this game has too many layers to it and for that reason, it is endless
u can correctly predict that an industry grows 20x and still own the wrong layer of the value chain
all moonboys start with the same question after watching their soic course -- how big can ai / robotics / whatever become?
*the more useful question imo is what becomes scarce BECAUSE it becomes big*
a technology can become 100x better and the economy doesn't become 100x more productive
businesses are chains of interdependent tasks and the chain is still limited by whatever the weakest link is
computers are the obvious example
we have absurdly more compute than we did decades ago, yet humans aren't absurdly more productive
so compute stopped being the bottleneck
the weak link moved somewhere else -- data, judgment, power, physical infrastructure, distribution, regulation, trust,
whatever the system still cannot cheaply produce
and scarcity is where the money goes
this completely changes how i want to think about emerging tech as an investor
the obvious beneficiary is often the thing becoming ABUNDANT
but abundance usually means falling unit economics over time
the more interesting beneficiary can be the boring thing sitting next to it that the entire system suddenly needs and cannot scale fast enough
ai demand can explode and the best economics might temporarily sit in power
solve power and maybe the weak link becomes cooling
solve cooling and maybe it becomes networking
solve networking and maybe it becomes deployment, integration, grid access, skilled execution or something nobody is talking about rn
the bottleneck MOVES
which means even being right about the secular theme isn't enough
so i reiterate, u can correctly predict that an industry grows 20x and still own the wrong layer of the value chain
orders prove demand
they don't prove scarcity
scarcity doesn't prove pricing power
pricing power today doesn't prove it survives once supply responds
so the real game is probably
what is the weak link today
why is it scarce
who actually controls it
can supply respond
and what becomes the NEXT weak link once this one gets fixed
the market can get the theme completely right and still buy the wrong layer
sometimes the thing changing the world becomes cheap as shit
and the boring constraint nobody cared about ends up printing the money
time to hunt, like a tiger
stay sharp
@carajendra89 And what good u r doing to the CA fraternity by sharing it on social media? They fought there and not many would know….now many will know…u r doing more harm to your fraternity then the guys who fought…lol
@SureshKBN For me it’s networking and learning…also I am a firm believer that stock ideas can come from anywhere..it doesn’t have to be just by using different screeners..I also know that most of the discussions , talks and reads are 99% junk..only the 1% will matter
@sandeepraop1 Sir Ji ek telegram ya WhatsApp chat group form kariye please…once there are like minded people there will be definitely more value addition..I agree there can be lots of noise too but with time we can always filter…it would be really worth I suppose..thanks
@IggyOnInvesting Can u please name the A tier list. I am already following S tier..all 3..
Fan of Prof.Damodaran but sometimes I feel it’s better to not know so much..simple works 90% of the times
On this Ekadashi, I am sharing Bhagavata-VaNi, an app that has the text/audio of the entire Srimad-Bhagavatam in a searchable, indexed form. Supports 10 Indic scripts with summaries at the Adhyaya level.
It is completely ad-free and free to use. Both Android and IOS - link below.
@mohak_ailani Japan & yen are keeping the world markets on their toes…& no matter what option BoJ chooses it will negatively impact the world economy. US markets will fall first & then the ripple effects across the markets