Price action looks like distribution. Significant section of market has turned seller, but not done. Price levitate with trend traders still long. Might not be tipping point yet. But drop likely sharp when it arrives.
China is in a no win situation. Going to war with taiwan would be beneficial to the us. It destroys a us chip competitor. Cripples china economically. But to not invade taiwan would destroy the last remaining pillar of ccp authority.
@datruthbomb I believe a conflic with china is inevitable. Ccp faces an existential threat with xiaoping reforms. Wealth and western ideologies cannot coexist with communism. Xi is the ccp response. Brutal crack down. Taiwan is a western lock in a very real prison to china force projection
@striderhere I would drive it out of the garage and on to a main street before turning it on. Its not perfect. But reducing the stress of highway driving where i spend 95% of the time, its fantastic.
I am not bullish on china just because its cheap. Create a successful startup and then placed under house arrest because u were too successful.
Given the chance, no one would choose to live in china.
China pioritized construction to spur unprecedented gdp growth. They also cracked down on tech as it threatened one party rule. Population decline and mfg moving out of china because it is no longer cheap. Stimulus without changing fundamental issues will not work.
If I am a market maker, i would smash markets one more time under 4200 and have everyone capitulate. Sell as many puts as possible.
Then ramp into years end to collect big bonuses.
If this was truly bear regime would see up into october or even december to allow true long term distribution.
Down september for put selling and accumulation for seasonal strong end of year. Need vix higher to get more premium on puts. Very orchestrated selloff
Sept week 1. Volatilty up and down with stocks going no where would be sign of top. Possibly even brush to new local highs to chase off final bears.
If continues higher or simply gaps down and keeps going is a no touch.
Mm needs to sell puts/reload if goal is to go up