72 Projections - Fantasy EFL #FEFL

Coming soon: Fantasy EFL xPoints projection site, built by three managers

Luke FEFL - 24/25: 7th, 25/26: 11th
Ed 26/27 FPL - 518th
Josh 25/26 FEFL - 158th

[72 Projections - Fantasy EFL #FEFL @72projections]

Markets have them at 38% for a clean sheet in the easy game, and then we project them at 24% to get one v Rovers - so overall, their defence ranks 9th this week and it's pretty tight between them all. 11.33 xPts as of this afternoon

Agreed, he's levels above - the Rovers fix is just a bit too tough to bet against for me personally this gw given some of the nice alternates available

[72 Projections - Fantasy EFL #FEFL @72projections]

GW10 Team Projections📊#FEFL

The Standout: Stockport County🔵
Unsurprisingly the clear number one this week, alongside many of their assets. Norwood and Wootton are the two towards the top of xPts charts, as expected, but Kyron Gordon (0.3%) or O'Connell (0.1%) in defence both appeal as differential options - Gordon boasting strong tackling numbers to go with the high xCS this week. I'll still go with the two classics!

[72 Projections - Fantasy EFL #FEFL @72projections]

@FPLAguero_ Would say it looks quite different, no?🤣

Anyway, there is more than one way to skin a cat!

[72 Projections - Fantasy EFL #FEFL @72projections]

Clean Sheets: Bradford🟠#FEFL
Perhaps unsurprisingly after 6 clean sheets in 9 so far this season, Bradford sit top of the projected clean sheets table for GW10.
- Stevenage (H) - 40% CS chance
- Burton (A) - 37% CS Chance

Baldwin at CCB is always appealing, but Pratt (0.2%) and Pennington (0.6%) to his left and right have both put up very similar numbers. However, none of them seem to have very high defcon ceilings, and Gillesphey is very likely to get a midweek start ahead of one of them - this potentially makes McCracken in goal the simple alternative

[72 Projections - Fantasy EFL #FEFL @72projections]

The Second Choice: Fine Margins #FEFL
Not much between the rest of the top teams, so it's a bit of a lottery, and a case of selecting whoever you've gone with the least so far. Given it is only Thursday, there will be lots of movement to keep an eye on among these 5-6, especially post line-ups.

One surprise exclusion was Sheffield Wednesday, way down the list with only 10.1 xPts and 0.59 xCS across the two games at present

[72 Projections - Fantasy EFL #FEFL @72projections]

@ffplcook Yeah think I agree on the whole, lots of good alternative mid options anyway this week. He is just the type of player that's way too good for Mansfield/Wigan level oppo so wouldn't be shocked by a masterclass

[72 Projections - Fantasy EFL #FEFL @72projections]

@ffplcook Will get something out this evening haha any specific requests? As long as you give us another differential of the week🤣

[72 Projections - Fantasy EFL #FEFL @72projections]

Good scores from all 3 of us, Ed in particular this gameweek!

All 3 of us backed Burnley and it paid off despite a late goal in the second game.

Plenty of strong showings from the top midfield picks, decided to back Madsen and it paid off!

Bowen feels inevitable…

#fefl

[72 Projections - Fantasy EFL #FEFL @72projections]

@ffplcook Madsen👏

[72 Projections - Fantasy EFL #FEFL @72projections]

Some last minute Bowen content to scare the non-owners... look at the state of his numbers and percentile rankings🤣

Can't bet against him myself - straight in as captain to watch him chuck a ball onto Mavropanos' head (0.16 xg for him tonight, similar v Lincoln)

Anyone going against the #whufc assets? Do like Madsen for QPR tonight, however there's some strong midfield options on the bench for them, so have him down as too unlikely to start midweek v Derby

#fefl

[72 Projections - Fantasy EFL #FEFL @72projections]

Yeah before having a proper look was set on him, but leaning way more towards flint as leading cb option or a grimsby one. Roth used to be the best clearances fixture, but looks like with Bruce in charge and some smaller strikers its flipped.

Hadn't looked at Scarr yet, but damn yeah not sure how hes ended up in league 2 - would assume he ends up a beast long term for clearances if keeps starting at CCB

Tbh fitz just has the makings of the classic fixture proof L2 cbs we see every year, but he is massively overperforming

[72 Projections - Fantasy EFL #FEFL @72projections]

The 26/27 Demetriou #fefl - is there any reason to go against Fitzwater in GW8? Much improved CS% this week at home, but @FeflThomas did raise some v good points re his sustainability + ceiling last week

Without going into as much detail, Rotherham doesn't appear a great fixture for CBs - only 2 CBs have hit double digits for clearances against them this season in the league (Faulker TRA - 11, Guthrie NOR 11), with CS wiped in both

In my team for now regardless, since he does just seem to be a magnet - here's his season history and what we're expecting from the #1 defender:

[72 Projections - Fantasy EFL #FEFL @72projections]

@Seb_Szulc Ngl the best reason for picking one is it gives an excuse for watching the early kick off

[72 Projections - Fantasy EFL #FEFL @72projections]

@ffplcook Yeah might have overlooked marsh a bit tbf, good creative stats last season as well - tbh tho i usually just feel drawn to picking the out and out striker every gameweek hence Bonis favouritism despite not really rating him

[72 Projections - Fantasy EFL #FEFL @72projections]

Early KO VC Hack: Chesterfield🔵#fefl

Seen some discussion feeling forced to go for a #Spireites player, and it does seem a bit of a no brainer for GW8. Taken a dive in this thread into if you should avoid the Bonis v Markandy debate, along with a brief look at McFadzean v the field.

For those who don't know, the VC Hack requires the early KO player to score 13-14ish+ points. In this scenario, a non-playing GK is captained, and any amount over this is your xPoint gain.
- Alternate captain (c7.5 xPoints loss)
- Removing your playing GK to captain a non-playing GK (c5.5 xPoints loss)
- VC must surpass 13 points to make up for the combined projected loss

[(not)fpl cook 👨‍🍳 @ffplcook]

How am I supposed to avoid one of these...

#FEFL

[72 Projections - Fantasy EFL #FEFL @72projections]

Verdict:
A straight debate between the two FWDs, barring any line up shocks. 2+ goal contributions (with 1+ goal) is likely all that is needed for a FWD to surpass the 13 point mark. There's just too many defensive options that beat McFadzean and his shoddy base scoring.

Overall, I'm backing Bonis - big fan of his improved minutes when scoring so far for his ceiling to take on the 26/27 form boys! (Marriott hat-trick v managerless Bradford is now inevitable) #fefl

[72 Projections - Fantasy EFL #FEFL @72projections]

McFadzean (0.3%)🔵v The Field (minus Fitzwater)

- With Fitzwater the standout defensive pick this week (7.71 xPoints), the debate is instead for using the VC hack on your 2nd/3rd DEF pick.
- Ranked 15th in GW8 defenders. 0.85 points behind McJannet (6.95) -Becomes value if VC hack adds 1+ xPoints.
- Hard to reach required VC score - the most likely route is an unlikely CS+goal (0.1 xG +38% CS), or a dominating defensive performance with a CS (very unlikely given historical base scoring).