灰看宏观

宏观爱好者，资产加速器

[灰看宏观 @519723910]

以前卖楼花的时候，开发商像种麦子。虽然辛苦，收成还算稳定。以后卖现房，开发商像养猪，房价会像猪周期一样波动。

[灰看宏观 @519723910]

低保户有没有去香港看演唱会的权利？

江西赣州民政部门正在核查，律师普遍认为取消资格“于法有据”。
· 政策定性为“高消费”：多地明确将“自费出境旅游娱乐”列为高消费核查情形。
· 违背制度初衷：将数千元积蓄用于买票、路费及食宿，会被认为有能力承担非必需高消费，不再符合救助标准。

[灰看宏观 @519723910]

@wsiwsii 以后设计就是一人一机工作室了

[灰看宏观 @519723910]

彭博社：交易员们为了降低集中押注人工智能的风险，开始关注中国股市。中概股的春天要来了。

[灰看宏观 @519723910]

@Salmonbro 物极必反，淘汰中小房企，剩下就是寡头格局，重新掌握定价权。

[灰看宏观 @519723910]

@lb377204209 永远要相信周期的力量

[灰看宏观 @519723910]

明年一二线必将回暖，永远要相信周期的力量

[房策 🧣 @lb377204209]

现在还有人怀疑我明年房地产回暖的判断吗，我来给大家解释一下！

1：土拍全部是国企央企拿地，这意味着和银行亲自下场拿地没有任何区别，也就是左右手的问题🙋‍♀️！

2：“现房销售”只是表象，根本目的是为了减少“市场供应”，人为制造“稀缺感”。

3：现在购房主力是2001年左右出生的人口，仍然处于历史高位，现在减少市场供应，加上强有力的拆迁，可以慢慢稳定一二线城市房价。

4：土拍“高溢价”没必要去看，属于自娱自乐的游戏，也是给购房者吃的一个“定心丸”！

[灰看宏观 @519723910]

万物皆有周期

法则一：多数事物都是周期性的。
法则二：当别人忘记法则一时，某些最大的盈亏机会就会到来。

[灰看宏观 @519723910]

风险更高的投资必须提供风险更高的收益

[灰看宏观 @519723910]

房价上涨的可能性更大

828新政将进一步挤出中小开发商，市场加速进入寡头格局。这将让留下来的企业更有能力控制市场价格。
现房销售带来的资金成本放大，必将反映到未来的新房售价。只有一种情况能改变，那就是土地价格大幅下调，但地方政府会同意么?

[灰看宏观 @519723910]

这对电动汽车行业会产生巨大利空。Cybercab让车的使用效率更高，它可以在送丈夫去上班之后再返回家里送孩子上学。原来需要两辆车完成的任务现在一辆车就可以了。甚至在晚上它还可以去成为出租车运营。我们不需要巨大的停车场了，它们将会持续流动起来。

[Rob Maurer @robmaurer]

Cybercab is absolutely magical. Tesla has actually done it. A domestically mass-produced affordable autonomous electric vehicle is available to the general public. A car with no steering wheel generating revenue.

It’s sad to come back to a city without Robotaxi after being in Austin. Like stepping back in time. The event was awesome. I know it was tough to follow online, but we all knew the story going in.

This was a launch, not an unveiling. It felt like the city transformed immediately. Cybercabs were everywhere, you couldn’t take a trip without seeing another one. Outside of the ride experience itself, the scale of this launch is what I want to make sure people understand.

On previous trips, Robotaxi felt like a test network (an amazing one). Not anymore. Suddenly it’s real. It’s hard not to laugh when you ride past a Waymo in a Cybercab. Good luck… As I’ve said before, Robotaxi is way smoother than Waymo. It feels natural. Supernatural, really. This holds true for Cybercab. Waymo feels like a computer. And it looks like one too.

The production Cybercab is beautiful. It really is special. The color, the lines, the lighting, the doors. It looks great. While also being the most efficient car in history? Insane. I think it fits perfectly in the space between familiarity and the future. It doesn’t stick out, but it catches your attention. After exiting our first ride, there was a large group of 10-20 people. They were all talking about the Cybercab as we walked by. These doors are like gasoline on a word of mouth wildfire.

Our rides were flawless. Better than a human driver. No anxious moments. Cybercab is very comfortable, even at 6’2. Leg room is particularly notable. It would be tough to find a car that has this much leg room for two passengers at the same time. No pedals, center console, or multiple rows of seating creates a lot of space and a very open feel.

Robotaxi is unquestionably one of those products that will be way cheaper and way better than what existed before. I like those. No one is going to want to roll the dice on some random person and their car when the alternative is a private, safe, comfortable, clean, consistent, quiet, personalized Tesla with tons of room and a massive screen. It’s a premium experience on every level, and we get it cheaper thanks to technology. No noise or air pollution, either.

I don’t have much to critique. Little refinements that I know will happen. Pick up and drop off were satisfactory, over time will become excellent. Grok integration is already impressive, and it’s clear that we’ll eventually be able to just give directions like “pull over around the corner up there.” You can already have Grok update your destination in Robotaxi, it pushes the update to the Robotaxi app on your phone for approval.

I leave the event with more confidence in Tesla’s ability to scale, but also renewed patience. I have a greater appreciation for the intentionality of limitations (service area, times, fleet size) rather than seeing them simply as barriers that have yet to be overcome. I now believe the objective is to build slowly, safely, to critical mass. A tail-risk event is inevitable. The absolute last thing we need is some bad luck on a tail-risk event at an early stage before enough data exists to prove its rarity. That data is accumulating quickly and will become undeniable soon enough.

Huge congrats to Tesla and Elon for this incredible milestone. Decades of work culminating in a life-saving, sustainable, affordable, economically exceptional product. It’s all pretty surreal, a testament to vision and determination. I love this company!

[灰看宏观 @519723910]

AI泡沫破灭之日，就是SpaceX腾飞之时

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@BasedMikeLee I have stock in SpaceX and Tesla, not some big pile of cash.

As my companies do more and more useful things, their value increases proportionate to their projected usefulness. All shareholders benefit along the way, including most retirement programs.

[灰看宏观 @519723910]

SPCX的价值增长也将再现！

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

We’ve come a long way. Tesla IPO value was a thousandth of its current value!

[灰看宏观 @519723910]

828新政对房价的长远影响

新房销售制度的根本性变革会大幅降低未来两年的新房供给，市场的供求关系会再平衡。近三个月以上海为代表的一线城市纷纷止跌回升，叠加新政后的供给萎缩，房价将进一步强化上涨趋势。

[灰看宏观 @519723910]

@Alucard19972 @jeonsuwu 说的好！无能为力！

[灰看宏观 @519723910]

Beautiful Shanghai