Been posting that this ratio was bottoming. And with silver´s huge move lately, it broke out above blue line.
Next big silver move starts at blue backtest.
As been saying - these market opportunities are extremely rare, maybe once or twice in a lifetime, so make the most of it.
More than half of all $BTC in circulation is now held at an unrealized loss.
10.5M BTC are underwater. Only 9.8M are in profit.
This crossover has coincided with every major bear market bottom in history.
BTC also just touched its 200-week moving average at $61,300, a level reached in every previous bear market cycle, though it broke below it for 9 months in 2022.
If $60k breaks, the next support is $54,000, the average cost basis of every coin in circulation.
History says we're near a bottom. History also says "near" can take a while.
#Commodities
Crude oil is trading higher for a third consecutive session, with Brent pushing above USD 97 as market pessimism once again grows over the prospects of a US-Iran deal that could pave the way for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The latest escalation saw US forces intercept Iranian missiles and drones before striking an Iranian command center in response. For now, the risk premium continues to be partly offset by President Trump's repeated insistence that an interim agreement remains within reach.
Attention now turns to the EIA's weekly inventory report after the API reported a 6.8 million barrel decline in US crude stocks, which, if confirmed, would mark a sixth consecutive weekly drawdown. Traders will also be watching inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, where stockpiles have fallen to around 23 million barrels, not far above the roughly 20 million barrel level widely considered the operational minimum.
Gold trades lower as the market continues to take its cues from oil, with the latest rise in crude prices weighing on bullion through its inflationary impact. Higher energy costs have underpinned bond yields and the dollar while reducing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. For now, gold remains trapped in a narrowing range around USD 4,500, with support provided by the 200-day moving average at USD 4,417 and resistance emerging around USD 4,620.
Copper futures in New York trades near last month's record high of USD 6.7160 per pound and is up 17% year-to-date as demand continues to outpace supply, with AI infrastructure investment providing an increasingly important source of consumption growth. In addition, the High-Grade contract is once again outperforming London prices amid renewed speculation over potential US import tariffs. The US Commerce Department faces a 30 June deadline to deliver its latest recommendation on copper tariffs, helping maintain bullish sentiment across the market.
The "Crypto is dead, its all going to tech stocks" narrative is alluring but overall this is the actual results from the liquidity cycle low in 2022...
Now Uranium Rips Higher
‘Uranium ripped overnight and for once the tape is telling the truth. Uranium is everywhere yet barely a fraction of it is economically mobile enough to keep a grid running in perpetuity. In a deglobalising world, that is exactly the kind of scarcity governments pay up for.
THE LEADERSHIP TELLS YOU EXACTLY WHAT KIND OF MOVE THIS WAS
Ur-Energy +22.8%, Uranium Energy +13.6%, Energy Fuels +10.9%, NexGen +8.9%, Cameco +7.1%, Denison +7.0%, IsoEnergy +6.1%, Sprott Uranium ETF (URNM) +6.9%. The Sprott physical trust was flat-to-down (-0.7%) and Kazatomprom (KAP) lagged at +1.0%. This was NOT a spot melt-up. It was the leverage and the US-supply-security end of the curve doing the work. We are active in this space.
WHY IT MOVED
Urenco unveiled a multi-billion-dollar plan to lift capacity by close to 50% at the only commercial enrichment facility in the US. Enrichment runs on processed natural uranium, so this is immediate and long-dated pull-through demand for domestic miners, landing right as the US moves to a full ban on Russian uranium imports from 1 Jan 2028. Stack on Energy Fuels' Q1 beat (revenue ~US$35.8m vs ~US$31.3m est, more than doubling YoY) and Cameco lifting its Cigar Lake stake via TEPCO's 5%, and the session had a real fundamental spine.
THE REAL TELL IS THE TERM CURVE, NOT SPOT
Spot peaked near US$94/lb in January and has drifted to ~US$84/lb May (DATA HEREand HERE).
The term price, meanwhile, has risen every single month of 2026: US$89 to US$94/lb.
Soft spot, grinding term price = utilities contracting forward into a market they know is structurally short. Section 232 already designates uranium a national security asset. Feedback we have received is the door is open to price floors even government equity in domestic producers.
THE STRUCTURAL SETUP - EVERYONE IS REACHING FOR THE SAME SHRINKING POOL
Three things are happening at once and they all point the same way:
1) Kazakhstan turning inward. Kazakhstan supplies ~40% of the world's uranium and the low-cost incumbent is becoming a less reliable supplier to the West. Its Budenovskoye JV has 100% of output committed to Russia through 2026, Kazatomprom is cutting 2026 production by ~10%, and Kazakhstan is building its own reactor fleet with Russia's Rosatom and China's CNNC.
2) India wants all of it. India's High Commissioner to Canada, Dinesh Patnaik: "we would buy as much uranium as Cameco can produce." That is already backed by a ~22 million pound, ~US$2.6bn nine-year Cameco offtake running from 2027, against a plan to lift Indian nuclear capacity roughly tenfold by 2047.
3) The US can't feed itself. America burns ~50 million pounds a year and mines barely ~2 million (4% of what it consumes) while banning Russian imports from 2028 and building out domestic enrichment via Urenco. The maths does not close without a lot more Western pounds’ #Shaw
If you don’t see that AI - and the stock market in general - is in the final stages of its cycle, then I’m sorry but investing is not for you.
Buy low, sell high.
Or: buy when there’s blood on the streets, sell when your taxi driver is talking about it.
All this sounds simple in theory, yet so difficult for people to execute on.
@Nebraskangooner Honest question. Why 12-18 months pump? 'cause FED won't hike a/o 'other big banks' will 'QE' - so fed doesn't have to officialy- due to instability geopolitically & - economics? Slowing economy urges in that direction? AI sector, MAG 7 % in SNP500, Gold/SNP low. Please respond
@QuintenFrancois@Andre_Dragosch Risk off sentiment ~ Iran gulf irratic policies & Inflation shock due to oil & gas delivery limitations that wil hit start hitting hard in 2H2026. With USbond rollover (9T) - has to be 'tricked around' [T bills, Fed balance] - --> Prrrinter! & rate cuts. Then btc ⬆️. ⬆️6 months?
I understand the negative sentiment around crypto right now.
Crypto has fundamentally changed. The idea that “everything pumps” during altseason is likely over - or at least far weaker than in 2017 and 2021. The market is becoming more selective, more like equities.
Token value capture matters more than ever. Profitability, real usage, staking, buybacks, burns, and sustainable tokenomics will increasingly determine which projects survive and outperform - especially for top 100 tokens.
I also agree with much of the current criticism around Ethereum. Ethereum positioned itself as a settlement layer, but much of the value capture shifted to L2s and stablecoins. Most trading activity runs on USDT/USDC, not ETH, and gas fees are often paid in L2 tokens instead. They failed to capture the value of their own ecosystem.
Ethereum can still turn things around, but recent developments within the Ethereum Foundation have not inspired much confidence so far.
Moral of the story: picking the right projects has never been more important. Focus on assets with real usage, strong token value accrual, institutional appeal, and obvious long-term narratives - like AI.