; w/ the $CTRA close on/around 5/7 the print itself is no longer the operative framing for the name.

Offshore drillers were the day's clear underperformer - $RIG (9.2%) and $VAL (9.4%) on a second DOJ request for the merger w/ deal close pushed to 2H26, $OIS (14.2%) as the Mideast war delayed contract awards and added cost, $TDW (2.3%) despite a Q1 beat as utilization slipped against improved dayrates. Land drillers and proppants held green - the offshore complex is repricing on deal-timing + war-driven operational drag while shorter-cycle US service holds bid into the basin's incremental-rig path $FANG flagged this morning (25-30 rigs the Permian could add by year-end).

Refiners + midstream carried the tape - $MPC +3.2% on R&M margin capture and an incremental $5bn buyback authorization confirms the AM call on US-coastal cracks, while $ET +1.5% raised '26 adj EBITDA guidance by 4.2% to $18.2-18.6bn and announced long-term gas transport into the Nexus Hubbard data center in Texas. The DC-load contract is the read the screen is missing - midstream names w/ hyperscaler-anchored take-or-pay reprice on contracted-volume visibility rather than the front-end tape, which is precisely what should command the multiple as Brent gives back the war premium.

Renewables ripped (Hydrogen ETF +6.5%, Solar +4%, $ENPH +10.7%, $SEDG +7.5%, $RUN +5.9%, $FSLR +3.7% on a Freedom Broker upgrade) while utilities lagged the S&P at +0.01% and $FTCI broke (33.2%) on a Q1 miss + Q2 guide below w/ a CEO transition. We'd lean into operational beats like $OXY's over $FANG-style discretionary-growth pivots into Wednesday's post-close E&P stack of $APA, $MUR, $SM, $MGY, $WHD, $HP, $KNTK, and $WES - the Aramco cut + 4% Brent giveback strip the macro cover the bring-it-now frame requires.

Disclaimer: This post was drafted by a customized AI system operating against 23 Street's internal research, earnings notes, and annotated market data. All analytical views, annotations, and editorial decisions originate from 23 Street prior to drafting. The system does not generate independent analysis or investment conclusions. This content does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. 23 Street and/or its principals may hold positions in securities referenced. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

[23 Street @23StreetAM]

Healthcare Pre-Market - 5/5/2026

$CYTK ACACIA-HCM Ph.3 hit dual primary endpoints (KCCQ and Maximal Exercise Performance) with consistent positive secondaries in non-obstructive HCM, conf. call 8:00ET - $BMY's Camzyos has been stuck in oHCM and aficamten's expansion into the larger nHCM pop reframes the cardiac myosin TAM from a niche obstructive franchise into an HCM platform - worth understanding why nHCM dominates the underlying patient pool and why a clean ACACIA print structurally re-rates $BMY's myosin franchise rather than just $CYTK.

$VRDN REVEAL-2 Ph.3 of elegrobart met its primary endpoint with "a highly statistically significant treatment effect" in chronic thyroid eye disease, BLA on track for 1Q27 - worth understanding why a clean chronic-TED readout reframes the teprotumumab franchise from a one-shot active-disease intervention into a recurring chronic-population tail and why the 1Q27 BLA timing now governs the catalyst stack rather than headline efficacy.

$PFE printed $0.75 vs. $0.72 consensus on revenue $14.45bn vs. $13.84bn, with COVID and Xtandi softness offset by Eliquis, Prevnar, and Ibrance, FY26 reaffirmed top and bottom - worth understanding why the 10:00ET call's pipeline commentary on gedatolisib post-VIKTORIA-1 matters more than the Q1 print itself, since the Street still discounts $PFE oncology at near zero and the multiple is gated on credit being given here. $VRTX printed $4.47 vs. $4.24 last night on lower R&D w/ Journavx pressured by channel destocking - povetacicept FDA approval into 3Q26 and AMKD data in early 2027 are the two non-CF gates that govern the multi-year re-rate.

$INSP cut FY26 by $125mm topline and $1.15/sh on CPT-code uncertainty for Inspire V, with same-morning downgrades at Piper Sandler (Neutral, PT $55 from $85) and BofA (Neutral, PT $53 from $120) - worth understanding why a single CPT-code revision can compress a med-device thesis through 2026 and why reimbursement-code overhangs land harder than category demand on dev-stage device names. HHS issued a Dear Colleague Letter Monday and Kennedy at the MAHA Mental Health Summit announced providers will be reimbursed for deprescribing SSRIs - the operative read is a structural reset on US psychiatric prescribing economics that lands first on the SSRI franchises and on legacy-anxiety pharma volumes, with detail thin until CMS issues coding guidance.

Wednesday pre-open stacks $NVO, $CVS, $UTHR, $RPRX, $MDGL, $RVMD, and $MIRM. $NVO's commentary on oral sema commercial pull-through is the cross-read into Thursday's $ARGX PDUFA and the ASCO LBA window opening 5/21. We'd lean a concentrated $BMY / $CYTK pair into the cardiac myosin re-rate over chasing the $VRDN tape, since the myosin TAM expansion is the more durable structural read while elegrobart's print is now in the price ahead of a 1Q27 BLA.

Disclaimer: This post was drafted by a customized AI system operating against 23 Street's internal research, earnings notes, and annotated market data. All analytical views, annotations, and editorial decisions originate from 23 Street prior to drafting. The system does not generate independent analysis or investment conclusions. This content does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. 23 Street and/or its principals may hold positions in securities referenced. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

[23 Street @23StreetAM]

Energy Pre-Market - 5/5/2026

$FANG printed 1Q26 EPS $4.23 vs. $3.74 consensus on production 979.4 Mboed, raised '26 production to 972+ Mboed from 926-962, lifted capex to $3.90bn from $3.75bn, and the letter to shareholders did the structural work - mgmt. is working down DUCs to bring incremental barrels above 520K bopd (+3% on prior) immediately and explicitly framed the global price signal as the catalyst to grow. The Permian's largest pure-play stepping into incremental barrels mid-cycle breaks the FCF-vs.-drilling discipline frame $XOM and $CVX set Friday and arrives the same morning Chevron's CEO flagged physical shortages around the world - worth understanding why a discretionary growth pivot from one of the most disciplined operators resets the reinvestment debate for $EOG, $OXY, $CHRD, and $APA into their tonight/tomorrow prints.

WTI gave back 2.3% to $103.96 and Brent 1.5% to $112.71 after Monday's 4.4% / 5.8% gains, but the physical-vs.-headline divergence is sharpening - Iraq is offering large discounts on May loadings that require SoH transit while UAE Upper Zakum is pulling a $20/bbl premium to OSP for SoH-independent supply, and Iran's parliament speaker today called transit through the Strait endangered after further overnight attacks on the UAE. Diamondback's letter calls out that physical premiums have already widened with regional shortages and demand destruction underway, and Ukraine drones struck another Russian refinery (Kirishi, Baltic) overnight - the cumulative refining offline is doing more durable work on the structural setup than the screen captures.

$WMB beat ($0.73 vs. $0.63) and bumped '26 growth capex to $7.0-7.6bn from $6.1-6.7bn - worth understanding why a $1bn step-up in midstream growth spend signals contracted-volume visibility into 2027 LNG corridor flows that doesn't reverse on near-term Brent. $MPC printed $1.65 vs. $0.74 with R&M carrying the beat and Midstream lagging - the US-coastal cracks read we leaned into last night holds, and the widening Brent-WTI underwrites the differential before upstream realizations show up.

$DVN / $CTRA merger closes on or around 5/7 with $DVN upgraded to Strong Buy at Raymond James. $DUK beat ($1.93 vs. $1.87) and reaffirmed '26 with 5-7% LT EPS growth through 2030, $AEP beat ($1.64 vs. $1.57) and reaffirmed - worth understanding why regulated-utility reaffirmations matter as the rate-base steady-state read on capex execution and why that frame is the counter to $TLN's catalyst-driven IPP setup AMC tonight. $AMRC slid 6.3% pre-market on a $HASI biofuels JV (Neogenyx Fuels, $1.8bn post-money EV, >20x '26 biofuels EBITDA) and a deal-driven '26 EBITDA cut - event-only into the call.

Tonight stacks API at 16:30ET, Aramco June OSPs midday, $TLN AMC, and post-close earnings from $DVN, $EOG, $OXY, $CHRD, $CRGY - the $FANG letter is the read for that E&P cluster, since the question on every Permian call after $XOM and $CVX held the discipline line Friday is whether the basin echoes the bring-it-now frame or stakes buybacks and debt paydown. We'd lean into names with explicit incremental-barrel optionality and watch Aramco to hold June pricing rather than cut, given the SoH-routed cheap-barrel arb that historically forced OSP cuts isn't operative when the diversion routes are themselves under fire.

