いまけん

4億円を運用する個人投資家/FI達成
教育→国際開発(海外赴任)→金の長期投資をメインに2017年資産9桁到達
「示唆に富むチャート📈」×「経済トレンド把握」を発信
ラテンアメリカ、サルサ、スペイン語好き😊
ゴールド投資の具体的戦略 & 海外生活の爆笑エピソードをnoteで公開中

[いまけん @3580ken]

現在のPF
金→52% 　
株式→14%　オルカン、株数銘柄　(勉強中)
MMF、国債、社債→4% 　(試験的運用)　
国内銀行→ドル7%、円5%
国外銀行→ドル9%、現地通貨9%

金の長期保有で資産100％増😊　
上記資産配分の根拠　↓
https://t.co/iD28FlfrQq

[いまけん @3580ken]

金相場の歴史的ボラティリティ

・1970年代の金相場は26%〜50%の下落を3度経験しながら上昇。
・過去の価格変動データが示す通り、長期的な相場形成の過程では激しいボラティリティと市場の淘汰が伴う傾向。

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

Gold might be plunging... but the bull market isn't over.

During the 70s, gold went up 24x... but most of us wouldn't have been able to stomach the volatility.

Along the way, Gold suffered 3 major pullbacks ranging from 26% to 50%...

The real move only began after all the weak hands were shaken out.

I expect history to repeat...

But the ride will be anything but smooth.

[いまけん @3580ken]

米国10年国債利回りが5%に急騰

[Barchart @Barchart]

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield rips to 5% 🚨 🚨 Here we go again!!

[いまけん @3580ken]

巨大テックの巨額簿外債務

・主要7社の簿外債務は合算で4.49兆ドル
・表面借入金7,580億ドルの約6倍規模に拡大
・AIインフラ投資に伴う将来負担が急増

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The scale of Big Tech's AI future financial obligations is extraordinary:

Alphabet, $GOOGL, Meta, $META, Anthropic, Microsoft, $MSFT, Amazon, $AMZN, Oracle, $ORCL, and Nvidia, $NVDA, have disclosed a combined $4.49 trillion in off-balance-sheet obligations.

These include future lease payments that have not yet commenced, data-center commitments, equipment purchases, and other contractual obligations.

Alphabet accounts for the largest amount, at $1.08 trillion, followed by Anthropic, at $865 billion, and Meta, at $810 billion.

By comparison, their combined on-balance-sheet obligations total just $758 billion, consisting of long-term debt and existing lease liabilities.

This means off-balance-sheet commitments are nearly 6 times larger than their on-balance-sheet obligations.

In total, these 7 tech companies face ~$5.25 trillion in combined financial obligations.

The AI infrastructure race is facing enormous future financial commitments.

[いまけん @3580ken]

米データセンター建設投資が過去最高を更新

・データセンター建設支出が前年比90%増の965億ドルと過去最高を更新
・一般オフィス建設は低迷し、両者の格差は過去最大の505億ドルに到達
・全体全体の建設支出は月間1.9%減となったが、AIインフラ特需が際立つ展開

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: US data center construction spending jumped +90% YoY in September, to a record annualized rate of $96.5 billion.

This also marks the largest YoY increase in 10 years.

This figure is now risen more than +60% YoY for 4 consecutive months.

Since the start of 2024, data center construction spending has nearly quadrupled.

Meanwhile, general office construction spending fell -8% YoY in September, to $46.0 billion, near its lowest level since January 2016.

This brought the gap between data center and general office construction spending to a record $50.5 billion.

Overall, US construction spending fell -1.9% MoM in September, its biggest monthly decline since April 2020.

The AI infrastructure buildout is transforming the US economy.

[いまけん @3580ken]

通貨膨張と金価格の歴史的乖離

・金価格下落の一方で通貨供給量が再拡大
・中銀の金（ゴールド）買い入れは継続
・巨額の国債・財政赤字と地政学リスクが定着
・政策当局は国債保護のため通貨膨張を選択

ファンダメンタルズの構造的要因は不変ですね。

[いまけん @3580ken]

米住宅ローン需要が歴史的底値圏へ

・住宅購入ローン申請指数が前週比2%減の131ポイント
・1995年以来6番目の低水準で年初比32%減少
・コロナ前（2019年）の水準を50%下回る
・30年固定金利は7.18%と7週連続で7%台超えを記録

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

US mortgage demand is down to historic lows:

US purchase mortgage applications index fell -2% last week, to 131 points, its 2nd-lowest since January 2025.

