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Fantasy boards every Tuesday + a data-backed play every day. +255u last 2 NFL seasons. 50 fantasy leagues won. VIP Discord: 1-day free trial

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Fantasy football rest-of-season rankings at every position, with strength of schedule. Best matchups for Weeks 9-14 at QB, RB, WR and TE.

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Week 10 must starts: Trevor Lawrence, Parker Washington, Christian McCaffrey, Ollie Gordon II and Isaiah Likely tonight. Tennessee is last vs WRs, Detroit is last vs TEs. Who's in your lineup? #fantasyfootball #Week10

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@nsfwgeno Need more context tbh. It’s close though.

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Fantasy football rest-of-season matchups at every position, with strength of schedule. Weeks 10-14 at QB, RB, WR and TE, byes marked.

Follow for the Week 10 TD boards on Saturday.

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Christian McCaffrey has scored in seven straight games. Five of those touchdowns came on just 58 touches in his last three. Take it or keep him? Drop your offer 👇 #NFL #FantasyFootball

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Play A Day #7: here's the paper behind tonight's Warriors at Rockets under. Houston is the 4th-slowest team in the NBA, its last five games averaged 210.8 total points, and Golden State is coming off a 21-of-44 night from three. Posted at 220.5 this afternoon; the number has moved to 219.5 at most spots. Posted plays: 3-3. Not a lock.

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Last 7 days, every call I posted: 6-4. Five hit before kickoff, four missed, and the Bucs card went up a minute after kickoff so it's flagged. Since Oct 9: 7-6. Dated posts, misses included. Not a hot streak.

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Play A Day #7: Warriors at Rockets UNDER 220.5, tonight 9:30 ET. Houston is the 4th-slowest team in the NBA, its last five games averaged 210.8 total points, and Golden State is coming off a 21-of-44 night from three. Posted plays: 3-3. Not a lock. #NBA

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Four of the top five fantasy receivers (Smith-Njigba, Watson, Puka, Golden) are on bye in Week 11, plus Bijan, Kyren Williams, Love and Maye. Two at one position is a hole. Fix it now. Who do you own? #FantasyFootball

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PLAY A DAY #7: Warriors at Rockets UNDER 220.5, tonight 9:30 PM ET. We're 3-3: Lawrence, Luka and Tennessee hit; LaPorta, Wentz and Wagner missed (Wagner had 7, needed 8).

THE SPOT. Golden State shot 21 of 44 from three (47.7%) in Monday's 138-87 win over New Orleans. Shooting nights like that are hard to repeat, and the market can lean too hard on them.

THE TEMPO. Houston is the 4th-slowest team in the NBA at 97.5 possessions a game, and 94.0 over its last five. Those five games totaled 210.8 points on average, four of them under 220.5. Golden State sits at the league average (100.1).

THE HOME COURT. Houston is at home tonight, where it runs the 2nd-slowest pace in the NBA: 96.4 possessions a game in 6 home games, after 97.6 last season (3rd slowest at home).

THE FREE-THROW LINE. Both defenses keep teams off it: Houston allows the 4th-lowest free-throw rate in the league (.238 attempts per shot), Golden State the 9th-lowest (.272). Houston's defense rates 8th (109.0 points per 100 possessions).

TRANSITION. Over the last five games Golden State has allowed 9.0 fast-break points a game (2nd fewest) and Houston 9.4 (tied 3rd fewest). Neither team is giving up easy points.

THE INJURIES. Brandon Williams is out for Golden State (left hamstring), along with Jimmy Butler, Kristaps Porzingis, Gary Payton II and Moses Moody. Less tempo from the bench, more work in the half court for Kerr.

THE SPLITS. Nearly everyone is on the over: 82% of the bets and 96% of the money (as of 2 PM ET). NBA games are finishing 2.5 points under the posted total on average this season (under 90-66 in 156 games), and in the 24 games where 75% or more of the bets were on the over, 14 finished under.

THE NUMBER. Under 220.5 at -110 needs 52.4%. Not a lock.

