Frank

[Frank @6619knarf]

@EmpireCityBO @warnerbros If they didn't pull this so late, FNAF 2 would've fit nicely in this spot instead of early December.

[Frank @6619knarf]

@EmpireCityBO @Martin737727572 @Superman @DCOfficial It does feel like the summer kinda died off pretty hard post-Memorial Day. You think we still have a shot at a $9.5bn DBO this year?

[Frank @6619knarf]

@DustinGouker I don't think they explicitly said it. In the Q&A on their last earnings call, they implied their guidance for 2024 assumed no market share gains. So if they were 7% in the last months of 2023, then that's probably what people are referencing

[Frank @6619knarf]

@gamblinglamb FDJ can afford it but is an entity owned 20% by the French govt going to buy an operator with a bunch of grey European market exposure?

[Frank @6619knarf]

@gamblinglamb @BradAllenNFL Or that 20% being based on GGR was largely BS because it was really just measuring how much were you willing to spend on marketing/promos relative to DKNG/FD

[Frank @6619knarf]

@Gugabed @gamblinglamb 10-11% of revenue on marketing. Can't think of any public sports betting operators with a lower ratio than that.

[Frank @6619knarf]

@gamblinglamb It's down because the market thought he'd be allowed to come back and give 888 possibly the best management team in the industry. Now they're back to having no management team, too much debt and another license review!

[Frank @6619knarf]

@gamblinglamb @YorkshireFlint I would guess that it's still in the billions. It's early but from the state numbers, it feels like Bet365 has probably burned $50mn+ in 4 months in one state to grab 7-8% GGR share and I imagine that share will drop once they stop spending 100% promo/GGR.

[Frank @6619knarf]

@gamblinglamb @YorkshireFlint Well even if they bring over the better platform, is it too late? Like how much $$ do you have to invest in marketing to grab 5-10% share at this point? Feels like the answer is probably billions and none of the EU guys have the balance sheet to pull it off

[Frank @6619knarf]

@gamblinglamb @YorkshireFlint I can confirm that the other apps are really that bad. I don't understand how William Hill, Unibet, etc. have captured significant share in Europe if the products are comparable to the products they offer in the US.

[Frank @6619knarf]

@gamblinglamb Founder-linked meaning Anders Strom comes back? I don't think Henrik leaves if the ultimate outcome is that.

[Frank @6619knarf]

@gamblinglamb Probably. It was obvious to me that ever since the activist requested a sale of the business last year that Henrik was pretty strongly against that idea.

[Frank @6619knarf]

@gamblinglamb Naming an interim CEO without declaring a search for a full-time CEO? Sounds like the strategic review is ending with a sale to me.

[Frank @6619knarf]

@gamblinglamb @MazzNYC Ah fair. Maybe I’m misreading it. Could be JPJ or Botemania since Spain has been weak. Doubt its Monopoly or Virgin

[Frank @6619knarf]

@gamblinglamb Perhaps we're all just resigned to the best case scenario being that the Gambling Act Review accelerates the death of third tier online casino, moves some share to the big boys and the market is LSD growth thereafter.

[Frank @6619knarf]

@gamblinglamb Maybe. In the same quarter FD did +$22mn EBITDA, DK did -$118mn (including $135mn SBC so really -$253mn). Feels like a long way to go. Also, they're the only one that has some reasonable probability of needing to raise equity.

[Frank @6619knarf]

@gamblinglamb By this time next year, Kindred is most likely to not be public so them. Otherwise, probably Entain