This also marks the 6th-lowest weekly reading since 1995, down -32% since January.

As a result, US mortgage applications are now -50% below the pre-pandemic levels seen in 2019.

This comes as the 30Y fixed mortgage rate has risen +120 basis points since February, to 7.18%, near its highest since November 2023.

Rates have now been above 7.0% for 7 consecutive weeks.

The US housing market is frozen.

[いまけん @3580ken]

金は2026年1月の最高値から約25%下落しました。
それでも中央銀行は、ロシア侵攻後、侵攻前の約2倍のペースで金を買い続けています。
「In Gold We Trust 2026」のチャートブックを、10分で読めるようnoteに整理しました。
今の下落をどう捉えるか、データで見てみませんか。
https://t.co/btupyPWgqT

[いまけん @3580ken]

データセンター拡大に潜む規制リスク

・開発計画の約45%が規制強化を掲げる知事の州に集中
・上位10州で全米の計画容量の70%以上を占める集中構造
・設備投資は過去最大級の成長要因も、失速なら景気後退懸念

AI投資サイクルの鈍化とマクロ経済への影響が注目されます。

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

US data-center expansion faces growing regulatory risks:

~45% of planned US data-center capacity is located in states where newly elected Democratic leaders campaigned on tighter development restrictions.

Texas has the largest pipeline at roughly 47 GW, followed by Virginia at 33 GW and Georgia at 26 GW, while only 10 states account for over 70% of national capacity.

Over the last few years, data-center investment has become a major engine of US growth, with spending on information-processing equipment and software delivering its largest economic contribution on record, exceeding even the Dot-Com Era boom.

However, tighter restrictions could delay projects and curb excessive investment, potentially reducing the risk of an AI spending bubble.

At the same time, a sharp slowdown could remove a key source of economic growth and reverse the wealth gains supporting consumer spending.

A slowdown in the AI investment cycle could push the US economy into a recession.

[いまけん @3580ken]

@buffett_taro AIバブルの行方は...

ITバブル崩壊に学ぶ市場の警戒シグナル
・バブル崩壊直前にS&P500は12%上昇し過去最高値を回復
・底打ちまでに20%規模の騙し上げ（一時的反発）が3回発生
・最高値奪還まで約14年を要した歴史的データが存在

[いまけん @3580ken]

金価格が下落しても、欧州の金ETFには18週連続で資金が入っています。
流入額は27億ドルで、4カ月連続です。
一方で、北米は唯一の流出に。

この違いはなぜ生まれたのか。
10月の金ETF動向を、世界の地域別に3つのポイントでnoteにまとめました。
https://t.co/zxJytmD0vA

[いまけん @3580ken]

10月の金価格は前月比6.3%下落と調整局面に。
しかし世界全体の金ETFへの資金流入は加速中。
「底値はどこか？」を探る3つの指標と、2011年相場との決定的な違いを分かりやすく解説します。
調整局面が絶好の買い場になる根拠とは？
noteにまとめました。
詳しくはこちら👇
https://t.co/btupyPWgqT

[いまけん @3580ken]

@cissan_9984 Big TechのAI隠れ債務返済の見通し不透明=暴落継続🤔

Big Techの「簿外債務」が激増中
・米IT大手5社の簿外債務が半年で約2倍の3.2兆ドルに拡大
・約60%が半導体や電力等の購入契約、総資産の約80%に相当
・最大はGoogleの1.05兆ドルで、巨額のAIインフラ投資に伴う長期負担が表面化

[いまけん @3580ken]

@cissan_9984 アノマリー的には買いのようです🤭

S&P500の中間選挙アノマリー
・5〜10%の下落は健全なテクニカル調整の範囲内
・1950年以降の中間選挙後1年間は平均+17.2%上昇
・歴史的なアノマリーでは絶好のデータ傾向

[いまけん @3580ken]