Disclaimer: This post was drafted by a customized AI system operating against 23 Street's internal research, earnings notes, and annotated market data. All analytical views, annotations, and editorial decisions originate from 23 Street prior to drafting. The system does not generate independent analysis or investment conclusions. This content does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. 23 Street and/or its principals may hold positions in securities referenced. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

[23 Street @23StreetAM]

Energy Post-Market - 5/4/2026

Brent settled +5.8% to $114.44 and WTI +4.4% to $106.42 after UAE air defenses engaged six separate missile attacks that struck oil tanks at Fujairah, with Iran warning all UAE interests are now potential targets - the kinetic step against physical Gulf infrastructure is the close-of-day delta from the morning Jask exchange. Goldman flagged global stockpiles approaching 8-year lows and Kpler has Russian floating storage near zero, which is doing more structural work than the OPEC-7 quota add - we'd treat $100+ Brent as a held-by-tape level rather than a sell-side target.

Refining priced the close most directly: $PBF gained 5.9%, $DINO 3.8%, $VLO 1.9% as the S&P 1500 R&M Index advanced 2.10%. The crack arithmetic gets done by US Gulf and PADD-3 refiners that don't touch SoH-routed feedstock and capture the widening Brent-WTI spread on the sale side. We'd lean into US-coastal R&M over the integrateds into the next print cycle - the differential math runs through cracks before it runs through upstream realizations.

$FANG printed 1Q26 EPS $4.23 vs $3.74 consensus and production 979.4 Mboed vs 955.5, raising 2026 guidance to 972+ Mboed from 926-962 with capex up to $3.90bn from $3.75bn - mgmt. is working down DUCs to bring incremental barrels above 520K bopd. $WMB beat ($0.73 vs $0.63) and lifted 2026 growth capex to $7.0-7.6bn from $6.1-6.7bn, a step-up that signals contracted demand visibility into 2027 LNG corridor flows. $DVN / $CTRA shareholders approved the merger with close on or around 5/7.

UBS reiterated buys across the IPP cohort with PTs of $221 on $NRG, $233 on $VST, $486 on $TLN, and $388 on $CEG, framing valuations as not pricing upside beyond announced deals - a direct counter to TD Cowen's morning TP cuts on $VST and $CEG. ISO New England trimmed its 10-year demand forecast to +9% (0.9% annually) on softer electrification - a sub-1% CAGR is well below the AI-grid narrative's load-growth math and lands as a check on more aggressive utility-of-the-future framings into Tuesday's $TLN call and Wednesday's $NRG pre-open print.

Tuesday stacks Aramco June OSPs midday, API stockpile data 16:30ET, $TLN call AMC, and a post-close earnings cluster of $DVN, $EOG, $OXY, $CHRD, $CRGY. With Brent closing $114 and Russian floating storage near zero, we'd take Aramco holding pricing power over a defensive share-grab cut - the cheap-barrel arbitrage that historically forced OSP cuts isn't operative when the diversion routes are themselves under fire.

Disclaimer: This post was drafted by a customized AI system operating against 23 Street's internal research, earnings notes, and annotated market data. All analytical views, annotations, and editorial decisions originate from 23 Street prior to drafting. The system does not generate independent analysis or investment conclusions. This content does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. 23 Street and/or its principals may hold positions in securities referenced. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

[23 Street @23StreetAM]

Healthcare Post-Market - 5/4/2026

$CYTK announced an investor call tomorrow 8ET to walk through ACACIA-HCM Ph.3 topline in non-obstructive HCM, with shares advancing 2.8% AH on the announcement alone - the read for tomorrow is whether aficamten replicates oHCM-grade efficacy in the larger nHCM pop or shows the dose-titration trade-off that has historically separated nHCM from obstructive disease. $BMY Camzyos is the direct read-through given mavacamten's struggle to broaden beyond oHCM - worth understanding why nHCM is the structurally larger commercial prize and why a clean ACACIA print resets the cardiac myosin TAM from a niche oHCM franchise into a broader HCM platform.

$VRTX carries through from this morning - CF + Casgevy + suzetrigine launch is the discrete read, and we'd take any margin of safety on suzetrigine pull-through over the CF franchise update given how much of the multi-year re-rate sits in the non-CF pipeline. $BMRN's Roctavian / Voxzogo trajectory is the open question; $TVTX's filspari uptake into IgAN is the single line that matters into the print.

Healthcare services dispersion widened on the tape. $ACHC was upgraded to Strong Buy at Raymond James, PT $39 from $25 (~40% upside), citing behavioral health staffing dynamics; $AGL was cut to Underweight at JPM, PT $21 (~29% downside) on the value-based primary care setup. We'd lean $ACHC over $AGL - BH staffing carries tighter near-term visibility than VBC capitation arithmetic into the next print cycle.

SCOTUS issued a one-week stay in the mifepristone mail-order case, pausing the lower-court ruling that restricted mail delivery. We have no edge on the merits timeline; the structural read is that the Court is signaling reluctance to act before full briefing, which extends the operative window for mail-order access through the briefing cycle.

Wednesday's pre-open slate is the next gate - $PFE, $IDXX, $IQV, $BNTX, $RVTY, $RGEN, $ALKS before with $NBIX, $JAZZ, $EXEL, $TEM, and $CYTK after. $ARGX PDUFA Sunday 5/10 for Vyvgart sBLA in antibody-status-agnostic gMG is the discrete regulatory read into next week - a clean approval extends the gMG label authority and lets the sub-q Vyvgart switch story carry beyond the existing AChR-Ab+ population.

Disclaimer: This post was drafted by a customized AI system operating against 23 Street's internal research, earnings notes, and annotated market data. All analytical views, annotations, and editorial decisions originate from 23 Street prior to drafting. The system does not generate independent analysis or investment conclusions. This content does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. 23 Street and/or its principals may hold positions in securities referenced. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

[23 Street @23StreetAM]

Healthcare Pre-Market - 5/4/2026

$CELC delivered VIKTORIA-1 topline with gedatolisib (partnered w/ $PFE) hitting both the primary endpoint (PFS triplet) and secondary endpoint (PFS doublet) at stat sig in PIK3CA-mutant HR+/HER2- mBC, with details reserved for the ASCO 2026 late-breaker (5/29-6/2). The company is filing an sNDA against the existing NDA PDUFA of 7/17. HC Wainwright upgraded to Buy from Neutral and lifted PT to $165 from $94, w/ shares rallying 13.8% pre-market - worth understanding why a dual-endpoint hit in a mutant-selected mBC arm validates the triple-combo (PI3K/mTOR + CDK4/6 + ET) over backbone-only therapy and why the read pulls the $PFE oncology pipeline into tomorrow's earnings narrative as a credit the Street has been carrying at zero.

$MIRM VISTAS Ph.2b for volixibat in primary sclerosing cholangitis met primary w/ a 2.72-point reduction in cholestatic pruritis (1.64-point placebo-adjusted), shares advanced 3.4%. PSC has no approved disease-modifying tx and IBAT inhibition has been the cleanest mechanistic angle on cholestatic pruritis; the placebo-adjusted delta keeps volixibat in the pivotal-design conversation even at this stage of follow-up, with conf. call at 8:30ET the gate on whether mgmt. positions this as the lead indication or a fallback to the existing PFIC/ALGS franchise.

https://t.co/1bcpHm3szK acquired privately-held Candid Therapeutics for $2.2bn ($2bn upfront) for an early-stage BCMAxCD3 bispecific, validating the T-cell engager thesis for I&I beyond oncology. $CGEM gained 2% as the cleanest public comp; the more durable read is that an early-stage I&I TCE w/ no clinical proof of concept clearing $2bn upfront resets the strategic option value across the bispecific cohort and pulls forward partnership math for several development-stage names. We'd treat that as a structural re-rate of TCE-for-I&I rather than a Candid-specific premium.

Tuesday's earnings slate widens the gate. Tonight $VRTX, $BMRN, and $TVTX after the close; tomorrow pre $PFE, $IDXX, $WAT, $IQV, $BNTX, $RVTY, $RGEN, $RYTM, $ALKS; post $NBIX, $JAZZ, $EXEL, $TEM, $CYTK, and $TMDX. $PFE is the cross-read - mgmt. now has to credit gedatolisib explicitly in the pipeline narrative or the multiple stays gated even on a clean FY26 reaffirm, given the structural discount the Street applies to $PFE oncology heading in. $VRTX tonight is the discrete CF / Casgevy / suzetrigine launch read. Scotia published a neuroscience deep-dive today arguing sales potential is underappreciated across $ABBV, $BMY, $JNJ, $LLY, and $TEVA - the kind of thematic note that lands as setup-into-prints rather than a discrete catalyst.

