Vamos desenhar pq ta dando confusão.
Se o gasto público cair violentamente, dobradinha congresso/judiciário cortarem na carne e PIB voar, o juro cai.
Nesse caso IPCA +8% é oportunidade.
Em qualquer outro cenário não compensa o risco de se amarrar por anos a uma moeda fraca.
E se no evento de cauda (nem tão cauda assim) o Real for de lira turca ou peso argentino, seu patrimônio virou pó.
Ain... mas bc fala do Bitcoin que caiu 50%. Yep, pra mim a volatilidade funciona, se não funciona pra vc tem milhões de outras classes de ativos. Inclusive emprestar dinheiro pra governo emergente no 3o mundo.
Faça o que tu queres, só não me diga que é o "investimento com menor risco do mercado".
Os gurus de investimento na bolsa não moram no Brasil.
Quem defende o SUS tem plano de saúde.
Os influenciadores fitness morrem antes dos 40..
Quem defende o desarmamento tem segurança e mora em condomínio fechado
Brasil, o pais do estelionato intelectual!
Exactly what the financial-industrial complex is doing with Bitcoin right now.
They want to custody your Bitcoin while encouraging you to lever up and borrow against it, so they can margin-call you when they scoop it up on the cheap.
They want BlackRock, Strategy, Coinbase, or a Cantor-connected Bitcoin treasury company to hold your Bitcoin.
They want your Bitcoin wrapped in Michael Saylor, Brandon Lutnick, Adam Back, David Bailey, Jack Mallers, Steve Witkoff, Eric Trump, or Donald Trump Jr. instead of held in your own self-custody.
Understand the difference between owning Bitcoin and owning a financial product built around Bitcoin.
One moves you closer to sovereignty.
The other moves Bitcoin closer to the financial-industrial complex.
Your choice.
My final solution to the software industry: lock developers in cages with an unlimited supply of pizza and coffee, and give them each one of these equipped with 4GB of RAM, a spinning HDD, and a 10mbps internet connection.
Leave them there until software is good.
They turned the entire fucking stock market into a casino.
They will crash stocks to save bonds.
Broken clock? Fuck off.
I believe what I believe.
The house always wins.
They need to refinance $40 trillion at lower rates.
They will do that by fucking your stocks.
The oil crisis is about to explode and that will be the excuse used to blame the crash in AI, Private Credit, consumer lending, student debt, Japan economy and so on
Kevin Warsh will hold rates at first, then cut them and gear up QE to avoid a worldwide government debt crisis
Bitcoin down, gold down, silver down, stocks down, bonds down (yields up) where is the money going?
Beginning to feel like a correlation of one event.
We know what that means.
Kevin!
@ODevLibertario Caralho, me identifiquei muito, aconteceu a mesma coisa comigo. Depois que vi os modelos mudarem e os custos aumentarem deu um certo "alívio".
Mas ao mesmo tempo, após estourar a bolha (mesmo que pra cima com inflação) e a real produtividade vier, será que seremos demandados?
Just realized today I’m 8 years sober.
I’d like to pretend it was some great act of courage or a hero’s journey. It wasn’t.
The truth is I poisoned myself for years looking for happiness outside of myself. I woke up in an emergency room after nearly killing myself. Then I sat in detox under observation and made a decision to become a participant in my own life.
Sometimes we need brutal wake-up calls. Mine was self-inflicted, and I course corrected.
Looking back, I think most of us are doing the best we can with the information we have at the time. We get caught in patterns. Habits. Environments. Relationships.
Maybe the trick is getting caught in patterns that align with what you believe, what you want, and what you know you need to do.
The people around us are part of that pattern.
I surrounded myself with people who wanted me at my worst. They are no longer part of my life.
Quitting alcohol was straightforward. Stop putting the glass to your mouth. Walking away from certain people was much harder.
In the end, though, our lives are our responsibility. They become the sum of our choices, repeated over time.
Eight years later, I’m grateful I made a different choice.