Colleen Gosse

♫♫ Music to Me, is Like Breathing - I Don't Get Tried of Breathing, I Don't Get Tried of Music ♫♫ TA #wine lover

[The Bible @The__Bible7]

1 Corinthians 13:8

[The Telegram @StJohnsTelegram]

Badger continues its river watch as water levels causes evacuations https://t.co/TexUiLw4SX

[Eddie Sheerr @EddieSheerr]

When forecasting snowfall for a given area, it's important to consult the ensemble forecasts from a model. A weather model ensemble is a group of many model runs instead of just one forecast. #nlwx

Each run starts with slightly different conditions to show a range of possible outcomes. When members cluster together, confidence is high; when they spread out, uncertainty is higher.

When forecasting snowfall, you can use percentiles for a given time frame to show the low-end, most likely, and high-end amounts for a region or location. When those values start to converge, that shows there is agreement among the ensemble forecasts and leads to higher confidence in a forecast by the meteorologist or enthusiast consuming the data.

In this example, we will examine the ECMWF ensemble output for St. John's (YYT) between Sunday evening and Tuesday evening:

Low End: ~30 cm
Most Likely: ~40 cm
High End: ~48 cm

This indicates a range of roughly 30 to 50 cm for the metro area, which is reasonable given the setup. The question I have is whether the snow will change to ice pellets and/or freezing rain on Monday afternoon for a few hours, after heavy snow Sunday night into Monday morning and before another round on Monday night?

If that occurs, the total will be closer to 30 cm; if it doesn't, the total will exceed 40 cm.

Details to come for a wider area in an update this afternoon. But hopefully that insight helps.

The map below shows the most likely outcome as of early Saturday morning. Keep in mind that it is subject ot change.

[🇨🇦 @GrayMarker99]

A January 2026 collage of photos.
Colours in the Snow.

#January #photograghy

[Eddie Sheerr @EddieSheerr]

WEATHER ALERT(S) | JAN 30, 2026

An Orange Level Winter Storm Watch is in effect for eastern Newfoundland and the Avalon Peninsula from Sunday night through Tuesday afternoon for 30 to 50 cm of snow and wind gusts as high as 110 km/h from the northeast. #nlwx

There is a chance that parts of the Avalon, likely the southeast, see a change to ice pellets, freezing rain, and rain Monday afternoon. That change could happen farther north as well, but it appears less likely than more likely at this time.

A Yellow Level Winter Storm Watch is in effect for areas just to the west for 20 to 35 cm of snow and wind gusts as high as 100 km/h from the northeast.
,
This alert comes from Environment Canada and while my forecasts can differ, my thinking is currently very much in line with this.

Updates to follow.

[Eddie Sheerr @EddieSheerr]

The incoming winter storm will bring higher-than-normal water levels due to large waves and storm surge for many shorelines of Newfoundland between Monday and Tuesday. The greatest risk of high water will be around the high tide(s). #nlwx

https://t.co/RzYdylvlHR

[Colleen Gosse @7Nipper7]

Good morning @CISNCountry @Randy_Marshall and the cisn crew. Good to hear you raised some much, awesome.
Having my last bite of Candy Cane hot chocolate, probably should have kept it for the storm coming Sunday night and all day Monday 😔.

[Colleen Gosse @7Nipper7]

Good morning @CISNCountry and @Randy_Marshall . Good to be able to hear you again this morning.
Have a great day everyone 💗😊

[Colleen Gosse @7Nipper7]

Good morning friends 😊, it's been too long being disconnected.
Have a wonderful year!!!

[Colleen Gosse @7Nipper7]

Thanks @CISNCountry and @Randy_Marshall for the shout out always listen from newfoundland

[Colleen Gosse @7Nipper7]

Miata123 Racing Live Stream https://t.co/v3zHnInbcX via @YouTube

[Colleen Gosse @7Nipper7]

@CISNCountry @Randymar Thanks for the Shout out....🥰

[Colleen Gosse @7Nipper7]

Good morning from Newfoundland! Xxx

[Eddie Sheerr @EddieSheerr]

Stunning!

📸 Kenneth G Griffiths
📌 Ship Harbour (Placentia Bay)

#NLwx

[Colleen Gosse @7Nipper7]

Jelly Roll Sings Unreleased Track ‘I Am Not OK’ on The Voice – Here Are the Lyrics https://t.co/JrG7FYKmvh @tasteofcountry

“I know one day, we'll see the other side
The pain will wash away, in a holy water tide
We all gonna be alright”

[Colleen Gosse @7Nipper7]

There Was Jesus https://t.co/lj9egjLSxw via @YouTubeMusic

[Colleen Gosse @7Nipper7]

Dana Winner - One Moment In Time live https://t.co/vbR6htMKXb via @YouTube

[Colleen Gosse @7Nipper7]

Zach Williams, Dolly Parton - There Was Jesus (Official Music Video) https://t.co/WAn9rLlfMV via @YouTube

[Colleen Gosse @7Nipper7]

Chris Norman, Suzi Quatro - Stumblin' in (Official Video) https://t.co/S5RFRKxW6K via @YouTube

[Colleen Gosse @7Nipper7]

Keith Urban - Brown Eyes Baby (Official Lyric Video) https://t.co/vBiawcJDZt via @YouTube