The $CELC binary resolves into a forward catalyst stack: ASCO LBA in 25 days, PDUFA 7/17, and tomorrow's $PFE call as the proximal read. We'd hold concentrated $PFE-leveraged oncology exposure through tomorrow rather than chase the $CELC tape - asymmetry has compressed once the topline fact is in the price, and the $PFE multiple has more room to re-rate on the same data than the $CELC tape now does.

Disclaimer: This post was drafted by a customized AI system operating against 23 Street's internal research, earnings notes, and annotated market data. All analytical views, annotations, and editorial decisions originate from 23 Street prior to drafting. The system does not generate independent analysis or investment conclusions. This content does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. 23 Street and/or its principals may hold positions in securities referenced. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

[23 Street @23StreetAM]

Energy Pre-Market - 5/4/2026

WTI gained 3% to $104.98 and Brent 3.2% to $111.66 after Fars News reported two missiles hit a US warship near Jask Island - the US denied any attack and an Iranian official walked it back as a warning shot, but Trump Sunday formally launched "Project Freedom" committing the US Navy to escort vessels w/ no connection to either side through SoH. The contradiction is that OPEC-7 yesterday ratified the third consecutive 188K bpd quota add from June and Iraq today said exports can recover within a week once the SoH crisis ends. Barclays raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $100 from $85 on the impasse - we'd treat that as the new sell-side floor, since Russian refinery runs at 4.69mm bpd in April (weakest since 2009) and global LNG exports tracking 33mm tons in May (lowest since May-2024) are doing more work on the structural setup than missile headlines.

The frac spread count printed 174 for the week ended 5/1, +5 w/w but still ~13% below the 201 print same time last year - the activity rebound off $100+ WTI is real but not yet the V-shape the OFS tape wants. Tuesday's slate ($ET / $MPC / $MPLX / $KOS / $SUN / $VNOM pre, $DVN / $EOG / $OXY / $FANG / $CHRD / $CRGY post) tests whether the FCF-vs.-drilling discipline frame $XOM and $CVX set Friday holds as hedge books re-strike against $100+ WTI; we expect buyback-and-debt-paydown to win over reignited activity.

Nat gas advanced 0.8% to $2.802 but LNG feedgas yesterday came in at just 17.7 Bcf w/ Corpus Christi and Sabine Pass volumes lower - the export-side pull that ought to drive HH during a SoH spike isn't showing up. TTF up 2.7% to €47.02/MWh keeps the European arb wide while Bloomberg's 33mm-ton May estimate marks the lowest global LNG export print in two years - worth understanding why feedgas weakness during a global-supply panic is the more durable read for $LNG / $TRGP / $WMB / $ET than the headline crude move, since structural midstream cash flow is keyed to throughput not benchmark price.

TD Cowen previewed 1Q26 for the IPP cohort, cutting $VST PT to $230 from $253 and $CEG to $381 from $390 on softer forward curves while framing PJM reform as positive into the reliability backstop procurement. The firm sees no major guidance revisions and modest y/y earnings off capacity prices. NERC today is set to issue a rare warning on AI data center threats to grid reliability as it develops new standards - worth understanding why a NERC reliability standard for large-load interconnection resets the regulatory frame for hyperscaler-utility contracts and why it matters for $TLN / $VST / $CEG into this week's calls, where mgmt. needs to clarify how affordability and the PJM reliability backstop reshape the capacity-capture thesis already priced in.

Tuesday's Aramco June OSPs are the physical read - a cut after May's record premium signals the cartel is prepared to defend share even as OPEC-7 cooperatively raises June output. We'd lean into gas-levered E&Ps and structural midstream into Thursday's $LNG / $TRGP prints, with $TLN / $VST / $CEG still the cleanest expression of the AI-grid thesis even as TPs come in.

Disclaimer: This post was drafted by a customized AI system operating against 23 Street's internal research, earnings notes, and annotated market data. All analytical views, annotations, and editorial decisions originate from 23 Street prior to drafting. The system does not generate independent analysis or investment conclusions. This content does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. 23 Street and/or its principals may hold positions in securities referenced. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

[23 Street @23StreetAM]

Healthcare Post-Market - 5/1/2026

$CELC halted into news after TD Cowen confirmed VIKTORIA-1 mutant-type gedatolisib data (partnered w/ $PFE) will be a late-breaker at ASCO 2026 (5/29-6/2), w/ the topline release "imminent." A halt on a positive sell-side anchor of an imminent topline is the market saying the binary is now the read - worth understanding why an ASCO late-breaker slot for mutant-selected PI3K-mTOR data carries a higher bar than a generic Ph.3 disclosure, and why a clean PIK3CA-mutant PFS delta resets both $CELC and the $PFE oncology pipeline narrative the AM post sized around camizestrant alone.

$ARVN resumed +8.7% as $PFE and $ARVN confirmed "on-track" third-party commercial selection for Veppanu (vepdegestrant) - the first PROTAC ever approved, a month ahead of the 6/5 PDUFA. The partnership question that has overhung $ARVN since the 9/17/25 strategic review now compresses into the next four weeks rather than dragging through summer.

The biotech IPO window kept repricing through fresh issuance. $COAG (Hemab, blood coagulation) and $SPTX (Seaport, neuro/CNS) priced overnight at $18 each, both upsized and at high-end - $COAG opened +67.5% and $SPTX +21.1%. Healthcare IPOs have raised ~$4bn YTD incl. $3.2bn in biotech, doubling 2025's full-year total at the four-month mark; day-one returns averaging +36% across n=8 incl. $AVLN +64% yesterday is the kind of sustained tape that pulls forward private-to-public conversion timelines for the next cohort. We've been constructive on the reopening since $AVLN priced; today's prints confirm primary-issuance demand stays the floor underneath the binary-driven cohort through summer.

$AMGN delivered Q1 EPS $5.15 ex-items vs. $4.77 consensus on revenue $8.62bn vs. $8.58bn and raised FY26 EPS midpoint 10c and revenue $100mm. Repatha, Tepezza, and Uplizna beat; Prolia, Tezspire, and Enbrel missed. The print reinforces ability to grow through LOEs and validates the pipeline-funded FY raise, but the multiple stays gated on MariTide convenience-vs-pricing resolution into 2027 - we'd take the FY raise as the more durable signal than the Q1 mix and view M&A optionality as the binding NT lever if mgmt. acknowledges the growth gap on the call.

$UNH added to the GS Conviction List confirms the managed care normalization theme that the 4/30 BofA triple upgrade started building - two consecutive sessions of group-level positive sell-side resets after two quarters of MLR beats. $ABT removed from the same list is the offsetting medtech action, and the Trump withdrawal of Casey Means in favor of Dr. Saphier reduces NT vaccine-policy tail risk into summer for $MRNA, $PFE, and $BNTX without resolving the structural overhang.

The $CELC topline ahead of ASCO is the higher-conviction gate from here - a clean PIK3CA-mutant readout extends the IPO bid by validating the binary-driven cohort that funded this week's debuts and forces the Street to mark up the $PFE oncology pipeline that next week's print embeds at zero credit.

Disclaimer: This post was drafted by a customized AI system operating against 23 Street's internal research, earnings notes, and annotated market data. All analytical views, annotations, and editorial decisions originate from 23 Street prior to drafting. The system does not generate independent analysis or investment conclusions. This content does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. 23 Street and/or its principals may hold positions in securities referenced. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

[23 Street @23StreetAM]

Energy Post-Market - 5/1/2026

Crude finished the week sharply higher even after Friday's pullback - WTI +7.4% to $101.29, Brent +8.5% to $107.68, with Brent's June contract printing $118.03 mid-week before expiry. The Iran blockade is doing the work: Trump signaled willingness to maintain it for months, though Kpler still has tankers loading at Kharg Island, telling us storage-fill is a longer timeline than the rhetoric. The UAE exit from OPEC+ is the more durable story - capacity heading to 5.0mm bpd by end-2027 vs. the current ~3.5mm bpd quota means the cartel's spare-capacity narrative gets renegotiated regardless of how Hormuz resolves.

Refining was the cleanest read in the tape. $VLO gained 3.9% on a Q1 beat with refining margins +73% y/y, mgmt. maxing jet production into demand outpacing supply. $PSX +8.2%, $DINO +14.7%, $DK +15.8%, $PBF +5.0% all rallied on the same product-margin setup, with AAA regular gas at a >4-year high of $4.4392/gal (+9% w/w) - worth understanding why distillate cracks lead the group here and why it matters: jet and diesel are inelastic, China just released 500K tons into a tight global pool, and Ukrainian strikes have pushed Russian throughputs to 9-year lows. Cracks are doing catalyst work the integrateds can't.

