BiTe1437

Momentum trading is my specialty. This journey documents how I’m transforming $20,000 into $2 million to fund my kids’ education

[Vega Hao @Vegahao]

李录这场88分钟的完整对谈，信息量巨大！我制作了中英双语字幕版本，建议转发收藏

AI的成本与泡沫、中国制造业与房地产、股市未来的角色、明确否定加密货币，以及做投资最难跨过去的人性。

其中有一个判断，值得所有在中国做投资、做生意的人反复琢磨：你所在的行业，究竟是国家要实现的目标，还是实现目标需要付出的代价？

在中国投资，先看懂“目标与代价”。 李录认为，中国的发展往往伴随着阶段性的重点转移。一个时期大力支持的行业，到下一个时期，可能就要承担转型的成本。房地产、制造业、环保，都可以放进这个框架里理解。对企业家和投资者来说，光看行业过去赚了多少钱还不够，还要看它现在处在什么位置。

中国股市未来的位置，要放进家庭资产负债表里看。 现场有人直接问：中国股市到底属于目标，还是代价？他的回答很有意思：当房地产在家庭和国家财富中的占比下降，什么资产来承接财富积累？在他看来，股权能分享企业创造的价值，也与经济增长相互促进。这是他的长期判断，至于什么时候发生，他没有给出短期时间表。

AI很有用，也很昂贵，最终仍然要算账。 他反复强调，AI会持续产生增量成本，算力、资本开支、收入和利润都绕不过去。能力越来越强，不代表投入就可以无限扩大。技术可以带来巨大变化，企业最终还是要面对财务纪律，市场也可能在这个过程中经历多轮繁荣与萧条。

中美AI的区别，他用两个问题来概括。 硅谷更关心：这项技术还能做什么，边界能推到哪里？中国企业也关心技术边界，但会更直接地追问：它能为我的消费者和企业客户做什么？一个更强调探索能力，一个更强调客户用途。这是他观察两边商业路径的切入点。

资金越集中，越值得看看被冷落的公司。 当资本压倒性地涌向少数热门企业，市场另一边可能就有优秀公司在低价交易。他认为，美国、中国和其他市场都存在这种分化。机会可能因此增加，但前提很难：你得能在别人不断赚钱、市场不断强化同一个叙事时，仍然保持自己的判断。

对加密货币，他的态度非常明确。 被现场问到时，他直接表示自己不考虑，并认为它最终会自行消失，也不认可它的社会价值。这部分肯定会引发争议。可以不认同他的结论，但值得连着前面关于货币、购买力和价值创造的讨论一起听，看看他的判断是从哪里来的。

价值投资最难的一关，是你到底想让市场服务你，还是指挥你。 有位做了两年价值投资的观众问：坚持理念却跑输市场，甚至影响职业发展，怎么办？李录把问题拉回了人性：既想长期做正确的事，又想每年、每季度、每个月都交出漂亮业绩，最后甚至希望每小时都赚钱，人就会逐渐变成投机者。做这门生意，还必须找到愿意与你长期同行、理念一致的资金。

最后讲到人生时，他把复利落在了几个很具体的东西上：知识、信任关系、智慧、健康。

找到适合自己的方向，选择值得合作的人，让这些东西持续积累。过程中会有好运，也会有坏运气；关键是尽量保住已经积累下来的东西，让时间继续发挥作用。

中英双语完整版放下面。尤其推荐把“目标与代价”、AI成本，以及最后关于职业和人生的问答连起来看。88分钟，可以留一个完整的时间慢慢听。

[BiTe1437 @479207397]

2507 (Defense Sector) Analysis 📈

Entered this morning at $60.17. Here’s the thesis:

Strong Momentum: Initial rally saw a +158.11% gain over 85 trading days.

Healthy Correction: Retraced 44.86% over 95 days.

Volume Dry-up: Volume declined during the pullback, suggesting strong hands are holding and supply is exhausted.

VCP Pattern: Currently forming a tight consolidation area (~6.22% range) with low volume.

Value Area: Pullback bottomed at the High Value area.

S/R Flip: Price is holding firm at a key level where previous resistance has turned into support.

🚩 Stop Loss: $56.2 #HKStocks #TradingView #VCP #Investing

[BiTe1437 @479207397]

@ashikruben369 PDF

[BiTe1437 @479207397]

Buy KARO tonight if it breaks out above $56.69.

[BiTe1437 @479207397]

Recommend buying NFG at the market price, around $91, following a recent breakout.

1. The stock previously gained 22.27% within 65 trading days.

2. The trend line remains intact, with volume showing a decreasing trend, yet buyers are still holding.

3. The price has been consolidating tightly and just broke out, though on relatively low volume. A small position is recommended.

[BiTe1437 @479207397]

To buy STEM at $18.2 at market open:

1. Over the pass 18 trading days, the stock surged by 222.5%, accompanied by strong trading volume.

2. It then pulled back over 6 trading days, correcting approximately 38.57%.

3-4 During this period, the price volatility steadily contracted from 21.03% down to 7.66%, while trading volume decreased. This price and volume contraction formed a classic Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP).

[BiTe1437 @479207397]

Buy TEM at $87.72 with stop loss at $82.63 (‑6.3%).

1 : Pullback with declining volume shows no major selling.

2 : Price and volume rise together, confirming strong buying.

3: Low‑volume pullback signals demand still exceeds supply.

4: Entry point confirmed.

[BiTe1437 @479207397]

After consolidating in a range for 2.5 months, EUR/USD broke out at 1.71. At this stage, I plan to buy euros as a hedge against the risk of dollar depreciation due to rate cuts.

[BiTe1437 @479207397]

Entry & position management:
1️⃣ Enter on trendline breakout
2️⃣ Hold through normal pullbacks (no heavy supply)
3️⃣ Confirm trend with trendline support
4️⃣ If trend breaks on volume → watch 4H, cut 50%
Trade the trend, manage the risk.

[BiTe1437 @479207397]

$ADBE, adobe

Points 1-3 show strong support with active buying. Point 4 has heavy volume but the decline is narrowing, buyers are stepping in. After point 5, volume decreases, supply is drying up. Entered at ~$351.5; with earnings coming, using short-term long calls.

[BiTe1437 @479207397]

HKEX: 2489 Collective Harvest Resources
Buy stop: 1st order at $1.60 (Sep 5 close), 2nd at $1.66 (one tick above Sep 5 high to confirm buying strength).
Stop loss: $1.50 (one tick above Sep 4 low to confirm downtrend).
Splitting buys reduces stop loss distance from 9% to 7.5%.

[BiTe1437 @479207397]

Target reached and position closed at $353. Note the previous overhead supply in this area, which may act as resistance going forward.

[BiTe1437 @479207397]

1: Accumulation zone

2: Rising trendline → institutional buying

3: High volume → institutional activity

4–5: Weak momentum + high volume → bottom accumulation

5: Buy ~$333

6: Stop ~$314 (4.5%, volume support)

[BiTe1437 @479207397]

恆指第一重的壓力位出現，看看能否突破成功

Let's see if Hang Seng index can breaks its 1st first resistance.

[BiTe1437 @479207397]

Check out my #MHI1! analysis on @TradingView: https://t.co/axGXyll7yX

[BiTe1437 @479207397]

@TaPlot 1000% agree. it's interesting that we need to read a lots of different books before we can pick these best one.

[Seth Golden @SethCL]

Is the rally stalled or on the verge of a valuation dilemma? Catalyst for the next leg in the market? https://t.co/xgV8P4Fnza