@77forcefire5

[Grok @grok]

**No, the reported MOU does not say that.**

The agreement includes a standard **non-interference in internal affairs** clause (US respect for Iran's sovereignty). Public details from US officials and reports confirm points on ending hostilities, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, oil sanctions relief, and 60 days of further talks.

The specific claim of a **verbal agreement** that Trump would stop issuing statements of support to protesters, sending devices, or providing weapons is **not confirmed** in official accounts or mainstream reporting on the MOU. It's an addition from the thread.

Trump has publicly cited high protester death tolls (including the 42k figure) in the past. A broad non-interference clause doesn't automatically ban mentioning past events or human rights issues.

The core deal is real and preliminary — the extra protester restriction looks like unverified extrapolation.

[@77forcefire5 @77forcefire5]

@KheradName What if you were to ask your friends inside of Iran to also launch a massive demonstration there & for the same reason? But only getting them to commit to it after you request Netanyahu to provide air cover protection from above while they demonstrate?

[@77forcefire5 @77forcefire5]

@EstebanV333 @TousiTVOfficial @PahlaviReza Only because Israel & America instructed them to remain indoors. And not to return to and retake the streets until Trump, Netanyahu, and Pahlavi told them to. Except the call did not come. At least not yet.

[@77forcefire5 @77forcefire5]

@Fiery_Guardian @NiohBerg Thanks for explaining. In that case it might be Ghalibaf. He was the head negotiator while Vahidi is too extreme to talk to. Though I’ve had the impression that they both share power. Then I thought Vahidi was the main leader. So who knows.

[@77forcefire5 @77forcefire5]

To all Lion & Sun revolutionaries+the Iranian diaspora, the monarchists, the Israelis, & my fellow Americans currently in despair, I encourage all of you to visit my profile page here & to read my string of posts. Hopefully they’ll give you comfort.🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸

[@77forcefire5 @77forcefire5]

Cons for Lion & Sun revolutionaries: Vahidi & his war council, National Security Secretary Zolghari, Radan, & Ejel still live+the IRGC replenished themselves with foreign mercenaries & terrorists. But now the mercenaries can’t be paid. So another pro.🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸

[@77forcefire5 @77forcefire5]

Pros for Lion & Sun revolutionaries: Khamenei, Larijani, & Parkpoor, the 3 who gave the initial massacre orders+ the IRCG guy who cracked down on Mahsa AminI protests are all dead, 21,000 IRGC troops are neutralized, & Basij’s almost leaderless🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸

[@77forcefire5 @77forcefire5]

Despite cons👆🏽, the deal still cost the I.R. their 20% remaining grassroots base, their pragmatic & extremist hardline factions have turned on each other, & they can’t pay police or mercenaries. Which smooths the way for Iranians to rise up for now.🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸

[@77forcefire5 @77forcefire5]

Post ceasefire pros: Khamenei‘s dead, the I.R’s axis is shattered with Hamas mostly decimated & leaderless+Hezbollah almost neutered+Assad gone+Iraq cracking down on Shia terrorists, they lost $100,000,000, & Israel in turn is the main regional power🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸

[@77forcefire5 @77forcefire5]

Post ceasefire cons: The I.R. while severely weakened from the war isn’t gone, Vahidi, Ghalibaf, Radan, & Ejel still live, we had to lift the blockade which may give I.R. money without sanctions lifted, & Israel can’t strike I.R. unless struck first.🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸

[@77forcefire5 @77forcefire5]

We must also remember 3 truths: Trump‘s still ready for the military option if the I.R. does not honor its end, the I.R. is dishonorable, & either way it’s inevitable they’ll attack Israel since Israel will likely attack Beirut again. And game over I.R.🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸

[@77forcefire5 @77forcefire5]

Despite how bad this might look, we must accept this deal is not the end of the story. Instead let’s wait until Friday to see if the I.R. & my U.S. nation sign. Then we’ll know if we’ve won or lost this battle. But even that’s not the end.🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸

[@77forcefire5 @77forcefire5]

For even if they do sign, we’ll still need to wait until Aug 19th to see if the Islamic Republic honors its end. But this story is not over. There’s 1 week then 2 months left. So let’s not despair yet. Besides Israel might derail it this week.🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸

[@77forcefire5 @77forcefire5]

@Fiery_Guardian @NiohBerg His replacement is named Zolghari. And it might’ve been the IRGC, Vahidi & his war council in particular, who appointed him. I assume Zolghari is part of the extremist faction of the hardliners. Vahidi’s camp. Instead of Ghalibaf’s pragmatic hardline faction.