Integrateds and oily E&Ps held the tape but lagged - $CVX +3.0%, $XOM +2.4%, $COP +1.7%, with $EXE +4.2% and $AR +2.2% on clean prints. Setting up next week's heavy E&P slate - $FANG, $DVN, $EOG, $OXY, $MPC, $MPLX, $ET, $LNG, $TRGP - the question is whether 2026 capex stays disciplined as hedge books re-strike against $100+ WTI. Our read: balance sheets are repaired, FCF math at strip is unrecognizable from six months ago, and the conversation has shifted from survival to buyback-vs.-drilling allocation.

Power lagged the broader market (S&P Utilities +0.8% vs. S&P +1.2%) but the data center thread carried selective names. $FSLR rallied 7.4% on a Q1 beat and reaffirmed 2026 EBITDA $2.6-2.8bn though guided 2Q26 EBITDA $400-500mm vs. $632.7mm consensus - worth understanding why the 47.9GW contracted backlog and H2 weighting matter more than the 2Q soft patch for utility-scale solar exposure. $BE +25% on raised guidance, $OGE signed Google for three new data centers (customer covers 100% of grid-connect costs), and $PPL is exploring nuclear with XE. The IPP softness alongside hydrogen/nuclear strength is the dispersion to watch.

Next week prints $DUK, $AEP, $VST, $LNG, $TRGP, $EOG, $OXY, $DVN, and $FANG - we'd lean into refiners and gas-levered E&Ps, with $LNG and $TRGP the call on the structural midstream. The US net-crude-exporter print this week (first ever, exports at 6.438mm bpd) is the durable backdrop the export-levered names get paid for.

Disclaimer: This post was drafted by a customized AI system operating against 23 Street's internal research, earnings notes, and annotated market data. All analytical views, annotations, and editorial decisions originate from 23 Street prior to drafting. The system does not generate independent analysis or investment conclusions. This content does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. 23 Street and/or its principals may hold positions in securities referenced. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

[23 Street @23StreetAM]

Healthcare Pre-Market - 5/1/2026

$MRK is bid pre-market on $SMMT's HARMONi-3 update - the Ph.3 study of ivonescimab in squamous NSCLC will continue blinded to its final PFS analysis after the IDMC reviewed an "early interim" PFS analysis. No early efficacy stop, no early futility stop, the trial runs to its planned final analysis in 2H26. That delays the binary most directly threatening Keytruda's frontline NSCLC franchise by at least two quarters relative to the most aggressive timing scenario - and removes one of the cleaner downside catalysts from $MRK's NTM event calendar. Worth understanding why an IDMC continuation decision compresses the Keytruda cliff narrative without requiring SMMT's own thesis to fail, and why this resets $MRK's NTM re-rate window through summer pipeline catalysts rather than the next ivonescimab readout.

$MRNA Q1 EPS ($3.40) beat consensus ($4.45) on revenue $389mm vs. $236mm - both lines materially above plan, FY26 revenue growth reaffirmed, but FY26 cash outlook lowered $1bn against a $7.5bn quarter-end balance. The 8:00ET call gate is whether the burn re-pacing reflects pipeline investment acceleration or softer HHS contract economics - the latter resets the multiple, the former extends the franchise rebuild thesis into 2H. JPM initiated $ARWR overweight w/ a $88 PT, ~20% upside - the wide $35-110 consensus PT band is itself the signal of how much HBV/HCV/CV portfolio uncertainty sits inside the Street.

SYK is the medtech outlier: Q1 EPS $2.60 ex-items missed consensus $2.98 on revenue $6.02bn vs. $6.34bn, w/ organic growth +2.4% vs. SA +8.3% - the 600bps organic shortfall resets the multiple, not the headline. FY26 EPS and revenue range reaffirmed, but the bridge from the organic miss back to the held FY range is the call gate. $RMD beat ($2.88 vs. $2.80, revenue $1.43bn vs. $1.42bn) and reiterated FY26 alongside a CFO transition. $DXCM beat ($0.56 vs. $0.47) and raised NG OM 75bps at midpoint though International beat / US miss is the variable to track into next week's $PFE/IDXX/$RGEN cluster. $ILMN beat-and-raised; $BIO cut FY26 revenue growth to (3%)-+0.5% from +0.5-1.5%.

Services delivered cleanly - $BTSG raised FY26 EBITDA $35mm and revenue $250mm at midpoints on Q1 EBITDA $190mm vs. $170mm; $EHC narrowed FY26 EPS w/ midpoint +9.5c. Trump withdrew Casey Means as Surgeon General nominee and named Dr. Nicole Saphier, a Fox News contributor whose published work tilts populist-conservative on COVID and public health - no immediate drug-pricing or PBM read-through, but real vaccine-policy uncertainty layered into $MRNA, $PFE, $BNTX through summer. $COAG (Hemab) and $SPTX (Seaport) priced post-close Thursday - keeps capital markets open for clinical-stage assets w/ binary catalysts.

$ARGX PDUFA for Vyvgart in adult gMG sits Sunday 5/10 - that's the binary that gates IgG1 autoimmune positioning into June, and the cleanest single-event read into next week's print stack: Mon brings $VRTX / $BMRN / $TVTX / $AXSM, Tue adds $PFE / $IDXX / $IQV / $BNTX. The $ARGX PDUFA is the read - $MRK's pipeline-cliff narrative compression this morning sets up which subsector carries the obesity-funded bid forward.

Disclaimer: This post was drafted by a customized AI system operating against 23 Street's internal research, earnings notes, and annotated market data. All analytical views, annotations, and editorial decisions originate from 23 Street prior to drafting. The system does not generate independent analysis or investment conclusions. This content does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. 23 Street and/or its principals may hold positions in securities referenced. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

[23 Street @23StreetAM]

Energy Pre-Market - 5/1/2026

WTI is down 0.9% to $104.17 w/ Brent up 0.7% to $111.17 after both pulled back from >4-year highs - Brent July, RBOB June, ULSD June all become front-month today. Trump vowed Thursday to maintain the Iran blockade in meetings w/ commanders on military options; Pakistan officials expect Iran to submit a new proposal by the weekend. Russian April refinery runs averaged 4.69mm bpd per Energy Aspects, the lowest monthly average since 2009 after Ukraine's fourth Tuapse strike this week. JPM puts OECD commercial inventories at risk of operational stress levels by June and operational floors by September - the back-half '26 inventory math just tightened materially.

The large-cap close-out delivered. XOM Q1 EPS $1.16 vs. $0.98 consensus on revenue $85.14bn vs. $81.13bn, Guyana gross production a record 900K bpd, Energy Products/Chemicals/Specialty all beating w/ upstream the lone miss; mgmt. laid out an updated plan through 2030. $CVX Q1 EPS $1.41 vs. $0.97 on revenue $48.61bn vs. $51.86bn, FY26 production/capex/structural cost reduction all reaffirmed - the capex discipline at $100+/bbl flagged on $COP yesterday now reads across the integrated cohort. $DINO printed the cycle's cleanest refining blowout: Q1 adj. EPS $0.69 vs. ($0.06) consensus, EBITDA $426mm vs. $247mm, throughput 656.9mbbl/d vs. 638.4mbbl/d, cash from ops $457mm vs. $15mm est. - the $VLO / $PSX capture spread thesis showing up at a Mid-Continent name forces the Street to widen which refiners earn the crack-capture re-rate. $SM closed its $950mm South Texas asset sale, executing the 3/30 divestiture. Worth understanding why mid-cycle crack capture at $100/bbl crude resets single-system refiners that were treated as the bear-case proxy yesterday.

Utility prints split. D Q1 ops EPS $0.95 vs. $0.90 on revenue $5.02bn vs. $4.43bn, FY26 reaffirmed at $3.45-3.69. $LNT $0.82 vs. $0.79, FY26 reaffirmed at $3.36-3.46. $POR missed at $0.58 vs. $0.77 on revenue $879mm vs. $953mm but reaffirmed FY26 at $3.33-3.53. $TXNM missed and pulled FY26 guidance pending the Blackstone Infrastructure transaction, w/ a $10.2bn '26-'30 capital plan. The structural news is $PPL/LG&E/KY Utilities collaborating w/ X-energy on Xe-100 SMR deployment feasibility in KY for grid reliability and large-load DC customers - the second utility-led SMR frame in the cycle and the cleanest regulated-ROE pathway leveraged to the DC load growth thesis already pricing into IPPs. Worth understanding why a regulated SMR cost-recovery framework changes the unit econs vs. a merchant IPP build and why the read-through pulls $CEG / $TLN risk back toward base-rate exposure rather than spot capacity capture.

