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Geoffrey Hinton says superintelligence is likely within 20 years, and AI is advancing faster than he expected.
- Just two decades ago, only a few hundred researchers worked on neural networks. Today, it's closer to a million.
- AI is already producing original mathematical discoveries that impress professional mathematicians, not just retrieving knowledge from existing literature.
- Hinton believes mathematics is a perfect domain for AI self-improvement because models can generate new conjectures, test proofs, and learn continuously, much like AlphaGo learned by playing against itself.
- He says today's chatbots are already close to AGI, answering most questions at the level of a "not very good expert" and outperforming humans in many areas outside their expertise.
- While experts disagree on when superintelligence will arrive, Hinton says there is little disagreement that it eventually will. His estimate is within the next 20 years.
We may still be at the very beginning of the AI revolution. Humanity has never scaled intelligence this quickly.
“Earlier this year Chinese developers were pessimistic about the prospect of their models outclassing American ones before 2030. After Zhipu’s release, Elon Musk…expects China to match the abilities of the current frontier by early next year.”
https://t.co/vzBZnj4J3A
“Most Chinese models are released open-source, meaning they can be downloaded and run on local hardware, out of reach of governments or the labs themselves. But the American government could one day impose limits on the domestic use of Chinese AI.”
https://t.co/vzBZnj5gT8
Meet Kevin reveals he spent $3,000,000/year owning his $12,900,000 private jet👀
Kevin: “Probably $3,000,000 per year…”
Graham Stephan: “Was that stressful?”
Kevin: “Yea”
**Brent futures (paper market) haven't caught up to Dated Brent (physical/spot) because they price *future* delivery—typically 1-2 months out—while physical reflects *immediate* tightness right now.**
Futures are betting the Hormuz disruptions ease and supply normalizes soon. Physical buyers (refineries) are scrambling for barrels *today*, driving the $20-30+/bbl premium we've seen. This extreme backwardation is classic in acute short-term shocks.
If futures equalized upward to current physical levels, retail pump prices **would rise**, but with lags (usually 2-4 weeks) and incomplete pass-through. Crude is roughly 50% of U.S. gasoline cost; historical estimates show ~55% long-run pass-through. Rule of thumb: +$10/bbl crude ≈ +25¢/gal at the pump (varies by region, taxes, refining margins). A $25 jump could mean +60¢/gal eventually—not 1:1 or instant.
**The global oil market is currently in a significant deficit due to Middle East conflict disruptions (Strait of Hormuz issues slashing Gulf supply by ~12-14 mb/d at peaks).**
IEA's May 2026 report: 2026 supply ~102.2 mb/d vs. demand ~104 mb/d (1.8 mb/d deficit overall), with even tighter Q2 draws (inventories falling at record pace, matching the large US drop you referenced).
Short-run price elasticity of crude demand is low/inelastic. Estimates suggest a $10/bbl Brent rise reduces global demand by ~0.2-0.6 mb/d (higher end at current ~$105-110/bbl levels), varying by economic conditions and product margins.
Physical/Dated Brent spot prices have traded at a substantial premium to Brent futures recently ($20-30+/bbl in tight periods) due to immediate availability shortages vs. paper market. Spreads remain elevated amid ongoing volatility.
After Trump's summit in Beijing, I asked Matt Pottinger, the deputy national security adviser in Trump 1.0, and the scholar @jessicacweiss what was achieved.
"If higher energy prices create an inflationary shock, China is much better able to weather that storm than countries further to the west."
@davidlubin on the impact of the US-Iran war on China's economy⤵️
"I think we are literally at such a historic pivot point in terms of China's development."
@JKynge (@CHAsiaPacific) on China's growing technological prowess with artificial intelligence⤵️
Some days, the world takes a small step towards a global reshuffling. Other days, it's more of a leap. Looks like we're having one of those "leap" days.
#globalization#geopolitics
Philip Martin predicts the pace of cyber attacks will accelerate across the board.
DeFi is the most exposed sector because the shared context of onchain data removes the defender's information edge.
The transparency that makes DeFi trustworthy is the same transparency that gives AI-powered attackers equal footing.
Philip Martin, CSO at Coinbase, on why the Q day debate is genuinely unresolved:
"Very smart, well-informed people at the forefront of this field have wildly divergent opinions — not just on when, but on whether Q day is coming at all."
"The pace of breakthroughs is making it harder to say never. But we're still doing basic research."
"There's no clear technique that gets us from here to a cryptographically relevant quantum computer."
Is Claude Mythos a serious attack vector for Coinbase?
Philip Martin, CSO at Coinbase: "Not today, but these models are tightly controlled."
"I'm worried about a year or two when efficiency improves and open-weight models hit comparable performance."
"Anthropic and others are being very careful with how these models come out. They want to make sure defenders have enough of a head start to patch things."
Amos Hochstein, who served as a top energy and national security advisor during the Biden administration, says “ahead of Memorial Day in the summer, tickets are going to be very expensive” due to the increase in jet fuel prices.
“When a plane leaves the United States, they can't take jet fuel with them,” he says. “The administration has been saying we have plenty in the U.S. – great.” However, he adds, “when jet fuel is expensive in the rest of the world, it is also expensive here.”
Today, President Trump railed against Iran’s decision to close the Strait of Hormuz, calling it "A Total Violation of our Ceasefire Agreement." He also confirmed US negotiators will be in Pakistan tomorrow for a second round of talks. How are leaders in Tehran thinking about negotiations with Washington? Part 1 of my conversation with @SAISHopkins’ @vali_nasr:
Nobel Laureate Sir Roger Penrose explains, the center of a black hole contains a region where density and the curvature of spacetime become infinite. When physicists try to calculate what happens at this ultimate edge, Albert Einstein's equations simply run away to infinity and stop working.
It is a place where an entire star is crushed down to an effective size of zero; a mind-bending cosmic boundary proving that there are still profound mysteries in the dark that our greatest science cannot yet explain.