The Iran war removed an estimated 1.15 billion barrels of oil from global supply.
Even with the Strait of Hormuz fully reopened, inventories could still run dry after such a shock.
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BREAKING: Iran has suspended its entire 60-day negotiation period with the US over the direct violation of the MOU's first clause, with Israeli attacks on southern Lebanon constituting a breach less than 24 hours after the MOU was electronically signed, per Fars and Al-Mayadeen.
Iran's negotiating delegation had already been preparing to depart for Switzerland to launch the first round of talks before Iran made the decision to suspend the entire trip.
Iran will also not unilaterally fulfill its commitments, and until Iran is fully assured Israeli attacks on Lebanon have stopped and the US has practically adhered to the first-clause obligations, talks remain cancelled.
BREAKING: The White House has released the full text of the US-Iran MOU, which confirms full US capitulation to Iranian demands. Iran's top negotiator and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf in a new interview called this final MOU the ultimate "America's failure."
The 14 key points:
1. Permanent termination of war on all fronts including Lebanon, with US and Iran committing to never initiate military operations against each other and to protect Lebanese sovereignty
2. At least $300 billion in reconstruction and economic development funds for Iran from the US and regional partners
3. Permanent termination of all sanctions including UN Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board resolutions, and all unilateral US primary and secondary sanctions
4. Full release of all Iran's frozen funds and assets, up to $100 billion total, with the Central Bank of Iran designating beneficiaries
5. Iranian sovereign administration over the Strait of Hormuz with only a 60-day free passage waiver, after which Iran begins collecting transit fees from every commercial ship
6. Full removal of US naval blockade within 30 days and withdrawal of all US forces from all US bases around Iran within 30 days after the final deal
7. Iran retains its full enrichment infrastructure with only existing stockpiled material to be down-blended on-site under IAEA supervision, with no new concessions on its existing NPT commitment
8. Iran's missile program and support for Resistance groups are explicitly removed from final deal negotiation scope
9. Mutual recognition of sovereignty and non-interference in internal affairs, formally legitimizing the Iranian regime
10. US commits to no new sanctions and no additional forces in the region while Iran maintains its current nuclear program status quo
11. Immediate US Treasury waivers for Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and all banking, insurance, and transportation services
12. Friday's signing will trigger a 60-day final deal negotiation period, extendable by mutual consent
13. Joint executive mechanism to monitor implementation and final deal compliance
14. The final deal will be endorsed by a binding UN Security Council resolution
Iran via Tasnim has confirmed this is the final MOU, with Ghalibaf adding "everything we sought to achieve through military action was secured several times over at the negotiating table, in a way that cannot even be compared."