Services prints all leaned constructive. $FET beat (EPS $0.47 vs. $0.44, EBITDA $22.9mm vs. $22.8mm) and guided 2H slightly higher w/ "signs of increased activity" language; $NPKI raised FY26 EBITDA/revenue at midpoints w/ capex stepping to $75-90mm from $45-55mm; $CVEO beat and raised the FY26 revenue midpoint to $687.5mm. $FSLR's reaffirm-and-back-half-weight covered post-close yesterday holds at 47.9 GW backlog. Trump signed a cross-border permit Thursday reviving parts of Keystone XL to move Canadian crude to Guernsey, Wyoming - reopens the WCSB-to-Cushing differential as a discrete catalyst for the integrateds and midstream.

Sunday's OPEC-7 is the structural read - whether the post-UAE bloc ratifies a quota response to the geopolitical tightening or holds Hormuz reopening as the explicit production-add conditional. Tuesday's Aramco June OSPs are the second leg, w/ pre-market ET/MPC/MPLX/SUN/VNOM and post-close $DVN/EOG/OXY/WMB sequencing the integrated capex discipline read $XOM and $CVX framed this morning.

Disclaimer: This post was drafted by a customized AI system operating against 23 Street's internal research, earnings notes, and annotated market data. All analytical views, annotations, and editorial decisions originate from 23 Street prior to drafting. The system does not generate independent analysis or investment conclusions. This content does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. 23 Street and/or its principals may hold positions in securities referenced. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

[23 Street @23StreetAM]

Energy Post-Market - 4/30/2026

WTI gave back 1.7% to $105.07 and Brent (3.4%) to $114.01 after Wednesday's four-year highs, w/ June Brent/RBOB May/ULSD May contracts all expiring into the close. State Dept is coordinating a multi-nation coalition for safe Strait passage; Putin called Trump asking the US not resume military action against Iran; Pakistan officials expect Iran to submit a new proposal by the weekend per MS Now. Vortexa puts the net crude supply loss from the Hormuz blockade at 9.0mm bpd w/ crude-at-sea back to seasonal norms and onshore inventories outside China down (49mm) over the last four weeks - the physical signal is unambiguously tightening even as the headline tape softens. DOE issued an RFP today for an emergency exchange of up to 92.5mm barrels from the SPR; EIA Feb data put total crude/product demand at 21.138mm bpd, the highest since 8/25, w/ Feb crude production averaging 13.626mm bpd (+389K bpd m/m post-January freeze offs).

The refining capture spread flagged this morning sat unevenly into the close: $VLO finished only +0.5% despite the cycle's clearest beat, while $PSX gained 3.3% on a TPH upgrade to Buy from Hold (PT $190 from $170) anchored on +$15/bbl q/q refining indicator step-up, a 12% FCF yield, and ~$1bn debt paydown plus ~$1bn buybacks - the sell-side is now monetizing the same crack capture $VLO already printed. $CVI fell 2.9% on the refining miss, $PBF gained 0.6% on better East Coast despite the Martinez pushout. $COP slipped 1.9% on the FY26 capex/production trim - capex discipline at $100+/bbl is the variable separating large-cap E&Ps from refining leverage plays right now. $AR added 0.6% on HG synergies running ahead of plan; $CNX (1.1%) on lowered FY26 FCF/EBITDA guidance.

$DTM gained 6.6% on the Q1 beat plus two announced pipeline projects (Vector 2028 Expansion at $80-100mm/6-7x build multiple plus Millennium R2R) - the second 2026 datapoint confirming midstream capex visibility extending into 2028 build cycles. $FTI slipped 1.9% on an orders miss ($2.15bn vs. $2.80bn est.) and lighter backlog ($16.47bn) even as Q1 EBITDA beat and the $10bn FY Subsea order target was reiterated - order conversion is the read into 2H. $OKE fell 3.5% on the Scotia downgrade to Sector Perform (PT $89 from $92) on weakened relative value vs. $TRGP and $KNTK, w/ the FY3 multiple expanded ~14% YTD against consensus down ~3%. $PUMP fell 5.9% despite the CAT 2.1GW framework as FY26 capex stepped to $575mm midpoint from $412mm - the BTM data center opportunity is credible, but the Street is repricing the capex profile first before contract ramp shows.

Power outperformed every sub-group, w/ S&P Utilities +2.5% and IPPs leading - $OKLO gained 11.6%, $SMR added 10.1%, $TLN +5.8%, $CEG +5.4%, $NRG +4.4% - the data center load growth thesis is now generating contract evidence faster than the bear case can absorb. $OGE added 3.1% on the Google contract to power three new data centers w/ Google funding 100% of grid connection, contracted costs, and its share of generation; $AEP +2.0% raised authorized shares 50% to 900mm to fund the capex plan - worth understanding what self-funded hyperscaler PPAs mean for utility ROE accretion and why this template (vs. traditional IRP-funded builds) sets the precedent for the next DC PPA tranche. $XEL +5.2% on the in-line print and reaffirmed guide; $SO +3.4% on the Q1 beat; $DTE +3.2% despite the miss as mgmt. flagged ~3GW in advanced hyperscale discussions; $UGI (3.9%) on the Jefferies downgrade to Hold (PT $40 from $45) on PA gas affordability spread. Hydrogen reset post-Wednesday: $PLUG (8.2%), $FCEL (4.7%). $FSLR post-close beat (EPS $3.22 vs. $3.03 consensus, EBITDA $519.8mm vs. $467.9mm), reaffirmed FY26, but Q2 EBITDA guide $400-500mm sits well below consensus $632.7mm - back-half-weighted shipment cadence is the framing, w/ contracted backlog at 47.9GW.

Sunday's OPEC-7 meeting remains the structural read - the first formal post-UAE session frames whether the group ratifies a quota response to the geopolitical tightening or makes Hormuz reopening the explicit conditional for any production add. Tomorrow's XOM and $CVX prints are the large-cap close-out; w/ the $VLO/PSX/CVI/PBF capture spread now on the public record, $XOM downstream commentary is the highest-leverage read into 2Q refining positioning.

Disclaimer: This post was drafted by a customized AI system operating against 23 Street's internal research, earnings notes, and annotated market data. All analytical views, annotations, and editorial decisions originate from 23 Street prior to drafting. The system does not generate independent analysis or investment conclusions. This content does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. 23 Street and/or its principals may hold positions in securities referenced. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

[23 Street @23StreetAM]

Healthcare Post-Market - 4/30/2026

The post-close earnings cadence carried Wednesday's themes forward. $ALGN beat Q1 (EPS $2.58 vs. $2.30 consensus, revenue $1.04bn vs. $1.02bn) and guided to the bottom of FY26 w/ Q2 revenue below midpoint - shares +3.6% AH on volume tracking better than the multiple was pricing. $ACHC beat top-to-bottom (EPS $0.37 vs. $0.26, revenue $828.8mm vs. $823.5mm, EBITDA $144.2mm vs. $132.9mm), raised FY26 EPS by 5c and EBITDA by $5mm, reaffirmed revenue, but guided Q2 below consensus - shares (4.5%) AH on the soft Q2 framing despite the FY raise. $GKOS beat the loss line ((0.18) vs. (0.28) consensus) on revenue $150.6mm vs. $137.0mm and lifted FY26 revenue $17.5mm at midpoint - shares unchanged, the Street having already absorbed the AM medtech beats (GKOS gained 15.4%, $PRCT +11.5%). $WAY beat marginally on EBITDA $135.4mm vs. $128.5mm but slipped (6.2%) AH on guidance reaffirmation rather than a raise.

$ALEC discontinued the Ph.2 PROGRESS-AD trial evaluating nivisnebart on a pre-specified IDMC futility analysis - shares (0.4%) AH at the company level, but $GSK loses a CNS pipeline optionality leg the AM post had not flagged. The single-asset failure does not reset the FY thesis on $GSK's beat-and-reaffirm at 46.5p core EPS, but it does close one of the discretionary pipeline bets helping underwrite the 2031 sales floor. $VKTX confirmed Q1 cash $603mm, VANQUISH-1 and VANQUISH-2 fully enrolled, w/ oral VK2735 Ph.3 initiation in 4Q26 ahead of VK2735 maintenance dosing data 3Q26 - the obesity pipeline calendar is now front-running the post-LLY repricing window. Worth understanding what oral GLP-1 entry timing means for the LLY/NVO franchise compounding curve and why VKTX's enrollment completion shifts the binary risk window forward by two quarters.

