MSTR Reality Check
Emotions are running high!
People are getting manipulated by all of the engagement farming FUD and for some reason think Saylor and Strategy are on the brink of some death spiral.
As per usual, these people don't do math. They just post a red chart with a doomer sentence for clicks.
If I remember correctly, MSTR survived 2022. Actually, I don't have to remember, because I can buy the stock today.
Let us compare it to the absolute depth of the 2022 bear compared to today.
On November 21, 2022, Strategy had 130,000 BTC.
Their outstanding debt (senior claims) was equivalent to 146,735 Bitcoin.
Yes, the amount of Bitcoin that MSTR shareholders were economically exposed to was NEGATIVE. -16,735 Bitcoin.
The senior claims left zero residual for the common stock, and yet the stock never went to zero. On that same day, the stock closed at $15.72. The common equity bitcoin exposure NAV per share was -$2.33.
Today, they have 847,363 Bitcoin, with senior claims in Bitcoin at ~351,567 BTC.
Yes, in 2022 the common equity was exposed to -16,735 BTC and now it is exposed to 495,796 BTC.
2022 common equity sats/share: −14,786 sats/share
2026 common equity sats/share: 138,146 sats/share
2022 common equity NAV per share: -$2.33
2026 common equity NAV per share: +$81.69
Yes, right now the stock is trading at $87.64 vs the NAV per share of $81.69.
That means the true CEBE mNAV is 1.07x, a 7% premium to the residual left over after senior claims.
Strategy has a balance sheet built for war.
This is a cake walk compared to 2022.