10 AM Market Dump: How Jane Street Suppresses Bitcoin Prices
Bitcoin should realistically be at least $150,000. A federal lawsuit filed in Manhattan explains why it hasn't reached that level. The entire case can be broken down into three primary threads:
An insider trading lawsuit involving a private chat group named "Bryce’s Secret."
A systematic programmatic selling pattern at 10:00 AM ET that began in late 2024 and persisted throughout 2025.
A 13F filing that disclosed massive ETF holdings but failed to disclose derivative hedges.
All three leads point to a single name: Jane Street Capital.
1. Terraform Labs and May 7, 2022
Bryce Pratt interned at Terraform Labs before joining Jane Street in September 2021. On May 7, 2022, Terraform withdrew 150 million UST from the Curve 3pool. Approximately 10 minutes later, a wallet linked to Jane Street withdrew 85 million UST from the same pool. Within days, UST de-pegged, Luna entered a death spiral, and roughly $40 billion in market value evaporated. The lawsuit alleges Jane Street offloaded its position hours before the ecosystem collapsed, avoiding over $200 million in exposure. Jane Street denies the allegations. (Note: A separate $4 billion lawsuit against Jump Trading exists within the same context.)
2. The 10 AM Bleed Pattern
Starting in late 2024 and intensifying in 2025, Bitcoin exhibited a rapid price drop near 10:00 AM ET almost every trading day. For instance, on a day in December, the price fell from $89,700 to $87,700 within minutes, triggering $171 million in long liquidations. This pattern continued for months, paused briefly after the Terraform lawsuit went public, and resumed in Q3 2025, appearing frequently again by December.
3. Q4 2025 13F Disclosures
Jane Street’s Q4 2025 13F filing revealed:
IBIT Holdings: 20,315,780 shares (approx. $790 million).
Quarterly Increase: 7,105,206 shares (approx. $276 million).
Note: Their IBIT position had previously peaked near $2.5 billion.
MSTR Holdings: Increased by 473% to 951,187 shares (approx. $121 million). Jane Street is one of the four Authorized Participants (APs) for IBIT, alongside Virtu Americas, JP Morgan Securities, and Marex.
4. The 13F Blind Spot
A 13F filing discloses long equity positions but excludes options, futures, and swaps. While the filing shows $790 million in IBIT, it does not show whether there are equivalent put options or short futures. If a $790 million short hedge exists, the net exposure is zero. If the derivatives exceed $790 million, the net exposure could be negative (short). This remains hidden from the public.
5. Structural Logic
If an institution possesses ETF creation/redemption rights, massive derivative scale, and inventory management capabilities, they can execute concentrated sells during liquidity transition windows like 10:00 AM. This triggers liquidations, allowing them to cover positions at lower price ranges and profit through the derivatives layer, creating a closed-loop profit cycle.
6. Regulatory Precedent
In 2025, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) released a 105-page enforcement document accusing Jane Street of market manipulation in the BANKNIFTY index options market. The report stated Jane Street profited 3.65 trillion Rupees (approx. $43 billion) over two years, with single-day profits reaching 73.5 billion Rupees.
7. 21,000,000 vs. Synthetic Supply
The Bitcoin supply is capped at 21,000,000—a protocol-level constraint. However, derivatives can create infinite price exposure. When the volume of financial layer contracts far exceeds the on-chain circulating supply, price discovery shifts toward the derivatives market. Ultimately, it becomes a mathematical question: What is Jane Street’s true net Bitcoin exposure? Under the current disclosure framework, that number is not public. Consequently, those few minutes at 10:00 AM daily have become the most visible signal beyond the data.
crypto has gone from 0-->1.
it's in the process of going from 1-->10 (powered by agentic commerce).
what got us here, won't get us there - not a huge surprise that early people are leaving.