$AZN's dual FDA adcom outcome plus Q1 print sit as the defining event sequence of the day - camizestrant breast cancer NDA AM session and Truqap prostate cancer sNDA PM session bracket a Q1 beat (EPS $2.58 vs. $2.54, revenue $15.29bn vs. $14.95bn). Either panel result directly resets the pipeline re-rating trajectory into year-end; we have no edge on the votes themselves, but asymmetry favors $AZN holders - the multiple is not discounting dual-track approval. $AXSM's PDUFA for Auvelity in Alzheimer's Disease Agitation extends the franchise into a condition w/o currently approved pharmacological option, beyond the $700mm+ MDD run-rate already booked in FY25.

The managed care MLR normalization read confirmed this morning - HUM's narrow MLR beat at 89.4%, BofA's triple upgrade across $CNC/ELV/$MOH, and Cantor's $CNC upgrade to Overweight (PT $60 from $41) - keeps building. The cost environment is running below plan at sector level, not at one name; the second consecutive quarter of group-level MLR beats resets the multiple floor, not the individual print. $LLY's $2bn FY revenue raise on a $19.80bn Q1 print anchors the obesity bid into the close, w/ $NVO bid up in sympathy - the question stops being about Mounjaro/Zepbound trajectory and shifts to which constraint binds first: supply, payer concentration, or dose-titration plateau.

$AMGN and $SYK report AMC tonight - the $AMGN call at 16:30ET is the most immediate volatility event given obesity pipeline crossover risk into the post-close. $MRNA reports BMO Friday and tests whether COVID franchise normalization is now fully in the price ahead of summer pipeline decisions. The $AMGN call is the read - obesity pipeline framing relative to the $LLY repricing is the variable that determines whether post-close trade extends Wednesday's GLP-1 bid or compresses it.

Disclaimer: This post was drafted by a customized AI system operating against 23 Street's internal research, earnings notes, and annotated market data. All analytical views, annotations, and editorial decisions originate from 23 Street prior to drafting. The system does not generate independent analysis or investment conclusions. This content does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. 23 Street and/or its principals may hold positions in securities referenced. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

[23 Street @23StreetAM]

Healthcare Pre-Market - 4/30/2026

$LLY printed the largest beat-and-raise of the obesity cycle: Q1 EPS $8.55 vs. $6.97 consensus, revenue $19.80bn vs. $17.82bn, FY26 EPS guide raised $2/sh., revenue guide $2bn, op. margin +100bps. Mounjaro $8.66bn vs. $7.26bn consensus (+125% y/y), Zepbound $4.16bn vs. $4.04bn (+80% y/y), Jardiance $1.11bn vs. $800mm. Stock up 6% pre, $NVO bid +3% in sympathy. The print resets every covered GLP-1 model - the question stops being about Mounjaro/Zepbound franchise trajectory and shifts to how much further the segment can compound before supply, payer concentration, or dose-titration plateau become the binding constraint. The $2bn FY revenue raise against a Q1 print of this magnitude is the clearest signal that FY26 consensus had drifted ahead of mgmt. anchor on the upside, and that mgmt. is leaving room for the bull case to keep building through the year - worth understanding why a +125% y/y headline number on a single drug still doesn't fully discount into the multiple, and why oral GLP-1 entry timing is now the variable that gates the next leg of the re-rate.

$MRK Q1 ex-items EPS ($1.28) beat consensus ($1.47), revenue $16.29bn vs. $15.85bn, w/ Keytruda $8.03bn vs. $7.78bn the headline driver and Winrevair $525mm vs. $487mm continuing the +87% y/y run. The guidance revision (+2.5c EPS, +$300mm at the low end of revenue) is what's drawing the muddled +1% reaction - underwhelming relative to the size of the Q1 beat, w/ mgmt. apparently leaving optionality for the TERN acquisition charge rather than flowing through the Q1 strength. $BMY beat-and-reaffirm: EPS $1.58 vs. $1.42 consensus, revenue $11.49bn vs. $10.93bn, both lines trending to upper-end of FY26. Eliquis $4.14bn vs. $3.82bn (+16% y/y) drove the top-line beat; Opdivo $2.15bn vs. $2.29bn ((5.3%) y/y) confirms the legacy oncology drag. Stock flat. $ABBV was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA, PT $234 from $226, ahead of the print.

ALNY beat hard: Q1 EPS $1.51 vs. $0.90 consensus, revenue $1.17bn vs. $1.12bn, FY26 reiterated. VKTX confirmed VANQUISH-1 and VANQUISH-2 are fully enrolled w/ VK2735 maintenance data due 3Q26 and oral VK2735 Ph.3 obesity initiation 4Q26 - the obesity readout calendar is now front-running the post-LLY repricing. ALEC discontinued Ph.2 PROGRESS-AD evaluating nivisnebart on a pre-specified IDMC futility analysis, w/ $GSK as partner - the single-asset discontinuation is contained at ALEC, but $GSK loses a CNS optionality leg. QURE up 9.9% on a UK regulatory update in Huntington's. ALVN (Avalyn Pharma) priced an upsized $300mm IPO at $18/sh., the 8th biotech IPO of the year - capital markets remain open for clinical-stage assets w/ binary catalysts.

Today is the heaviest single-day regulatory event count in the cycle. $AZN faces dual FDA adcom - camizestrant breast cancer NDA AM (8:00-12:00ET) and Truqap prostate cancer sNDA PM (1:00-5:00ET) - and reports Q1 earnings at 9:30ET, so mgmt. pre-positions the framing live before either panel votes. $AXSM has a PDUFA today for Auvelity in Alzheimer's Disease Agitation, a label extension into a condition w/ no currently approved pharmacological option - approval is the inflection that takes the franchise beyond the $700mm+ MDD run-rate already booked in FY25. $CI Q1 beat ($7.79 vs. $7.60 consensus) w/ MLR at 79.8%, 120bps ahead of consensus, FY EPS raised 10c - the second sequential MCO print w/ MLR running below plan after $CNC's beat earlier this week. The managed care medical-cost normalization read flagged yesterday now has its second confirmation; sector-wide stabilization is the read, not name-specific execution.

CAH, LH, and THC all printed beat-and-raise. OPCH lost a quarter of its mkt. cap. on a $175mm FY26 revenue cut. GKOS (+15.4%), PRCT (+11.5%), and BAX (+5.1%) were the medtech beats of the morning. GEHC was downgraded to Neutral at Goldman, PT cut to $65 from $81 (~9% upside) - the imaging tape resets ahead of $AMGN, $SYK, RMD, DXCM, and ILMN reporting AMC tonight, w/ the $AMGN call at 16:30ET the volatility event given obesity pipeline crossover risk into the post-close.

Disclaimer: This post was drafted by a customized AI system operating against 23 Street's internal research, earnings notes, and annotated market data. All analytical views, annotations, and editorial decisions originate from 23 Street prior to drafting. The system does not generate independent analysis or investment conclusions. This content does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. 23 Street and/or its principals may hold positions in securities referenced. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

[23 Street @23StreetAM]

Energy Pre-Market - 4/30/2026

WTI is down 2.1% to $104.63 and Brent (3.4%) to $113.98, giving back a fraction of yesterday's +7.1%/+6.0% rally that took crude to four-year highs. The pullback runs through expiry mechanics - Brent June and RBOB/ULSD May contracts all roll today - rather than any structural reset. State Department is actively coordinating an international coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz per a Reuters-seen document, and Trump receives a briefing today on Iranian targets aimed at forcing nuclear talks. OPEC-7 meets Sunday in the first post-UAE session, w/ reports the group raises combined quotas only if the Strait reopens; that explicit conditional ties the next supply step to geopolitical resolution rather than to internal discipline. The physical signal keeps converging: Air France-KLM cut more flights on jet fuel shortages, diesel scarcity is spreading across Asia, and Singapore product stocks fell another 4.24mm bbl w/w to 45.9mm. EIA storage at 10:30ET is the gas read (consensus +83 Bcf vs. 5-yr avg +63 Bcf), but product, not crude, is the cross-asset signal worth running.

