3RD EYE

AI model to track common-sense and make predictions on geopolitics, elections and global crisis.

[3RD EYE @3RD_AI_]

NYC Mayor Race: Zohran Mamdani vs Andrew Cuomo

Based on our Commonsense AI framework, Mamdani has 65-70% probability of winning the race with a margin of 10-15 points.

While Cuomo has picked up momentum in the last leg of the race, the early advantage of narrative control, and unified popular endorsements for Mamdani are going to be hard to catch up, this late stage in the campaign.

[3RD EYE @3RD_AI_]

Massie vs Gallrein: Who is likely to win?

Based on 22.3K data sets collected from 4 SM platforms, our prediction model is currently indicating the following winning probability:

Thomas Massie: 55%
Ed Gallrein: 45%

Our prediction runs contrary to what appears on Kalshi and Polymarket, but that's because we have taken a slightly new methdological approach to treat the data sets.

[3RD EYE @3RD_AI_]

Iran War: Probability of US/Israel Renewed Strikes May 3 2026

Based on 6237 data points our predictions model places a High Probability of 60% of a US/Israel strike on Iran.

However, given that there are diplomatic off-ramps, backdoor negotiations, we place a medium probability of 30-40% for situation to diffuse.

[3RD EYE @3RD_AI_]

Philippines Tracker: VP Sara Duterte's Declining Approval Rate and Public Sentiment

Summary: While VP Sara Duterte has the highest approval rate in the Philippines political space according to all traditional polls, our AI model is tracking a consistent decline in her approval rate and public sentiment over the last 1 year.

Methodology:
We ran time-series analysis between April 2025 and April 2026 at three different intervals to gauge VP Sara Duterte's approval rate and public sentiment using 262,668 data points from 5 major social media platforms including X, TikTok, IG, YT, and Weibo.

Results on Public Sentiment:

April 2025 vs April 2026
Positive: 40% -> 30% (-10)
Neutral: 30% -> 10% (-20)
Negative: 30% -> 60% (+30)

Conclusion: VP Sara Duterte is not only losing support from the neutral bloc, but there is a visible fracture and a pattern of declining support emerging from her own base. This is primarily owed to 1) serious corruption allegations 2) impeachment proceedings and 3) inaction on her father Rodrigo Duterte's ICC relief.

[Hussain Nadim @HNadim87]

This is an excellent thought @karpathy and we (@3RD_AI_ ) have been deep into this nearly 2+ years now.

We deployed our customized AI model as a new trust infrastructure to track real-time democratic conditions, public sentiment, and government decisions in Pakistan.

https://t.co/iJGtcNDvRm

We did the same for Philippines, and the Trump administration.

The goal is simple: Track decisions, illuminate the public, and enhance accountability by leveraging AI as a new trust infrastructure of society.

[3RD EYE @3RD_AI_]

Philippines Public Approval Rate - March 8 2026

Based on our Commonsense AI model, Sen Bam Aquino, Sen Raffy Tulfo and VP Sara Duterte have the highest approval rate in public.

Here is a breakdown for each:

Sen Bam Aquino:
Approval Rate: 76%
Sentiment: Positive (58%) | Negative (14 %) | Neutral (28%)

Sen Raffy Tulfo
Approval Rate: 82%
Sentiment: Positive (72%) | Negative (10%) | Neutral (18%)

VP Sara Duterte
Approval Rate: 82%
Sentiment: Positive (48%) | Negative (42%) | Neutral (10%)

Methodology: Sentiment is generated based on 1 week of data across 4 different platforms (X, TikTok, IG and YouTube), while Public Approval rate is based on longitudinal data with and additional context layer.

Note: VP Sara Duterte has polarizing sentiment but her approval rate is high due to the base and context specific data.

[3RD EYE @3RD_AI_]

Trump Time-Series Tracker:

Public Approval Rate: Feb 2025 vs Feb 2026

Feb 2025: 55%
Feb 2026: 35% (20 points drop)

Methodology: These score are based on 2.3 million data points scraped over 4 different SM platforms (X, TikTok, Youtube, and IG)

[3RD EYE @3RD_AI_]

Product Launch Update: After our great success in predicting the recent Philippines Senate Elections, we are super excited to launch our Philippines Democracy Tracker.

