Oil Bear 26

They lie, and then they lie about the lies

[Oil Bear 26 @612Gravy]

It's like the tech bubble, GFC, and Covid had a baby.

[Oil Bear 26 @612Gravy]

In the real world global oil and product stocks draw 9 million barrels a day.

[LiveSquawk @LiveSquawk]

US Pres. Trump: Iran Issue Is A Military Conflict, 'Small Potatoes'
- We're Taking Out Lots Of Oil, Control Hormuz Strait
- We Do Intermittent Strikes In Iran
- We May Hit Pickaxe Very Soon

[Oil Bear 26 @612Gravy]

@GasBuddyGuy Get the hats!

[Oil Bear 26 @612Gravy]

Bro @Investor_NICK_ when are you and ur Florida posse taking $LULU private?

[Oil Bear 26 @612Gravy]

@tdarling1 -15k

[Oil Bear 26 @612Gravy]

@GasBuddyGuy Where can I buy a $6 diesel gas buddy hat?

[Oil Bear 26 @612Gravy]

When is #doomberg going to apologize for being wrong on $150 diesel. @DoombergT

[Oil Bear 26 @612Gravy]

9:25am, September 2, 2026. Bessie gives the *FP to the J-pow.

[Oil Bear 26 @612Gravy]

Today's market action seems like a negative NFP print got leaked

[Oil Bear 26 @612Gravy]

@GasBuddyGuy How will you be celebrating the new high? Maybe a $6 diesel hat like the old Dow 30,000 hats?

[Oil Bear 26 @612Gravy]

I need to know what Goldman is thinking about the Strait of Hormouz going back to normal by the end of June.
#brent250

[Oil Bear 26 @612Gravy]

The Fed will sit on its hands as inflation destroys the dollar

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Warsh says Fed has more work to do unless confident underlying inflation is moving towards 2% objective

Speech highlights (courtesy of Newsquawk)

Rates Outlook

Warsh says Fed has more work to do unless confident underlying inflation is moving towards 2% objective

Policy Stance

Warsh says Fed’s predominant focus should currently be on prices
Warsh says July meeting’s “good majority” judged waiting was the wiser course

Balance of Risks

Warsh says price-stability numbers are “more concerning”

Inflation

Warsh says 2% PCE inflation target is firm and fixed; Fed must deliver stable prices
Warsh says summer inflation data were better than expected but do not show underlying trends meaningfully changed
Warsh says medium-term inflation expectations are broadly stable but must be closely monitored
Warsh says wage growth is moderate but not a reliable indicator of future inflation

Labor Market

Warsh says labor markets are stable

Economy

Warsh says economy appears to have strengthened; overall performance is impressive
Warsh says business investment is rising rapidly

Financial Conditions

Warsh says he is “hard-pressed” to describe financial conditions as restrictive
Warsh says credit and loan markets show few signs of policy restraint
Warsh says market prices show confidence Fed will deliver price stability

[Oil Bear 26 @612Gravy]

The propaganda from the NYP is thick.

[New York Post @nypost]

Iran's top civilian leaders push for cutting a deal with Trump to end the war: 'We will not endure' https://t.co/0aow6gpe9R

[Oil Bear 26 @612Gravy]

Disagree, Iran will just bomb Israel relentlessly. No beef with GCC when it comes to Israel

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

The market has yet to realize that there is no TACO for Trump.

Scenario 1: the US leaves the region and Iran is in control

Let’s assume that Trump decides that this war is too much, and he wants to leave the region. He folds completely, agrees to withdraw all of the troops, and hands Iran control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran will immediately turn around, continue to use the Strait of Hormuz as leverage, and demand concessions from Israel. You see, to become a regional hegemon means that you need to eliminate all threats.

Israel, which sees the conflict with Iran as all-or-nothing (similar to how Iran sees the conflict with the US), will just escalate, which will force the US back into the fold. Israel could threaten to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure, which would force Iran to retaliate against GCC energy infrastructure creating a permanently higher plateau for oil prices because of structural losses in production capacity.

This means that scenario 1 is not even a plausible path to pursue. Iran will escalate even if the US capitulates, and Israel will force the US to re-enter down the road.

Lose-lose.

[Oil Bear 26 @612Gravy]

#brent250

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Trump orders US envoys to completely halt all possible future negotiations with Iran, per CNN.

A US official also tells CNN that the US has "informed allies it is in the process of changing its strategy toward Iran."

This comes as Iran is preparing for a preemptive strike and has switched its policy from defensive to "fully offensive."

[Oil Bear 26 @612Gravy]

Remember when Goldman said the strait of hormouz would be back to normal by June. Good times.

[Oil Bear 26 @612Gravy]

Wow, 2 years

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on the Strait of Hormuz:

The strait is never going back to the way it was because the Iranians have used, or tried to use it, as a choke point.

What we are going to see over the next two years, the strait is going to become irrelevant.

It is going to become just another body of water, and I would say that more than 50 or 70% of the energy that moves through the strait now is going to go through underground pipelines.

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on the Strait of Hormuz:

The strait is never going back to the way it was because the Iranians have used, or tried to use it, as a choke point.

What we are going to see over the next two years, the strait is going to become irrelevant.

It is going to become just another body of water, and I would say that more than 50 or 70% of the energy that moves through the strait now is going to go through underground pipelines.

[Oil Bear 26 @612Gravy]

@elliottengenMN You should denounce Trump

[Oil Bear 26 @612Gravy]

When you lose a war you don't make the rules.

[Oil Bear 26 @612Gravy]

This guy gets it. They are gonna play rope-a-dope between the choke points

[Middle East Observer @ME_Observer_]

⚡️⭕️ Iran: Tehran's Friday Prayer Leader Hojjat al-Islam Haj Ali Akbari says the enemy has suffered a disgraceful defeat and resorted to pleading. He cited the Strait of Hormuz, Bab al-Mandeb, armed forces, and a resistance economy as components of power against the enemy. (IRIB News)