$VLO delivered the cycle's clearest refining beat: Q1 EPS $4.22 vs. $3.16 consensus, throughputs 2,914 mbpd vs. 2,842 est., US refining margins +73% y/y, and a 6% dividend bump. This is the read $PSX framed yesterday - refining capture at $100/bbl crude shows up in earnings without needing a guidance upgrade. The bifurcation is just as clear: $CVI missed (EPS ($1.24) vs. ($0.57)) on weak capture, and $PBF (EPS ($0.88) vs. ($0.80)) on a wider-than-expected operating loss. Capture is the variable separating the cohort - integrated/scale names compounding the crack, single-system Mid-Continent refiners not. $COP printed Q1 EPS $1.89 vs. $1.68, capex $2.95bn below the $3.11bn consensus, w/ FY26 production trimmed for Qatar exclusion and a Surmont royalty adjustment - clean cost and capex discipline at the large-cap. $AR adj. EBITDA $723mm in-line, Q2 production guided +6% q/q on the HG acquisition; $CNX revenue beat but FY26 EBITDA guidance was lowered.

$PUMP's PROPWR unit signed a strategic framework w/ Caterpillar for up to 2.1GW of power generation assets, w/ FY26 capex stepping up to $575mm midpoint from $412mm to fund the buildout - a covered OFS name now structurally levered to BTM distributed power for data centers, worth understanding why behind-the-meter generation at hyperscaler campuses is fast becoming the binding constraint and why this puts $PUMP in a different category from traditional pressure pumping. The pattern is filling in fast: $BE up 14% yesterday on Q1, $ENPH's IQ SST disclosure flagged in the AM post, and now $PUMP/Caterpillar - three execution paths converging on the same end market w/in 48 hours. $FTI Q1 EPS $0.64 beat $0.57 on higher EBITDA but orders ($2.15bn vs. $2.80bn) and backlog ($16.47bn vs. $16.84bn) both came light; guidance unchanged but order conversion is the read into 2H. $OKE was downgraded to Sector Perform at Scotia.

Utility prints split the tape: $SO Q1 EPS $1.32 beat $1.21 and reaffirmed FY26 at $4.50-4.60; $XEL in-line and reaffirmed FY26 at $4.04-4.16; $DTE missed at $1.95 vs. $2.03 but mgmt. says high-end of $7.59-7.73 achievable on RNG tax credits; $IDA beat $1.21 vs. $1.09 and reaffirmed FY26 at $6.25-6.45; $AWK in-line w/ the 7-9% EPS/dividend CAGR target maintained. $NFG cut FY26 EPS guidance to $7.45-7.75 from $7.60-8.10, the only outright reset. $OGE signed a contract w/ Google to power three new data centers - Google funds 100% of grid connection, contracted costs, and its share of generation, w/ OCC approval pending. The DC load growth thesis underlying utility capex plans keeps generating contract evidence rather than relying on it. $AEP raised authorized shares 50% to 900mm, providing equity headroom for the capex plan. $BTU was downgraded to Neutral at B. Riley on diesel cost pressure.

Sunday's OPEC-7 meeting is the structural read into next week - the first formal post-UAE session is what frames whether remaining producers ratify or reset the quota architecture. Friday's XOM and $CVX prints are the large-cap gate; we'd treat $XOM downstream commentary as the highest-leverage data point given the $VLO/CVI/$PBF capture spread now in the public record.

Disclaimer: This post was drafted by a customized AI system operating against 23 Street's internal research, earnings notes, and annotated market data. All analytical views, annotations, and editorial decisions originate from 23 Street prior to drafting. The system does not generate independent analysis or investment conclusions. This content does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. 23 Street and/or its principals may hold positions in securities referenced. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

[23 Street @23StreetAM]

Healthcare Post-Market - 4/29/2026

$ABBV led the large-cap pharma tape: 1Q26 EPS $2.65 vs. $2.59 consensus on revenue $15.00bn vs. $14.72bn, w/ Skyrizi, Rinvoq, Botox Cosmetic, and Venclexta all beating; FY26 EPS raised 12c at the midpoints - worth understanding how Skyrizi + Rinvoq sequential acceleration is confirming the Humira LOE offset and why the guidance raise anchors the 2027 revenue floor the multiple is pricing. $AZN beat across both lines (EPS $2.58 vs. $2.54, revenue $15.29bn vs. $14.95bn) and reconfirmed FY guidance ahead of Thursday's dual adcom. $GSK beat on core EPS (46.5p vs. 43.3p) and reaffirmed FY26 and 2031 outlooks; Alector's discontinuation of the PROGRESS-AD trial evaluating nivisnebart, a GSK compound, drew minimal read-through to the core franchise, shares (0.4%) in after-hours.

$HUM confirmed sector-wide managed care cost normalization: 1Q26 adj. EPS $10.31 vs. $10.20 consensus on MLR of 89.4%, 20bps below the consensus estimate of 89.6% - the second consecutive sector-level MLR beat after $CNC's 170bps outperformance yesterday, signaling the cost environment is running below plan across the group, not just one name - worth understanding what two back-to-back MLR beats mean for managed care valuation floors and why cost normalization at sector level resets the group's multiple, not just the individual name. FY26 EPS and revenue outlooks reaffirmed; mgmt. signaled "non-core asset divestitures" to fund acquisitions w/ news expected "over the next several months." BofA upgraded $CNC to Buy from Underperform (PT $60 from $34), $ELV to Buy from Neutral (PT $435 from $405), and $MOH to Buy from Underperform (PT $250) - three managed care upgrades in direct response to the confirmed cost environment.

$BIIB delivered a broad beat: EPS $3.57 vs. $2.96 consensus, revenue $2.48bn vs. $2.25bn; Zurzuvae posted $55.4mm, an outlier on the upside - worth understanding what Zurzuvae's commercial trajectory implies for spec. pharma penetration in late-onset depression and why Leqembi subq PDUFA on 5/24 is the next re-rating event. FY26 EPS lowered by $1.00 for Apellis IPR&D charges, deal closing 2Q. $REGN beat on EPS ($9.47 vs. $8.91 consensus) and revenue ($3.61bn vs. $3.48bn) but EYLEA HD posted a topline miss, partially offset by 2mg outperformance.

$VKTX confirmed VANQUISH-1 and VANQUISH-2 Ph.3 trials fully enrolled; Ph.3 oral VK2735 in obesity initiation expected 4Q26, ahead of VK2735 maintenance dosing data in 3Q26 - the oral GLP-1 competitive timeline for $NVO continues to compress toward the composition-of-matter patent expiry in 2032.

$LLY, $MRK, and $BMY all report Thursday BMO alongside $AXSM's PDUFA for Auvelity in Alzheimer's Disease Agitation. The $AZN dual FDA adcom is Thursday's defining read: camizestrant in breast cancer (8:00am-12:00pm ET) and Truqap in prostate cancer (1:00pm-5:00pm ET) - both outcomes directly reset the $AZN pipeline re-rating trajectory into year-end.

Disclaimer: This post was drafted by a customized AI system operating against 23 Street's internal research, earnings notes, and annotated market data. All analytical views, annotations, and editorial decisions originate from 23 Street prior to drafting. The system does not generate independent analysis or investment conclusions. This content does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. 23 Street and/or its principals may hold positions in securities referenced. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

[23 Street @23StreetAM]

Energy Post-Market - 4/29/2026

WTI closed up 7.0% to $106.88/bbl (June) and Brent gained 6.1% to $118.03, the latter its highest intraday level since 2022, marking the eighth straight session of gains. The DOE confirmed the tightening: crude drew (6.23mm bbl), gasoline drew (6.08mm bbl) - the largest gasoline draw on record excluding weather events - w/ distillates drawing (4.49mm bbl). Beneath the headline: net crude exports rose 1.97mm bpd w/ crude exports at a record 6.438mm bpd, making the US a net crude exporter for the first time - a structural shift in the global crude trade, not a weekly inventory print. Combined crude and product exports set a record high for the third consecutive week. The draw held at (6.23mm bbl) even after a (7.1mm bbl) SPR release on the week.

Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen Hormuz while deferring nuclear talks, per Axios at midday; US Central Command is simultaneously preparing a "short and powerful" new strike set to break the deadlock. Brent July settled at $110.44 as the June contract expires tomorrow alongside RBOB May and ULSD May. OPEC-7 meets Sunday - group sources flag a 206K bpd output increase for June, minus the UAE's 18K bpd share.

$NBR gained 11.3% on the session; US land rig count at 66, expected to rise to 69 by end of 2Q and hold through year-end - worth understanding what rig count stability through 2H26 means for OFS pricing visibility when E&P capital discipline is holding at $100+/bbl crude. $DK surged 13.7%, the session's top refiner, on QTD crack spread strength and turnaround-free throughput guidance of 293-313mbpd pointing to a materially stronger 2Q. $EXE confirmed a 20-yr SPA w/ Delfin FLNG on the call and drilled its fastest-ever Utica well; FY capex and production guidance unchanged, the 2Q capex step-up flagged as timing. $NOG is carrying two activity scenarios for FY26 tied to the Iran conflict; mgmt. flagged active interest in oil asset acquisitions at current prices.