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ESPN says the Giants called Atlanta about Bijan Robinson. He leads the NFL in rushing yards. Five offers, take it or keep him. My rule: volume first, the road breaks the tie. Drop your offer. #FantasyFootball

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@marcbfr Missing a lot of players lol

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How to win your fantasy championship: volume first, playoff schedule second. Who I'm trading for and who I'm moving before Weeks 15-17. Drop your team below and I'll tell you who to buy 👇 #FantasyFootball #FantasyPlayoffs #FantasyFootballAdvice #NFL #FantasyTrade

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@ecust23 Cold world 🥶

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Lost Josh Jacobs or Puka Nacua? Week 10 waiver wire: Kaleb Johnson, Dylan Sampson, Chris Rodriguez Jr., a Tank Dell flier, a Caleb Douglas warning and a Corey Kiner handcuff. Rostered numbers from RotoBot, free with code 4TH. Who did you lose? #FantasyFootball

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PLAY A DAY #6: Franz Wagner over 7.5 assists, Magic at Kings, tonight 10:00 PM ET. We're 3-2: Lawrence, Luka and Tennessee hit, LaPorta and Wentz missed (Wentz threw 25).

THE ROLE. With Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs both out, Franz has averaged 10.0 assists in six games (5, 11, 12, 6, 15, 11) on 38.1 minutes, and went over 7.5 in four of the six. Both are out again tonight, along with Jonathan Isaac and Noah Penda. He plays the most minutes of any forward in the NBA (36.5 a game) and is 10th among forwards in usage (28.0%).

THE OPPORTUNITIES. His potential assists are up to 16.3 a game since Oct 28, from 12.0 in the first three games. He is making 70 passes a game, up from 54, and 88 touches, up from 76. His assist percentage is 42% over the last six games against 35% over the first three. At the league's conversion rate in games with 10 or more potential assists (52.7%), 16.3 chances is 8.6 assists.

THE MATCHUP. Sacramento allows 27.6 assists a game, 8th most in the NBA, and 9.6 a game to forwards, also 8th most (10 games). Guards get 16.6, 6th most. The Kings are without Ben Simmons, Maxime Raynaud and Sean Pedulla. Orlando is a 5.5-point favorite.

THE NUMBER. Over 7.5 at -122 needs 55.0%. Franz is 5 of 9 this season, 4 of his last 5 and 4 of 6 in this exact role.

Not a lock. He had 5 and 6 assists in two of those six games with the same cast, and his assists have run hot against his chances (60 assists on 98 potentials, 61%, against 54% for the league).

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Week 6, live: sell Puka Nacua, trade away Trey McBride. Puka is now likely headed to IR (MCL + PCL sprain, turf toe, out until Week 15 at the earliest) and McBride is in line to catch from a rookie QB. Both calls are on tape. Follow so you hear it before it happens.

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Before you put in waiver claims: five Week 9 pickups, each rostered in under 10% of ESPN leagues this morning. 📰

Section C 👇

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Hot off the press 📰 The 4th Edition, Week 9

Converted: Bucky Irving, Bijan, CMC, Burden, Burrow
Stuffed: JSN, Gibbs, Goff, Swift, Jeanty
Go For It: Boutte, Watkins, Chism, Justice Hill, Pat Bryant

Who's your go-for-it pickup?

Brought to you by RotoBot · code 4TH

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PLAY A DAY #5: Carson Wentz over 30.5 pass attempts, Bills at Vikings, tonight 8:15 PM ET. We're 3-1: Lawrence, Luka and Tennessee hit, LaPorta missed (32 yards).

THE BILLS' OPPONENTS. Teams throw 38.4 passes a game against Buffalo, 2nd most in the NFL, and 6 of 7 went over 30.5: Houston 38, Detroit 39, the Chargers 33, New England 38, the Rams 54, the Raiders 41, Baltimore 26. Buffalo scores 33.3 a game, so teams are chasing. They trail by 5.9 points on average at the snap and throw on 54.7% of neutral downs against a league rate of 50.9%.

THE PRESSURE. Buffalo pressures 34.0% of dropbacks, 3rd in the NFL, and teams still throw 38.4 times a game against them. The rush has not slowed the volume.

