"He's having a great time in Akron this summer, I don't remember him being in Akron this long in the summer since after his first year in Miami," - @WindhorstESPN breaking down why the vibes point towards Cleveland.
The Mongolian reversal in bitcoin:native yesterday was one of the nastiest moves we have ever seen. Rarely is an entire thesis not only incorrect but the catalyst(s) makes it do a total 180. Theres a lot to learn here.
What we have been saying all along.
AI has become too powerful, so de facto regulation is now in place. At least for now, AI upside is essentially being capped in a market where broad market ETFs increasingly resemble highly speculative single names because of how top heavy they are in AI.
There will be fallout from this. Market crash? Maybe. Market stagnation? Almost guaranteed. $QQQ $SPY
DXY is the focus today.
The dollar has spent months building a base and is now pressing into a major breakout area.
Friday’s selloff in gold was the first real tell. Gold started melting while DXY was showing strength directly at this level, which gave us the added confirmation we needed.
We are not going to front-run the breakout. We want to see DXY get through this level and actually hold above it. If that happens, metals likely stay under pressure and the weakness could begin spreading across commodities and risk assets more broadly.
If DXY rejects here, then it is still stuck inside the same range. If it breaks and holds, dollar strength could become one of the biggest market themes over the next several sessions.
Our biggest takeaway from Warsh’s comments goes beyond whether the Fed sounded hawkish or dovish.
The Fed held rates steady but removed language pointing toward further cuts, while Warsh made clear that forward guidance is no longer well suited to the current environment.
That gives the Fed more flexibility, but transfers more uncertainty to markets. With fewer signals about the future policy path, every CPI, payrolls and PCE release, along with every Fed comment, will carry more weight.
Front end rates and Treasuries should absorb the first and largest repricing, followed by the dollar, gold, rate sensitive equities and emerging market assets.
The likely result is faster repricing, larger reactions to new information and greater volatility as markets are forced to infer the Fed’s reaction function in real time.
Headline trading is going to meaningfully improve.
Also interesting he kept mentioning "the drivers of inflation".
We have gone back and studied nearly every major bubble and speculative run of the past 100 years. Japan’s late-1980s asset bubble is the one we keep coming back to.
The full article is on Substack, but I attached a few relevant excerpts below.
Valuation always matters, eventually.....
https://t.co/SadvQ7sBVb
YES I DID IT!!! 😍
Today was a big one, @LambourneGolf hosted the @ThePGA Championship qualifier, and I knew I wanted this. It’s one of the biggest events for a PGA pro all year. Coming off a shaky performance at the Midland Open yesterday, I was feeling the nerves
The round started strong… My new @Titleist GTS3 driver felt like a rocket launcher! After weeks on short, tight courses where I couldn’t fully unleash it, today I let it fly… and did it pay off! I was striking it beautifully, pairing it with a confident putting performance. By the 14th hole, I was four under par, leading the pack
Then came the last stretch. The heat and a long run of travel caught up with me. I stumbled with three bogeys on 15, 16, and 17 and in those moments I didn’t trust the game plan. But I pulled myself together for a solid par on the last, closing at one under (71), good enough for second place and a ticket to Slaley Hall!
It could’ve been even better, but that’s golf. After multiple rounds over par lately, it feels amazing to be back in the red. Lambourne was in great shape, and I’m thrilled to be heading to one of the season’s biggest stages. Trust the process, let’s keep going!
Open Qualifying less than 4 weeks away 😬😬
Watch this closely.
Fitz drops the winning putt and immediately looks at… the crowd.
Same crowd that cheered and chanted when he missed on the 72nd hole.
Said afterwards it was like winning a football match at your rival’s home ground.
Love it.