flesh

株初心者 🇯🇵

[flesh @517Gci]

OMG

[Dutch Montana @heavye2]

#ムショぼけ

[flesh @517Gci]

住友電工w

[flesh @517Gci]

秒トレ界隈は無視に限る
なんか日経50000まで行く可能性あるとか言ってる垢いたし
邪魔

[flesh @517Gci]

なんで今日こんなさがってんの？

[おにやo-228 @oniyanogame]

楽待チャンネルで経済評論家・森永康平さんとの日本経済先行きなどの対談動画上がってました！！編集早すぎる！！
→【おにや初登場】日経平均急落！おにや、含み損700万円を背負い「スピリチュアル・モメンタムチンパンジー」になってしまう《o-228おにや×森永康... https://t.co/Tl1T3ZDGKT @YouTubeより

[HN @PassionAndLuck]

$SATS NAV Analysis

With the SpaceX / SPCX IPO scheduled for 6/12, I want to highlight what may be the most undervalued stock in the S&P 500.

Mcap is only 33B.

$SATS will own approximately 2% of SpaceX / SPCX.

According to the SPCX prospectus, SPCX will acquire spectrum from SATS in exchange for 261.8M shares of SPCX stock, approximately $8.5B in cash, and an additional roughly $2.0B in cash to cover interest payments that SATS was expected to make.

In addition, SATS is expected to sell approximately $23B of spectrum to $T. That transaction was approved by the FCC on 5/12 and is expected to receive final approval around 6/11, leading to the formal closing of the transaction.

Now, let’s do the math.

My base NAV assumptions:

• SPCX ownership equivalent: approximately 2%

• SATS basic shares outstanding: 298M

• Fully diluted share count after convertible debt conversion: 348M
I use 348M shares for the calculation below.

• Cash proceeds from spectrum sales to $T and $SPCX:
approximately $23B from $T
approximately $8B of cash from $SPCX
total: approximately $31B

• If the convertible debt converts into equity, net cash after debt minus cash becomes approximately $11B

• Regulatory / escrow / contingent liability haircut: -$2.5B

• Net cash after haircut: approximately $8.5B

• Residual operating business value: $10B
2026 Q1 operating income of approximately $300M × 4 quarters × 8x multiple

• Even after selling spectrum to $T and $SPCX, SATS will still retain residual spectrum assets. The most notable example is AWS-3 paired spectrum, which SATS previously planned to sell to $VZ for approximately $9.8B.

If we conservatively value the remaining spectrum at $10B, that alone adds approximately $28.7 per share of NAV based on 348M shares.

Formula:

SATS NAV
= {SPCX market cap × 2% + net cash after haircut + residual operating business value + remaining spectrum value} / 348M shares

= {SPCX market cap × 2% + $8.5B + $10B + $10B} / 348M shares

SATS NAV by SPCX market cap:

• SPCX $2.0T → SATS approximately $197
• SPCX $2.25T → SATS approximately $211
• SPCX $2.5T → SATS approximately $226
• SPCX $2.75T → SATS approximately $240
• SPCX $3.0T → SATS approximately $254

The key point is that this is not a normal NAV discount trade.

Even if SPCX prices the IPO around $1.75T, the actual initial float could be extremely thin.

Most of the IPO shares are likely to be pre-allocated to institutional and retail investors.

That means the number of shares actually available in the open market on IPO day could be far smaller than the headline IPO size suggests.

The real question is not:

“How many SPCX shares will be issued?”

The real question is:

“What is the actual dollar value of SPCX shares available to buy in the open market on IPO day?”

If the day-one public float is limited, and global institutions, retail investors, Musk-related capital, AI funds, and space-theme capital all rush in, SPCX could temporarily trade at $2.5T–$3.0T or even higher.

The possibility of early Nasdaq-100 inclusion should also not be ignored.

Nasdaq recently changed its rules to make it easier for mega-cap IPOs to be added to the index early.

If SPCX shows a massive market cap and sufficient liquidity soon after listing, it could become a candidate for index inclusion without waiting for the regular annual rebalance.

That said, if SPCX’s float is extremely low, it will likely be affected by float-adjusted weighting and index weight limits.

So Nasdaq-100 inclusion alone should not be used to justify the entire thesis.

Still, the expectation of index inclusion could trigger front-running by institutions, ETFs, and event-driven funds.

If that happens, SPCX supply-demand could tighten further, and SATS NAV would be repriced in real time.

[ぱりてきさす @paristexas2009]

トランプそのうちイランにネタニヤフのリアルタイム位置情報教えてあげそう。

[flesh @517Gci]

ヤマカイ売ってるやん！w(キオクシア)

[flesh @517Gci]

富豪だったらキオクシア買いたい

[flesh @517Gci]

ヤマカイ負けてるやん！w(アドバンテスト)

[flesh @517Gci]

ヤマカイ負けてるやん！w(キオクシア)

[flesh @517Gci]

眠すぎる

[flesh @517Gci]

耐えよ

[flesh @517Gci]

仕手株イナゴベトコンにポンジは取ってとらすババ抜きのように🎶

[pyon @pyon]

キャバ嬢やコンカフェ嬢が株や積み立てを始めているのは裾野が広がった話でマネーショートのストリッパーが家を何軒も買った話は返済能力の低い層までレバレッジをかけて不動産を買えてしまう話なのでまた別の話ですし、とはいえちょっとした変化の兆しではある

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@zerohedge False

[基島隆蔵 @ryuzo_jp]

超一流クオンツHFT企業、Hudson River Tradingの2015年のインターンは、次のPayPalマフィアだった。

- Hyperliquid (時価総額約6.7兆円)の創業者
- Scale AI (時価総額約4.6兆円、MetaのAI責任者)の創業者
- Cognition (時価総額1.6兆円)の創業者+CTO
- Decagon (時価総額7100億)の創業者
- Perplexity (時価総額3.1兆円)の創業者
- Pika Labs (時価総額1.4兆円)の創業者

が全員、同じ時期のインターン生だった。

[flesh @517Gci]

アドバン26000付近ロングしか勝たんのよなー

[NVIDIA Newsroom @nvidianewsroom]

Dinner with the Huangs.

Jensen joined his parents for a family meal and took a moment to share fried mantou with local media gathered at the restaurant.