THE PLAYS. Opponents run 66.0 plays a game against Buffalo, 5th most, and Buffalo games average 128.6 combined plays against 124 for the league. More plays means more dropbacks.

THE QB. Wentz's five starts: 46, 34, 42, 27 and 20 attempts, 33.8 on average. Murray's five this season: 29, 37, 30, 24 and 29, 29.8 on average.

THE NUMBER. 30.5 at -120 needs 54.5%. RotoBot's sim has Wentz over 30.5 in 59.6% of 10,000 runs, and 67% of the runs where Minnesota loses.

Not a lock. Minnesota has thrown more than 30.5 in only 1 of 7 games this season and runs 59.0 plays a game, 7th fewest. Wentz took 6 sacks in his two games this season, and a sack isn't an attempt. If Minnesota leads, this is a coin flip.

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Tonight's 2u play is locked. 🔒

2u plays went 2-0 on Sunday (Seahawks -8.5, Bucs +6.5).

It drops in the VIP Discord before game time. 1-day free trial 👇
https://t.co/YjQyupfgYP

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Sunday night's write-up 👇

Bucs +6.5 ✅ cashed (2u)
Bears won 27-24.

2u plays: 2-0. Another one tonight 👀

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🚨 SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +6.5

Why is this line so high? Let's talk about it.

Chicago is finishing a prime-time trifecta: Thursday night two weeks ago, Monday night last week, and now Sunday night.

The Bears beat both of last season's Super Bowl teams in back-to-back weeks: the Patriots 30-24, then the champion Seahawks 34-17. Now everybody wants a piece of Chicago.

This is exactly where I think the market has overreacted.

The public loves what it just watched. 78% of spread tickets and 87% of moneyline tickets are on the Bears, and their stock has never been higher.

Meanwhile Tampa Bay quietly won two straight (43-13 at Carolina, 16-0 vs Atlanta). But what is everybody talking about? Baker Mayfield not completing a pass last week. He went 0 for 3 in a game the Bucs won by running it 56 times for 324 yards.

Let's look past the headlines. When I back an underdog catching almost a touchdown, I want two things:

1. A defense that keeps you in the game. Tampa Bay has held FOUR of its last FIVE opponents to 17 points or fewer (GB 17, DAL 16, CAR 13, ATL 0). Only ONE opponent, Cincinnati with 106, has rushed for 100 yards against the Bucs this season. That makes life hard for a Chicago offense that wants to establish the run.

2. A running game that controls the clock. Tampa Bay rushed for 241, 258 and 324 yards in its last three wins. That shortens the game and keeps Chicago's offense on the sideline. At +6.5, that is the script you want. And all five of Tampa's losses this season were by 7 points or fewer.

NOW HERE'S THE BIGGEST THING FOR ME...

Chicago has to be feeling pretty good about itself. Two massive wins, national TV three weeks in a row, everybody talking about how good the Bears are.

But remember: Baker Mayfield's Bucs went into Seattle last season and beat the eventual Super Bowl champs, 38-35. This is not a quarterback or a team that gets intimidated by the moment.

I'm not saying Chicago isn't a good team. They've earned the respect they're getting. But there's a BIG difference between liking a team and liking the number you're asked to lay.

At +6.5 I don't need Tampa Bay to win. I just need them to keep it close, and I think they can.

Give me TAMPA BAY +6.5 on Sunday Night Football. 🏴‍☠️

I expect this one to come down to the wire.

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The other two from Sunday 👆

Tonight's 2u play drops before game time in the VIP Discord.

1-day free trial 👇
https://t.co/YjQyupfgYP

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Sunday receipts 🧾

2u Seahawks -8.5 ✅ (17-3)
2u Bucs +6.5 ✅ (lost 27-24)
Chase Brown o50.5 rush yds ✅ (57)
Bijan 26+ rec yds ✅ (47)
Rams-Commanders u47.5 ✅ (33)
Bryce Young 34+ att ✅ (39)

2u plays: 2-0.
Another 2u play tonight 👀