Utilities lagged all sectors - S&P 500 Utilities Index fell (1.2%) - w/ $TLN, $VST, and $NRG among the session's steepest IPP decliners. $ENPH gave back (9.1%) despite the 1Q26 beat covered this morning; the Q2 guide is the driver - company ships less in 2Q to offset 1Q over-shipping, w/ sell-through running 10-15% below plan on tax equity challenges, 25D credit expiration, and TPO financing headwinds - worth understanding what 25D credit expiration means for residential solar demand timing and why TPO headwinds compress near-term volume even when underlying end-market demand is intact. Hydrogen ran against the tape: Global X Hydrogen gained 13.8%, $FCEL surged 37.2%, $PLUG added 12.5%.

Nat. gas fell (1.6%) to $2.647/mmbtu as June becomes the front month; TTF gained 8.6% to 47.38 w/ European storage at 32.0% of capacity, (27.3%) below the five-year average. Thursday BMO: $COP (E&P cost discipline at $100+/bbl), $VLO and $PBF (crack spread capture), $FTI. OPEC-7 Sunday.

Disclaimer: This post was drafted by a customized AI system operating against 23 Street's internal research, earnings notes, and annotated market data. All analytical views, annotations, and editorial decisions originate from 23 Street prior to drafting. The system does not generate independent analysis or investment conclusions. This content does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. 23 Street and/or its principals may hold positions in securities referenced. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

[23 Street @23StreetAM]

Healthcare Pre-Market - 4/29/2026

Health Canada approved $RDY's generic semaglutide - the first Ozempic generic clearance at any major health authority. Canada is not $NVO's primary revenue pool, but the approval establishes the first regulatory framework precedent for generic semaglutide and investors will now map the timeline against the composition-of-matter patent expiry in 2032. Cantor Fitzgerald upgraded $CNC to Overweight from Neutral, PT $60 from $41, as a direct read on yesterday's 170bps MLR beat. The managed care read-through that matters today is $HUM (call 8:00ET) - if $HUM's 1Q26 medical cost experience runs comparably below plan, the thesis shifts from $CNC-specific execution to sector-wide medical cost normalization, and the managed care group has a new floor.

The heaviest large-cap pharma session of the cycle runs today: $GSK (7:00ET), $BIIB and $HUM (8:00ET), $REGN (8:30ET), $ABBV (9:00ET), $AZN (9:30ET). Three reads to hold: $ABBV's Skyrizi + Rinvoq combined trajectory is the Humira LOE offset confirmation - combined revenue needs to show sequential acceleration to anchor the 2027 revenue floor thesis that the multiple is pricing. $BIIB's Leqembi launch progression and ex-US approval pipeline are the Alzheimer's commercial data points; ex-US has been the growth swing variable through 1Q26. $REGN's Dupixent global sales and EYLEA HD market share dynamics determine whether the current growth multiple holds after a strong prior quarter.

Thursday concentrates two major regulatory events on a single date. $AZN faces dual FDA adcom review - camizestrant NDA in breast cancer AM (8:00-12:00ET) and Truqap sNDA in prostate cancer PM (1:00-5:00ET). Two pivotal program reviews from the same company on the same calendar day is unusual; adcom outcomes in both sessions directly reset the $AZN pipeline re-rating trajectory into year-end, and an AZN earnings call at 9:30ET this morning means mgmt. will pre-position the adcom framing before the market opens. $AXSM has a PDUFA for Auvelity in Alzheimer's Disease Agitation - Auvelity exceeded $700mm in MDD revenue in FY25, and an AD Agitation label adds a commercial extension into a condition with no currently approved pharmacological option; worth understanding what FDA approval in AD Agitation means for spec. pharma penetration and why the absence of an approved comparator is the market structure that defines the pricing dynamic. $LLY, $MRK, and $BMY report BMO Thursday.

Disclaimer: This post was drafted by a customized AI system operating against 23 Street's internal research, earnings notes, and annotated market data. All analytical views, annotations, and editorial decisions originate from 23 Street prior to drafting. The system does not generate independent analysis or investment conclusions. This content does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. 23 Street and/or its principals may hold positions in securities referenced. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

[23 Street @23StreetAM]

Energy Pre-Market - 4/29/2026

WTI is up 3.2% to $103.17 and Brent +3.0% to $114.64, Brent's 8th consecutive session of gains at one-month highs - WTI has added ~9.5% since Thursday's settlement. Two macro threads are running the bid: Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended naval blockade of Iranian ports, shifting the conflict framework from acute strike risk to sustained economic attrition; and the UAE's OPEC+ exit is now operational, w/ ADNOC notifying customers to load Das and Upper Zakim crude outside the Gulf starting next month as the Strait remains closed. The departure draws limited near-term read-throughs from most desks - Russia and Kazakhstan both confirmed they're staying put - but the structural signal is durable: a 3.4mm bpd producer w/ a 5.0mm bpd capacity target by 2027 operating outside quota discipline permanently alters the long-run supply overhang math. Fujairah product stocks fell to a fresh record low of 6.982mm bbl, the fourth consecutive weekly draw, reinforcing the physical market's divergence from where the futures strip was pricing three weeks ago. API data Tuesday confirmed the tightening: crude draw (1.79mm bbl) vs. +1.9mm consensus, gasoline draw (8.47mm bbl) vs. (4.4mm) - gasoline drawing for 10 straight weeks w/ crude and product exports at record levels. DOE WPSR at 10:30ET is the first official confirmation; watch the gasoline print, not the crude.

$EXE and $NOG both beat on every line. $EXE: Q1 EPS $3.83 vs. $3.61, revenue $4.40bn vs. $3.53bn, adj. EBITDA $1.97bn vs. $1.91bn, capex $707mm vs. $741mm estimated - FY production and capex guidance reaffirmed. $NOG: EPS $0.74 vs. $0.68, adj. EBITDA $342.5mm vs. $334.9mm, production 148.3 Mboed vs. 142.2 estimated, capex $270mm vs. $281mm. Both prints confirm the E&P cohort is capturing the price environment without accelerating spend - operating leverage without capital creep is the pattern holding across the cohort. RBC upgraded $TBN to outperform from sector perform, PT $55 from $38, adding another covered upstream name to the sector re-rate. $PSX posted the session's largest downstream beat: EPS $0.49 vs. ($0.54) consensus, throughputs 2,009 mbpd vs. 1,876 mbpd estimated - the refinery utilization number at $100+ crude is the proof point for crack spread capture that doesn't require a guidance upgrade to show up in earnings. $OKE: adj. EBITDA $2.00bn vs. $1.95bn, FY EBITDA guidance maintained at $8.25bn midpoint. $NBR: adj. EBITDA $204.8mm vs. $200.9mm, FCF ($48.2mm) vs. ($93.8mm) estimated, Q2 total rigs guided 160-163 (67-68 L48) - onshore activity stable.

$EIX beat Q1 core EPS ($1.42 vs. $1.32) and reaffirmed its 5-7% core EPS CAGR through 2030 w/ two-year forward EPS guidance unchanged; $ETR delivered a slight Q1 beat ($0.86 vs. $0.84) w/ FY guidance reaffirmed at $4.25-4.45; $FE matched in-line ($0.72) and reaffirmed its $36bn capex plan through 2030, EPS CAGR guided near the top of the 6-8% range. The utility tape is consistent: regulated capital deployment plans hold independent of the commodity backdrop, and the load growth thesis underlying the capex guidance is unaffected by $100/bbl crude. $ENPH beat Q1 EPS ($0.47 vs. $0.43) and announced the IQ Solid-State Transformer (IQ SST), a distributed power platform purpose-built for AI data centers - the BTM distributed power thesis $BE validated post-close last night now has a solar/storage execution leg in the mix.

Thursday's pre-market slate - $COP, $VLO, $PBF, $FTI - is the large-cap confirmation round. $PSX's throughput print this morning sets the execution bar for refining at $100/bbl crude; $VLO and $PBF are the crack spread read-throughs. $COP's cost and production guidance frames E&P capital discipline for the large-cap cohort. Sunday's first OPEC-7 meeting without the UAE - the group's first formal session post-fracture - is the structural overhang event heading into next week.

Disclaimer: This post was drafted by a customized AI system operating against 23 Street's internal research, earnings notes, and annotated market data. All analytical views, annotations, and editorial decisions originate from 23 Street prior to drafting. The system does not generate independent analysis or investment conclusions. This content does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. 23 Street and/or its principals may hold positions in securities referenced. Past performance is not indicative of future results.