The tracker will allow public to:
1. Check real-time credibility and public sentiment of key political leaders in the Philippines.

2. Get daily curated insights on the Philippines politics, economy, foreign policy, and social news.

We will also regularly share analytics and predictions related to Ph on our platform here.

Try it out: https://t.co/x09cSpAU2W

[3RD EYE @3RD_AI_]

President Trump: Public Alignment Score
Jan 12 2026

Policies Most Aligned with Public:
1. Credit Card Interest Rate Cap (60%)
2. Support for Protestors in Iran (55%)

Policies Least Aligned with Public:
1. Greenland Acquisition (20%)
2. Criminal investigation into Jerome Powell (25%)
3. Military threats against Iran (30%)
4. ICE Enforcement & Tactics (35%)

Overall Public Alignment Score (40%)

[3RD EYE @3RD_AI_]

Pakistan’s Public Trust Score 2026: Who Do Pakistanis Trust More — Imran Khan or Gen. Asim Munir?

We ran a meta-analysis of public sentiment in Pakistan to compare trust levels between former Prime Minister Imran Khan and current Army Chief General Asim Munir.

Methodology: We calculated public trust score based on 1) Sentiment analysis and 2) Public alignment to narrative camps using discourse analysis as a framework.
Timestamp: Jan 01 2026 - Jan 10 2026 (10 days)
Data Size: ~6700 data points (through keywords Imran Khan, عمران خان Asim Munir, عاصم منیر, Pakistan Army, پاک فوج PTI, تحریک انصاف)
Platforms: X, TikTok and Youtube

Result:
Imran Khan
Credibility Score: 80% - driven by his narrative of fighting for justice and freedom + ability to pull crowds.
Sentiment Analysis: Positive: 60% | Negative: 25%

Gen Asim Munir
Credibility Score: 40% - driven by distrust and accusations of political manipulation and authoritarianism.
Sentiment Analysis: Positive: 10% | Negative: 70%

[3RD EYE @3RD_AI_]

Trump Tracker: Public Alignment Score

We have been continuously tracking President Trump's public alignment over the past 11 months since his inauguration.

Today on Dec 27 2025, we have recorded the lowest public alignment score of President Trump across all domains this year which reflects a big disconnect with the public sentiment.

- Foreign Policy and Military: 40% alignment / 60% off
- Domestic Policies: 30% alignment / 70% off
- Epstein Files: 20% alignment / 80% off
- Public Relations & Media: 25% alignment / 75% off

Overall alignment: 28%

Our AI model previously recorded a high of over 65% in the early days of the Presidency which gradually settled to 45-55% by late summer and has since dropped significantly over domestic issues, especially handling of Epstein files, immigration related issues, and Tariffs blowback.

[3RD EYE @3RD_AI_]

Virginia Governor Race: Winsome Earle-Sears (R) vs Abigail Spanberger (D)

As of Oct 29 2025, our model now places Spanberger into a slightly better position with 55% probability of winning with a margin of 5-8 points.

However, with 6 days left, the race could still swing in either direction, or margin of victory could narrow.

[3RD EYE @3RD_AI_]

Virginia Governor Race : Winsome Earle-Sears (R) vs Abigail Spanberger (D)

Our Commonsense AI model is predicting a very close race that could flip in either direction. While Abigail Spanberger had an initial lead, it is shrinking fast as Winsome Earle-Sears picks up late stage momentum.

Winning Probabilities
Winsome Earle-Sears (50%)
Abigail Spanberger (50%)

We are witnessing the same trend in the VA District 27 House Delegate race that we are tracking where Junaid Khan is narrowing the lead against Atoosa Reaser with both sides have similar odds of winning.

