Bear Market Research

Qualitative market research integrating geopolitics, economic data, policy, positioning, thematic developments and cross-asset pricing.

[Bear Market Research @BMRGlobal]

We are taking partial profits here.

We will also be launching a public model portfolio soon so every trade can be tracked with full transparency. There will be two portfolios: one for larger, bigger-picture trades and one for intraday ideas.

Only trades that are written out on our private Patreon page or publicly here on X will be counted in the portfolios. No hindsight. No cherry-picking.

Winners and losers will both be visible, along with the analysis behind each trade.

[Bear Market Research @BMRGlobal]

Oil is the market we are watching most closely over the next several sessions.

Trump is warning that the war could continue to rage on, but price is beginning to tell a different story.

Despite the continued escalation rhetoric, oil is struggling to respond the way it should if the geopolitical risk premium were still expanding.

That divergence matters.

$87.50 is the key level.

I am not interested in chasing oil higher or scalping both directions. My only interest is the eventual selloff.

For the short to become actionable, I want a decisive break below $87.50, sellers pressing the move and price failing to reclaim the level. Ideally, that comes alongside a bearish inventory, supply, demand or geopolitical catalyst.

A headline is not enough if price refuses to break. A technical break without a shift in the underlying narrative also reduces conviction.

This is a patience trade, but if price and catalyst align, the next major move in oil could be substantially lower.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: Pakistan PM says US-Iran peace deal signing expected within 24 hours

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

Pakistani Prime Minister: Pakistan prepares to sign electronically on the US-Iranian peace agreement within 24 hours

[Prepared Remarks @P_Remarks]

I know it’s 2026 and nuance is illegal but you can simultaneously think SpaceX rocketry is an impressive engineering achievement while also thinking a $2T valuation is an affront to intellectual honesty

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: SpaceX officially closes its first day of trading at a market capitalization of approximately $2,110,000,000,000.00.

[Patrick Webb @Patrickwebb]

BREAKING: The U.S. and Iran have reportedly reached an agreed-upon text for a peace deal.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: Trump thinks a deal with Iran could be signed over the weekend, or Monday, per Axios

[Bear Market Research @BMRGlobal]

For us the $SPCX trade was better executed through different vehicles earlier in the morning. We look at basic trades through a different lens that we believe gives us the best result beyond just the surface value of the P/L.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

*SPACEX IPO SAID TO DRAW OVER $250 BILLION INSTITUTIONAL ORDERS

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: Thrive Holdings announces it is “long humans” as others bet AI will make people redundant.

[Bear Market Research @BMRGlobal]

@0xfr0g Absolutely

[Bear Market Research @BMRGlobal]

Our best advice for anyone trading today: Patience

[Sam Gatlin @sam_gatlin]

A breakout in the U.S. dollar index would be a BIG problem for risk assets across the board.

[Bear Market Research @BMRGlobal]

Chasing an IPO of this size, at peak hype, is dangerous.

Value is the key driver in all our decisions and it's hard to imagine much value here.

[フ ォ リ ス @follis_]

SpaceX probably prints generational wealth

But not in year 1

Majority of overhyped tech IPOs in the last 20 years had brutal drawdowns in their first 12 months

SpaceX about to join the list

Mega IPOs are usually sell events, not buy events

Don't get left holding the bag

[BRICS News @BRICSinfo]

JUST IN: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran says part of its frozen assets will be released immediately after signing a deal with the United States.

[NewsWire @NewsWire_US]

TRUMP: EVERYBODY IN IRAN HAS APPROVED THE DEAL

[Bear Market Research @BMRGlobal]

https://t.co/IOETGNWOx6

[Polymarket Money @PolymarketMoney]

NEW IN: Crude Oil is now projected to drop to $85/barrel by the end of this month.

[Bear Market Research @BMRGlobal]

Right on schedule

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: US oil prices collapse below $87/barrel after President Trump cancels scheduled strikes on Iran.

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

IRAN HAS REPORTEDLY SUBMITTED A DRAFT AGREEMENT TO THE UNITED STATES THROUGH QATARI MEDIATORS, WITH SOURCES SAYING THE TEXT WAS FINALIZED AND SENT TO WASHINGTON FOR REVIEW. - NY POST

[Bear Market Research @BMRGlobal]

Oil thesis going just how we expected.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

OIL PRICES DROP SHARPLY AFTER TRUMP ANNOUNCES CANCELLATION OF STRIKES AGAINST IRAN