[@77forcefire5 @77forcefire5]

@netanyahu @Israel_katz

[ـــه @HeKasrehCrisis]

Netanyahu is in a mess of his own making and Israel is in a worse place because of it. I’ll explain why:

On August 12th 2025, weeks after Trump prematurely forced an end to the 12-day war and saving Khamenei’s life, @netanyahu sent a message to the people of Iran that couldn’t be any more clear: “take to the streets, you are not alone, I stand with you, Israel stands with you.”
He repeated that same message again on September 30th, 2025.

In December, anti-regime protests broke out in multiple major cities across the country and by early January it spread nationwide. On January 6th, 2026, Crown Prince @PahlaviReza issued a first of its kind call to protest for Jan 8th and 9th. By then, Netanyahu and Israel had weeks, if not months, to prepare for the moment.

On January 8th and 9th, millions of Iranians took to the streets across the entire country. Towns, villages, major cities, you name it, in all 4 corners of the country. In many locations protesters either took over government institutions or got very close to doing it. The regime itself claims that many cities fell on Jan 8th and 9th.

What did Netanyahu or Israel do? Absolutely nothing. Sat back and watched thousands upon thousands of protesters get massacred by the regime. The once in a lifetime golden opportunity to help people take down the regime with negligible cost for Israel and very little effort from the IDF was lost just like that.

What could Israel do on those 2 nights and didn’t?
- Khamenei and his top commanders could have been taken out just like they were on Feb 28th
- The regime security council meeting on the evening of Jan 8th, in which the order of the brutal crackdown was decided, signed, and transmitted down the chain of command, could have been targeted. This would have broken the regime’s command and control at a time it was the closest to collapse as it has ever been.
- Protesters in a couple of major cities could have received air support from drones. The mere existence of them in the skies overhead without even firing a single shot could have been the deciding factor on the ground, let alone them targeting some of basij or IRGC forces in Tehran.
- IRIB could have been targeted. IRIB shutting down would have been the most devastating blow to the moral of the regime forces and a significant boost for the protesters’.

The mess we’re all in today is the direct result of Netanyahu’s deadly inaction on Jan 8th and 9th but the mistakes didn’t end there.
The second mistake was letting Trump completely rule the direction of the war in the first 3 weeks. Primarily, complying with Trump’s no-kill list that included the Army and Police leadership as well as the regime figures like Ghalibaf and Araghchi who are now fooling Trump with an illusion of a “peace” deal. Israel should have taken the lead and decided its own targets based on its own interests.

I’m not saying all these to be the captain hindsight here. I’m saying it because I think it’s possible that in the near future, we end up in similar situations and we simply cannot have these mistakes made again because the next opportunity could be our last.

[@77forcefire5 @77forcefire5]

@AntSpeaks Plus the deal cost the I.R. their remaining 20% grassroots support base who see it as surrender & are threatening an uprising against Ghalibaf. And if the I.R. & their radical civilian base rip each other apart, that smooths Iran’s path against the I.R.

[@77forcefire5 @77forcefire5]

@AntSpeaks The 3 men who sent initial orders for the massacre are dead, the Basij is almost devoid of direct commanders, 21,000 of the IRGC’s ground forces are neutralized, & 3 bridges are damaged which stops some IRGC units from linking up, & mercenaries can’t be paid.

[@77forcefire5 @77forcefire5]

@aj_geo_analysis @JoeCool_SC Besides what Joe Cool stated, you also did not list that the I.R.’s remaining grassroots support base hates the deal, is threatening an uprising against Ghalibaf tonight which might cause an I.R. civil war, & Trump is adamant he won’t release cash to them.

[@77forcefire5 @77forcefire5]

@bonchieredstate Trump & his team strongly & repeatedly stated they WONT be giving cash to the Islamic Republic. And if you noticed, this “deal” is eroding the I.R.’s remaining 20% & radical civilian support base who are now threatening an uprising to save I.R. from Ghalibaf.

[@77forcefire5 @77forcefire5]

@howardbasker @PahlaviReza If they do that, those women will probably fight back. And if the security forces get involved to back the regime’s supporters, then Iranians might come to the women’s aid. And then Iran might not wait for Pahlavi’s final call before taking the streets.