[3RD EYE @3RD_AI_]

Viriginia House Delegate Race: Junaid Khan (R) vs Atoosa Reaser (D)

Key Agenda and Public Alignment

Atoosa Reaser (D) - Public Alignment: 45%
1. Transgender Rights & Inclusion in Loudoun County Public Schools
2. Education policies
3. Gun Violence

Junaid Khan (R) - Public Alignment: 70%
1. Focus on local business for Community and Cultural development
2. Advocacy for Working Families, Small Businesses & Parents
3. Jobs, Car Tax Cuts, & Veterans Support

[3RD EYE @3RD_AI_]

Virginia Governor Race : Winsome Earle-Sears (R) vs Abigail Spanberger (D)

Our Commonsense AI model is predicting a very close race that could flip in either direction. While Abigail Spanberger had an initial lead, it is shrinking fast as Winsome Earle-Sears picks up late stage momentum.

Winning Probabilities
Winsome Earle-Sears (50%)
Abigail Spanberger (50%)

We are witnessing the same trend in the VA District 27 House Delegate race that we are tracking where Junaid Khan is narrowing the lead against Atoosa Reaser with both sides have similar odds of winning.

[3RD EYE @3RD_AI_]

@440cubits On the ground surveys were entirely wrong in the recent Senate Elections, meanwhile our AI model predicted them with most accuracy.

You can access our work and final results here:

https://t.co/4Qxljftw9s

[3RD EYE @3RD_AI_]

Ph Public Pulse: Should Rodrigo Duterte return to the Philippines?

We ran our Commonsense AI model on the query over 83,727 data points across all major platforms. Here are the results:

1. 30% believe Duterte should remain at ICC and face trial.

2. 25% believe he should return to the Phillipines to face trial: since the crimes were committed in Philippines, so should be the justice.

3. 45% believe he should be back because he is innocent.

In total, 70% public sentiment is in favour of his return.

[3RD EYE @3RD_AI_]

Virginia House Delegate District 27 Race: Junaid Khan (R) vs Atoosa Reaser (D)

First time in 3 months our AI model is now indicating Junaid Khan (R) having +5 points Public Alignment Score against Atoosa Reaser.

This can be attributed primarily to grassroots campaign and community mobilization with Junaid Khan getting critical endorsements from South Asian and Hispanic communities.

The race is highly competitive and both candidates have near equal chances of winning.

[3RD EYE @3RD_AI_]

We couldn’t agree more.

As an AI startup we have been in the predictions game for nearly 2 years now and have successfully predicted several geopolitical events and elections including the recent US Presidential elections through our proprietary ‘Commonsense AI’ framework.

We believe that predictions is the highest form of intelligence, and ability to crack that will help humans open up new dimensions of understanding.

[Toby Shevlane @tshevl]

I got back from honeymoon last summer and handed in my resignation at DeepMind. My wife thought I was crazy.

AI has always been about prediction, but normally we predict small things: a token of text, or moves in chess. The ultimate challenge is to predict the world’s most important events.

We recently went up against some of the world’s top forecasters, and came much closer to beating them than any AI system before.

We're used to seeing crazy results from the AI community, but I think this one is special:
1. Accurately forecasting global issues is extremely difficult.
2. You can’t memorize the answer: it hasn't happened yet.
3. It was considered very unlikely for an AI system to do as well as Mantic did (5-10% chance).
4. Superhuman forecasting has the potential for transformative impact across the economy.

She still thinks I’m crazy, but less so every day😛

[3RD EYE @3RD_AI_]

Philippines National Pulse: BBM vs Sara Duterte

There seems to be a race to the bottom, with both Marcos and Duterte slipping in public perception—Marcos more steeply than Duterte.

BBM
Approval: 35%
Disapproval: 65%

Sara Duterte
Approval: 55%
Disapproval: 65%

Methodology: Our Commonsense AI framework analysed 123,000 posts between 15 September - 01 October 2025 to generate public sentiment. We tracked real time public pulse to generate both, time-series and spot analysis on both leaders.

Conclusion: Philippines is facing a serious leadership and trust crisis with lowest ever public trust in leadership recorded by our AI in past 2 years.

[3RD EYE @3RD_AI_]

You can access the platform here: https://t.co/0pZjhNJQ1O

[3RD EYE @3RD_AI_]

We will be covering the upcoming Virginia House Delegate District-27 race between:

Junaid Khan (R) @Junaid4VA
Atoosa Reaser (D) @AtoosaReaser

You can use our platform to monitor real-time updates on the 2 candidates, their public perception, probability of winning, and their alignment to District Public Sentiment.