@cissan_9984 バークシャー・ハサウェイも待機中。
3,650億ドルの現金を保有してますね。

[いまけん @3580ken]

@yurumazu AI債券スプレッドも暴落を予見していましたね

・AI投資の膨張に投資家の警戒感が強まる
・テック社債の保有に高いプレミアムを要求
・一般投資適格債とのスプレッドが2003年以降最高を記録

[いまけん @3580ken]

米連邦債務拡大が加速

・10月の米債務が4220億ドル増加し過去最高40.6兆ドル
・対GDP比は123%へ上昇し2020年以来の水準
・先週の国債入札額も過去最大の8390億ドルに到達

米国債は安全な投資先🤔

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: US federal debt surged +$422 billion in October, to a record $40.6 trillion.

Since July 1st alone, US federal debt has soared +$1.2 trillion, averaging +$300 billion per month.

This is equivalent to an increase of ~$10 billion per day.

As a result, the US total public Debt-to-GDP ratio is up to 123%, the highest since the 2020 pandemic peak.

Meanwhile, the Treasury borrowed a record $839 billion through auctions of Treasury bills and notes last week, with the majority going toward repaying holders of maturing bills.

This surpassed the previous all-time high of $834 billion set during the same period in 2025.

The US debt crisis is in full-swing.

[いまけん @3580ken]

ワールド・ゴールド・カウンシル最新レポートより

・金価格の下落は利下げ期待の再価格付けとレバレッジ投資家の売りが主導
・米国の金ETFフローは底堅いが先物市場のポジション調整が進行中

[いまけん @3580ken]

【note記事】2026年Q3の金市場動向を詳しく解説

金ETFへの資金流入が過去最高となり、中央銀行の金購入も増加。一方、宝飾品需要は減少しています。最新データをもとに、金市場の変化と今後の見通しを整理しました。世界経済やGDPへの影響、投資環境の変化にも注目です。
https://t.co/zxJytmD0vA

[いまけん @3580ken]

@gihuboy レバ逆回転中🤔

米国レバレッジETFに過去最大の資金殺到

・1か月間の流入額は150億ドルと過去2年で最大
・10月上旬のマイナス20億ドルから急反転
・3倍ロング半導体ETF（SOXL）が過去最高の73億ドルを記録

[いまけん @3580ken]

金下落の裏にある中央銀行の収集戦略

・中銀による米国の金売却と新市場での買い直しによる自国移送の手法を指摘
・売りを急ぎ買いを緩やかに進めることで価格上昇を抑制し安値で現物を蓄積
・実物金不足の蓄積に伴う将来的な需給による価格の転換点に留意

真偽の判断は各個人にお任せします...🤔

[Eric Yeung 👍🚀🌕 @KingKong9888]

This is a good take by TaoRay:

“I didn't originally want to say this—you won't find such a straightforward revelation anywhere else across the entire web. But since so many people have been asking, I'll just lay it out. The underlying reason for the pressure on gold prices is actually a massive positive signal. One major abnormal factor behind the recent gold price movements is that many major central banks are taking advantage of this window to "secretly" ship gold back from the US to their own countries. The method they're using is to sell off the US gold and then repurchase it in new markets, completing the swap. Why go about it this way? Because under the current market sentiment, the buildup of selling pressure would be even greater. For example, if you sell ten tons of gold, the price will immediately get smashed down. Then you use shadow buyers to gradually repurchase those ten tons in batches, and the price won't even climb back to its previous high. Rinse and repeat, and you'll end up buying even more at a better deal. That's exactly what I mean when I say that national-level forces are ramping up their gold reserves right now—but since they're buying by weight, of course they want it cheaper. This is a form of market manipulation: suppressing prices to accumulate. But you need to understand that they hammer the price down hard when selling, take it slow when buying, and keep the cycle going, so prices stay under pressure. Yet in reality, physical gold is getting scarcer and scarcer until it hits a tipping point—ultimately, supply and demand will dictate the price. It will explode upward in an instant. So smart investors should see through the market sentiment, realize that the sentiment itself is just a tactic, and at a time like this, follow the lead of those national-level forces. Of course, the prerequisite is to keep an eye on your cash flow.”

#Gold #Silver